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USATSI

Just like with the biggest ADP risers, we're looking at the biggest fallers in ADP from January to February in NFBC leagues. In some of these instances, the reasons they're falling make a lot of sense: Spring training injuries will rightly cause your value to tumble. But some of these guys are falling for no apparent reason. I look into the 10 biggest drops since the start of January to see if you should be buying the dip or let them keep falling. Whether it's detailing the fantasy impact of injuries to players like Kyle Bradish or Walker Buehler working through kinks in his deliver following Tommy John surgery, I'll walk you through which fallers you may want to consider in your next draft. 

Before we get to the biggest ADP fallers here's a sampling of what you might have missed from us lately:

Kyle Bradish, SP, Orioles -- Feb ADP: 280.96 (-186.83)

Why he's falling: Bradish was shut down from throwing at the start of Spring Training due to a UCL sprain and will almost certainly open the season on the IL at this point. Bradish has been throwing on flat ground in recent days, and the team has expressed positivity about his progress, but we're a long way from being out of the woods here. 

Buy the dip? I dropped Bradish quite a bit in my rankings as a result of the injury, but I still had him higher than 280, so I'm fine taking the discount. Even if there's a realistic chance he gives you basically nothing this season. One thing to keep in mind about the price: NFBC leagues do not have IL spots, so it's harder to justify drafting a guy who is already hurt. 

Ryan Pressly, RP, Astros -- Feb ADP: 327.64 (-142.67)

Why he's falling: Josh Hader signed with the Astros in late January. I assume this is just Pressly's price settling. 

Buy the dip? Pressly can still be useful as a non-closer, but even in that Tout Wars Saves-plus-Holds draft, he was outside of the top 250. He can be pretty much ignored in most 12-team leagues where holds don't count. 

John Means, SP, Orioles -- Feb ADP: 354.16 (-75.89)

Why he's falling: Along with Bradish's injury, we learned that Means was likely to begin the season on the IL as well, though it's not clear he's actually hurt right now. It sounds like this might be more of a Shane Baz/Walker Buehler situation, where the team is having his start delayed so they can manage his innings after he threw just 45 last season. 

Buy the dip? I'm actually pretty excited to see what a healthy Means can do, because we haven't seen him pitch in the much more generous dimensions at Camden Yards – they pushed the fences back in 2022, and he's made just six starts since. He's a fine final-round dart throw, especially if you have an IL spot to play with. 

Walker Buehler, SP, Dodgers -- Feb ADP: 195.13 (-72.37)

Why he's falling: The Dodgers actually mentioned that Buehler would likely start the season on the IL back in December, but somehow in an era of daily, 24-hour meltdowns over every 0.5-mph drop in velocity, it went almost entirely unnoticed until the end of January. But yeah, Buehler is likely to get a delayed start to the season after appearing in one game in his return from Tommy John surgery last season. 

Buy the dip? Buehler is "still working through some things in his delivery," according to Dave Roberts, but we don't have any reason to think he's suffered a setback here. I'm not overly optimistic about his chances, but a pick around 200th overall seems like an easy call. 

Matt Brash, SP, Mariners -- Feb ADP: 342.84 (-58.55)

Why he's falling: Brash was shut down from throwing recently, but the team hasn't given any details on what caused it. Brash said, "It just didn't feel great," but he also downplayed it by saying he's been through similar situations in the past. Brash was in the mix to set up for Andres Munoz before the injury, but now it looks like he might be delayed for Opening Day. 

Buy the dip? Armed with one of the wickedest sliders in the game, Brash struck out 107 batters in a league-high 78 appearances last season. He could be a high-end closer if he gets the opportunity, but I think he's probably not worth drafting in nearly all 12-team leagues right now. 

Jonathan India, 2B, Reds -- Feb ADP: 276.89 (-46.91)

Why he's falling: India was supposed to work out in the outfield this offseason in a bid to increase his playing time, but he apparently wasn't able to do much at all as he continues to deal with lingering plantar fasciitis issues. 

Buy the dip? India's stuck in a crowded Reds lineup, and he's still dealing with an injury that plagued him last season. These are ominous portents for a guy, and while he has 20-20 potential if healthy and playing everyday, it just doesn't seem like India is going to get that opportunity at this point. He's a bench piece for me. 

Zach Neto, SS, Angels -- Feb ADP: 335.58 (-46.9)

Why he's falling: There hasn't been a ton to cause Neto's dip here, but there was one news item last week about Neto asking to hit ninth that could explain it. It's a weird fit for a player who has shown a knack for getting on base by hook or crook – including 26 HBP in just 132 career games since being drafted – but if he's truly slated to hit ninth, that would definitely mute any potential sleeper appeal.

Buy the dip? Neto has some skills – he could probably hit 15-20 homers and steal 15 bases in a full season, and I think he's probably better than the .225 average from last season. However, the Angels had 142 fewer plate appearances from their No. 1 spot to their No. 9 spot last year, and hitting ninth in what should be a bad lineup isn't appealing at all. I get it. 

Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays -- Feb ADP: 303.75 (-40.31)

Why he's falling: Nothing? Genuinely, I can't find anything that would have caused Jansen's price to fall. 

Buy the dip? His price is cheap enough that it's fine to draft him here, because Jansen is a viable No. 2 catcher when healthy – he has 32 homers over the past two seasons in just 158 games, even if he'll split with Alejandro Kirk still. 

Shane Baz, SP, Rays -- Feb ADP: 237.6 (-39.96)

Why he's falling: Like Buehler and Means, Baz is going to get a delayed start to the season. He told reporters recently he had to accept the "lesser of two evils," choosing to have his season delayed rather than trying to manage his innings mid-season. Baz didn't pitch last season coming off Tommy John surgery and has never thrown more than 92 in a season. 

Buy the dip? Baz threw those 92 innings back in 2021, so I'd be shocked if he threw much more than that this season. Which means there's a decent chance we might not see him until July. He'd have to fall this far before I took him. 

J.P. Crawford, SS, Mariners -- Feb ADP: 313.48 (-36.85)

Why he's falling: As with Jansen, I can't find any reasonable explanation for why Crawford's price is falling. He's healthy and talking about making sure he proves last season's breakout wasn't a fluke. 

Buy the dip? Crawford went to Jared DriveLine last offseason and it resulted in a career-high 19 homers, an AL-best 94 walks, and 94 runs in 145 games. He's not a particularly exciting option in a Roto league, but he's probably a fine starter – and a bit more than that in H2H points. As a CI, you can do worse if you don't need speed.