Didn't go the way you planned it, eh?
That big starting pitcher investment, the one you thought would set your team apart, has set it apart, all right, but at the wrong end of the standings. You're in such an early hole that you can't even see daylight and would come closer to punting that pitcher to the moon than starting him again.
But I'm here to tell you it's going to be OK.
I could do so with the usual generalities -- long season, small sample, etc. -- and it would be correct. But I'd rather get into specifics here and put your mind at ease about seven pitchers in particular.
Pinpoint command has allowed Aaron Nola to thrive despite having a fairly ordinary fastball, but we've seen in recent years what can happen when that command slips a little, often for less-than-obvious reasons. We've learned, for instance, that the location of the pitch clock had much to do with last year's struggles. He was looking at the one behind the right-handed batter's box, which led to him closing his shoulder and leaving pitches over the fat part of the plate. While the cause may have been different in his season debut Saturday, the symptoms were much the same and the consequences more acute given the opposing lineup. We've seen him self-correct enough times in the past to trust that he'll do it again. Just recognize that ups and downs are part of the package.
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For the other six of these pitchers, we're talking about only one start. But Joe Musgrove has made two already, thanks to the Padres' early trip to South Korea, and neither went well. You may also recall that he missed the final two months of last season with shoulder inflammation, so who's to say if he's even healthy right now? And did you see his spring stat line? Egad. Add it all up, and it's almost as bad as when he had a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through five starts last season -- you know, before bringing them down to 3.05 and 1.14. Musgrove has been about as reliable as a pitcher can be since joining the Padres in 2021. He had some mechanical issues this spring and sometimes struggles to find the right pitch mix, given his vast arsenal, but we've been down this road enough with him before that you can feel confident he'll turn things around.
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The eight earned runs in 1 1/3 innings are one thing. Any pitcher can have a start where things snowball on him like that. The one whiff on 53 pitches is what really takes me aback because it's a purer reflection of skill. You almost never see that for pitchers as good as Ober, whose season low last year was six, and I'm at a loss to explain it. The fastball was actually a mile per hour harder than last year, and nothing else in the data raises alarm for me. The start was so out of step with what we know Ober to be that I can't help but think he was tipping his pitches somehow. No one with the Twins has suggested as much, at least not publicly, I can't promise this outing will be a one-off. Whatever he's suffering from, though, should be correctable.
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Mitch Keller is so rarely the same pitcher from one start to the next that to assess him by any one start is a fool's errand. He has six pitches, three of which could be his most used on a given day, and his velocity is known to fluctuate as well. It's why you shouldn't be alarmed that his fastball was down 1.4 mph in his season debut Thursday at the Marlins. Yes, he gave up a few too many hits and recorded a few to few strikeouts, but he also had an average exit velocity of 87.0 mph and 14 swinging strikes, including at least four on each of his cutter, fastball and sweeper. So there was a mix of good and bad for a pitcher who looked like an ace for most of 2023, basically until a couple of late disaster starts corrupted an otherwise stellar stat line.
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The most concerning stat for Ryan Pepiot's Rays debut was the four walks. He struggled with control for most of his time in the Dodgers organization, and his huge gains in that area last year are what keyed his breakthrough. But there were no signs of trouble this spring, when he issued a total of four walks for a 1.9 BB/9 rate. He had a full head of steam coming into the season, having allowed a total of one run on three hits with one walk and 14 strikeouts in his final 11 spring innings. Mostly, it was the first inning that did him in Monday. He had trouble getting a feel for his changeup and walked the first two batters. He went on to throw 69 percent of his pitches for strikes in innings two through five, though. He's also with the Rays now, whose history of bringing out the best in pitchers is unparalleled.
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My take on A.J. Puk's terrible debut is that there's no take to have. The performance was so out of character that there must have been some sort of external factor at play -- one which denies us the possibility of an honest assessment. Puk and manager Skip Schumaker both cited a difficulty gripping the ball on a muggy day with the roof open in South Florida, which would certainly qualify. The walks are the dead giveaway. Puk had 2.6 per nine innings this spring and 2.1 per nine last season. By comparison, the strikeouts were 15.1 and 12.4 per nine, respectively, which is why I'm unwilling to throw out the baby with the bathwater here. The upside for Puk is too high and too palpable to abandon it over some black sheep event. Try your hardest to hold onto him.
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The Mets blamed Luis Severino's poor 2023 on a pitch-tipping issue that they said was an "easy fix," and he seemed to validate that theory by allowing just two earned runs in 14 1/3 innings this spring. His first regular season start was more reminiscent of the 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP he put together for the Yankees last season, though, so it's only natural to think that all of the pitch-tipping talk was phoney baloney. I'm not as resolute about holding onto Severino as I am A.J. Puk, but there's another possible explanation for him getting knocked around Saturday. The break on his best pitch pitch, the slider, was way down, with him citing the cold weather (54 degrees) as a possible reason why. It's worth giving him a chance under more normal conditions, if you can afford to.
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