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Last week, I wrote about keeping a long view when preseason hype season is in full effect. Let's take a look at a few guys I've moved up or down my rankings recently, and why.
Risers
You'll see more Jets in this section, and it's in large part because of how Darnold has looked thus far in the preseason. There's reason to still be a bit wary — specifically play volume concerns under Adam Gase — but Darnold has shown enough to be worthy of moving into the big cluster of QB2s I'd be willing to start in SuperFlex formats. There's enough talent in this offense and we've seen enough of a step forward to think this passing offense has more upside than their collective Average Draft Positions suggest.
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Add in Matt Breida, but I've been high on him for some time. The long view is simple: Kyle Shanahan's running backs produce. Sharp Football's Rich Hribar pointed out earlier this offseason San Francisco's running backs combined for the fifth most yards from scrimmage last season, and that was on a 4-12 team. Jimmy Garoppolo's preseason struggles are less concerning than the bump both Coleman and Breida see with news Jerick McKinnon is unlikely to be ready and perhaps even an IR candidate to start the season. The 49ers start at Tampa, then at Cincinnati, before returning home against Pittsburgh, making both Coleman and Breida Fantasy start-worthy in September on teams where you go light at RB in drafts.
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Le'Veon Bell did not play in the Jets' second preseason game in Atlanta. Darnold played three series, totaling 16 offensive snaps. Montgomery played on all 16 of those snaps, splitting out wide twice in empty sets, then didn't play any additional snaps after the first-teamers left the game. With plenty of backs on the roster, it hasn't been clear who the No. 2 would be, but right now it looks evident it will be Montgomery, a back who has always commanded the type of receiving work that unlocks Fantasy upside. He's a worthy late-round option.
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Crowder broke out early in his Duke career, something that made him a popular sleeper multiple times in his Washington career. We can't ignore the overall lack of production there, but context does matter, and Washington's passing games have rarely produced much receiving production overall. Now in an Adam Gase offense that has often meant big production for slot receivers, and working with a quarterback in Sam Darnold that has similarly favored slot receivers dating back to college, Crowder is a worthwhile PPR bet as a potential fifth-year NFL breakout.
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Per Adam Levitan, Howard has been in on 21 of Jameis Winston's 22 snaps so far this preseason. The long view with Howard is it's exceptionally likely he will be, and perhaps already is, an elite tight end. He has the athletic profile, and his efficiency through two seasons has been off the charts. Evan Engram is a safer play for target volume, but I've been very high on Howard all offseason because of his long-term skill set. He's my TE4 as the upside bet I want to make on the hope this is his breakout Fantasy season.
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Fallers
It wasn't so much that Damien Williams played all five snaps with the first team, then Hyde came in for the second series (and lost a fumble), then Hyde stayed on to play with the second team, usage that made Williams look like the clear starter. No, it was more about the way the first team offense changed its whole look with Hyde in the game. In the first series, the Chiefs went shotgun and frequently empty backfield, with Williams split out wide. As soon as Hyde entered, they were under center running up the middle. It may be confirmation bias, but there couldn't have been a more perfect encapsulation of what I've been saying all offseason about Hyde not fitting what the Chiefs want to do offensively. Darwin Thompson is the Chiefs' No. 2 to draft.
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The long view is McCoy is 31. There's little reason to believe he'll be a Fantasy producer late into the 2019 season, and even though he looks like a clear discount to early-season projections, Devin Singletary is doing enough this preseason to emphasize that he'll be involved. Rookie usage trends tell us that involvement is likely to expand throughout the season. There's just very little upside with a McCoy pick at any point in the draft, and there are only so many roster spots. You'll have better options early in the year, and you'll very likely have better options later, as well.
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Jimmy Garoppolo issues aside, Pettis isn't seeing legitimate No. 1 usage in the preseason, something that is likely a requirement for a positive return on his ADP given George Kittle's presence as the real No. 1 option in the passing game. Pettis flashed and put up strong efficiency numbers last season, but the 49ers look headed toward a rotation of sorts at WR, something that moves all of their options down my board a few notches.
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If DeVante Parker is a July workout Hall of Fame first-teamer, Moncrief is at worst on the second team. Hyped again this offseason, Moncrief is still a player who has gone over 80 receiving yards just six times in his career, in 72 games played (playoffs included). In 82% of his career games, he's had fewer than 60 receiving yards. James Washington might not be the answer, but he's flashing this preseason, and it's a reminder we know a lot less about what he is as a player heading into his second season than we do about Moncrief, who is entering his sixth.
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The connection between Lamar Jackson and Andrews is well-documented, but so too is the Ravens' history of using multiple tight ends. And so far this preseason, they've rotated heavily, leaving Andrews with insufficient playing time given he's already in perhaps the lowest-volume passing offense in the league. He'll make some splash plays and put up some solid weeks, but he'll also have a few donuts this season, and that makes him a tough pick in anything other than best-ball formats.
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