The Illinois State Redbirds look to pull an Arch Madness upset on Friday afternoon in St. Louis. Illinois State won an opening round matchup against Indiana State on Thursday, advancing to the quarterfinals of the 2022 Missouri Valley Tournament. Illinois State now faces the top-seeded Northern Iowa Panthers, with the Redbirds aiming to improve on a 13-19 record. Northern Iowa is 18-10 overall and 14-4 in conference play, including two wins over Illinois State this season.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Panthers as 7.5-point favorites for this 1 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 145.5 in the latest Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa odds. Before making any Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $1,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State, and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions for the MVC Tournament 2022. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa:
- Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa spread: Northern Iowa -7.5
- Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa over-under: 145.5 points
- Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa money line: Northern Iowa -340, Illinois State +270
- ISU: The Redbirds are 5-1 against the spread in the last six games
- NIU: The Panthers are 6-2-1 against the spread in the last nine games
Why Illinois State can cover
Illinois State is No. 3 in the Missouri Valley in offensive rebounding, grabbing more than 28 percent of missed shots. The Redbirds are also shooting more than 36 percent from 3-point range, and Illinois State has a path to success inside the arc against NIU. The Panthers fall outside the top 300 nationally in 2-point defense, yielding a 55.1 percent shooting clip, and Northern Iowa has one of the worst block rates in the country at 4.8 percent.
On defense, Illinois State is in the top three of the conference in 3-point defense, with elite metrics in block rate (12 percent) and steal rate (10 percent). Northern Iowa is efficient on the whole, but the Panthers struggle mightily to create second-chance opportunities, ranking outside the top 300 in the country in offensive rebound rate.
Why Northern Iowa can cover
Northern Iowa has a substantial rest advantage in the quarterfinal matchup, with its opponent facing a turnover of less than 18 hours between the final buzzer on Thursday and the ti-off on Friday. From there, the Panthers are excellent on offense, including top-tier metrics in various categories. Northern Iowa is No. 2 in the MVC in offensive efficiency, and the Panthers lead the conference in both free-throw creation and free-throw accuracy.
In fact, Northern Iowa is shooting 82.4 percent from the line in conference play and, for the full season, the Panthers rank in the top 10 nationally. Northern Iowa also takes care of the ball effectively, committing a turnover on only 15.4 percent of offensive possessions. The Panthers are very good in converting shot attempts into points, with the No. 2 mark in the conference in 2-point shooting (55.8 percent) and a strongly above-average mark in 3-point shooting (36.4 percent).
How to make Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 148 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks.
