There are only seven races remaining in the 2023 Formula 1 season and the drivers' championship and constructors' championship are virtual certainties with Max Verstappen holding a 151-point lead over teammate Sergio Perez and Red Bull holding a whopping 308-point lead over Mercedes. However, there's a sense of optimism heading into the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix on Sunday after Carlos Sainz and Ferrari finally ended Red Bull's 15-race winning streak and Verstappen's 10-race streak last week in Singapore. So can the rest of the field continue to narrow the gap at Suzuka Circuit in Japan this week or will Red Bull reestablish its dominance when the green flag drops at 1 a.m. ET?
Verstappen is the -333 favorite (bet $333 to win $100) in the latest 2023 Japanese Grand Prix odds, followed by Perez at +1200. McLaren's Lando Norris, who has three runner-up finishes in his last six races, is priced at +1400 followed by Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton and Sainz at +1800 in the Japanese GP odds. Before analyzing the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix starting grid and making any Formula 1 picks, be sure to check out the latest 2023 Japanese GP predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary Formula 1 prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results. It's had a strong history of success in motorsports, correctly predicting nine NASCAR winners since the 2021 season and its projected leaderboards have forecasted winners across multiple racing formats.
The model has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 race events dating back to 2021. It nailed both of Charles Leclerc's wins in 2022, and at the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix, the model was strongly backing Verstappen as its top pick. The result: Verstappen dominated the field and ran away with a surprise victory.
The model followed that up by calling Verstappen's win at the Rolex Emilia Romagna GP in April and then nailed his wins again in Belgium, the Netherlands, Japan, the United States, Mexico and Abu Dhabi. It's also nailed all 12 of Verstappen's wins so far in the 2023 season. Anyone who followed the model's lead on those plays has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has dialed in on the 2023 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix and just released its coveted picks and leaderboard projections. You can head to SportsLine now to see the complete 2023 Japanese Grand Prix leaderboard projection.
Top 2023 Formula 1 Japanese GP predictions
One surprise: The model is fading Sainz even though he is coming off a win and is tied for fourth favorite at +1800. Ferrari made up significant ground on Mercedes with Sainz winning, Leclerc finishing fourth and George Russell retired late in the race while battling for a podium place. However, it's still a team that is incredibly difficult to trust on a weekly basis because of strategic blunders, mechanical errors and driver mishaps.
As a team, Ferraris were retired nine times last season and they've been retired four times this season as well. Seven of those retirements went to Sainz, including an early retirement in Japan with brutal weather conditions last year. He's only finished better than 10th once in six career starts in the Japanese Grand Prix and the model is predicting that he finishes outside the top five for the eighth time this season. See who else the model is backing and fading at the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix right here.
How to make 2023 Japanese Grand Prix picks
The model is also targeting multiple longshots getting F1 odds of 20-1 or longer to make a surprising surge up the leaderboard. Anyone who backs them could hit it big. You can find out who they are, and see all of the model's F1 picks and predictions, at SportsLine.
So who wins the Japanese Grand Prix 2023, and which under-the-radar drivers make a stunning charge toward the front? Check out the latest 2023 F1 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Japanese Grand Prix leaderboard, all from the model that has already nailed all 11 of Verstappen's wins this season, and find out.
2023 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix odds, field, top contenders
See F1 Japanese Grand Prix picks at SportsLine.
Max Verstappen -333
Sergio Perez +1200
Lando Norris +1400
Carlos Sainz +1800
Lewis Hamilton +1800
Charles Leclerc +2000
George Russell +2200
Oscar Piastri +2800
Fernando Alonso +5000
Pierre Gasly +25000
Esteban Ocon +25000
Lance Stroll +30000
Alexander Albon +30000
Yuki Tsunoda +50000
Liam Lawson +50000
Nico Hulkenberg +75000
Kevin Magnussen +75000
Valtteri Bottas +100000
Logan Sargeant +100000
Guanyu Zhou +100000