Over the past 10 years I wish had kept track of the consensus trends in draft advice. It would be fun to watch the wisdom change after one or two years of data and then watch it swing wildly in the other direction after new evidence appeared. Of course, what I'm mostly talking about is running backs and just how volatile they are. Judging by current NFC ADP, the current conventional wisdom is that they aren't that volatile at all.
In the month of June, there were an average of nine running backs selected in Round 1. I'm not even sure I disagree with that large number, even in PPR. But by the end of Round 4 we've had 24 running backs off the board. Then nearly half of the Round 5 picks are also running backs. The response to "elite running backs are hard to find" seems to be that we should just draft all of the running backs much earlier than before.
While this trend started last year, it was given a lot of power by just how poorly the elite wide receivers fared in 2019. To be more clear, five of the first seven running backs drafted last year failed to meet expectations. Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell were all
. And if you drafted them in the first round, you probably had a bad time.
The response in 2020? Let's double down. And nowhere is that more evident than with the rookie running backs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (18.7), Jonathan Taylor (32.6), Cam Akers (51.4) and D'Andre Swift (54.5) are all being drafted in the first 55 picks. Last year only David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs were drafted that high, with middling results. The difference is that Montgomery and Jacobs were drafted into situations where they were the clear early down backs. They also had the benefit of rookie camp and OTAs to prove their mettle. This year's class got neither, and they have plenty of competition.
- Edwards-Helaire will have to unseat Damien Williams, who should arguably be the reigning Super Bowl MVP.
- Taylor will share early-down work with Marlon Mack and has very little chance of taking Nyheim Hines off the field on third downs.
- Akers is in a three-headed battle with Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson, and Rams coaches are talking about using all three in a committee.
- Swift has to beat out Kerryon Johnson, and the Lions haven't had a 1,000-yard rusher since Reggie Bush in 2013.
Now it's time for a couple of distinctions that may or may not help my point. I firmly believe Edwards-Helaire and Taylor are in situations that, if they take the majority of touches at some point, they could be top 12 running backs. I just don't believe that will happen early enough in the year for them to justify a second- or third-round pick. And if your second- or third-round pick is bad for the first month of the season, it's easy to find yourself on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Still, I see the same upside everyone else does.
Also, in the past five years there have been 12 running backs drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft and drafted as a top-30 back by Fantasy Football ADP in their rookie year. Eight of the 12 finished within three spots of their ADP or better. Two caveats are that first-round picks fared far better than second-round picks and the higher the rookie's ADP was, the better they fared. Rookies drafted between RB20 and RB30 failed more often than they hit.
The last paragraph make me far less comfortable including Edwards-Helaire in this group of rookie busts. I just wish he wasn't being drafted in the second round.
Here are eight more 2020 bust canddiates who aren't rookies:
This one is weird, because I'm usually defending Aaron Jones in our CBS conversations. But with an ADP in the early second round, we'd all agree he's a bust. Jones' coming touchdown regression is obvious, so is the fact that the Packers only used him as a feature back when Jamaal Williams wasn't available. Also, a huge chunk of Jones' targets came when Davante Adams was hurt. I haven't even mentioned the fact that the Packers drafted A.J. Dillon, who is a prime candidate to steal some short-yardage work. Jones is a fine No. 2 back in the third round, but he has way too much bust risk at this cost.
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Because running backs are going so early, you really have to look more at where the receivers are being drafted. DeAndre Hopkins is currently the third receiver off the board, and that's terrifying to me. Last year's 7.8 yards per target was the second-lowest mark of Hopkins career and that matters because he figures to see a serious reduction in targets. Kliff Kingsbury runs a spread offense and targets will be spread around between Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald and Kenyan Drake. If you give Hopkins 140 targets at his career efficiency you're looking at 1,148 yards and seven scores. And there's no guarantee he matches his career efficiency with a less experienced quarterback.
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I always need to put at least one quarterback on the list if only to remind you that all of the quarterbacks are being drafted too early. But Jackson will probably be a first-round pick in a majority of CBS leagues, and that is a huge mistake. Regression will take away up to a dozen passing touchdowns and up to 400 rushing yards. Even if Jackson plays 16 games, you shouldn't expect him to match last year's production and he's one of the biggest injury risks at the position. There is no way you should draft him in the first two rounds of a one-quarterback league.
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At the beginning of the offseason I expected to draft a lot of Leonard Fournette. He was due for some massive touchdown regression, and I had him ranked as a first-round pick. Nearly everything has gone wrong since then. Offensive coordinator John DeFilippo was replaced by Jay Gruden, and Gruden brought pass-catching back Chris Thompson with him from Washington. Of course there was also the two-week period where the Jaguars were actively trying to deal Fournette. Maybe they've mended fences, but the odds of Fournette playing 16 games as a feature back in Jacksonville don't seem great. The odds of them giving him 100 targets again appear to be near zero.
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I would really like to call Odell Beckham a bounce-back candidate, and I do expect he'll score at a higher rate than he did in 2019. I could even see Beckham getting the Stefon Diggs role from Kevin Stefanski's offense, which could lead to a huge efficiency increase. But Stefanski also ran one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league and Beckham will have to battle Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb for touches. Barring an injury to someone else, it's hard to see how Beckham's target total doesn't go down. I don't hate his actual ADP, but he shouldn't be drafted as a top 10 wide receiver.
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While I had to put qualifications on a lot of the bust picks, there are none necessary here. Raheem Mostert is a 28-year-old who has never topped 137 carries playing for a coach who firmly believes in a committee approach. Mostert won't see more than 15 carries per game and his work in the passing game is in serious question. He only had one game last season with more than three targets, and he had one catch or fewer in more than half of his games. I wouldn't draft him in the sixth round of a PPR draft, much less the fourth.
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Count me out on the Johnson hype. He was a mediocre prospect with mediocre college production, and his rookie year wasn't all that special either. At best he'll be the No. 2 behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, but he has extra competition this year with the additions of Eric Ebron and Chase Claypool. There is no justification for drafting him before Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks or Marvin Jones.
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It's tough to call a 10th-round pick a bust, but if you count on Cook as your starting tight end you will not be pleased. His production in the second half was wholly unsustainable even if the team didn't sign Emmanuel Sanders. Cook only had six games with more than four targets last year. He'll be a touchdown-dependent streamer, not someone you should draft as a starter.
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So which Fantasy football busts should you completely avoid? And which running back going off the board early should you fade? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that called Baker Mayfield's disappointing season, and find out.