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Aaron Rodgers is dominating the NFL news cycle without doing much of anything, which is both a testament to the slower veteran movement before April's draft and the staying power of his football celebrity. Does the DK Metcalf workout mean he's truly headed to the Pittsburgh Steelers? Do the Minnesota Vikings' repeated endorsements of J.J. McCarthy mean he really won't follow in Brett Favre's footsteps even further? Every day is a new opportunity to speculate on the future of the biggest name still available for 2025.
Lost in the shuffle of reports and rumors regarding Rodgers' intentions is a meaningful dialogue about what the former Green Bay Packers and New York Jets quarterback is even worth. He's a complicated figure in more ways than one, and that includes his on-field trajectory. At 41, he still possesses a lively arm, as evidenced late in the 2024 season. He's a future Hall of Famer, no questions asked. And yet there's a reason it's April and he's still unsigned, perhaps contemplating how well his aging legs will hold up in a new home.
What, exactly, might Rodgers command if/when he finally puts pen to paper to play a 21st season?
Let's start with the obvious part: contract length. It's hard to envision Rodgers netting anything more than a two-year deal, given that he's admittedly year-to-year in the twilight of his career. A one-year contract is most likely, but it's possible a two-year pact would enable the acquiring team to better spread out his money, either via a "dummy" second season or a player/team option.
As for the compensation, Rodgers is a safe bet to exceed the earnings of fellow free agent veterans like Russell Wilson ($10.5 million) and Daniel Jones ($14 million). Why? Those guys are in very different positions; Wilson is just one of what might end up being three quarterback lottery tickets in New York, and Jones is summer competition for Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis. Rodgers, meanwhile, is in the unique position of not drawing abundant interest but also holding clear leverage over his remaining suitors (i.e. the Steelers); he's all but guaranteed to be the unchallenged No. 1 wherever he signs, due to both reputation and the desperation of those seriously sniffing around his services.
Accordingly, Rodgers' financial floor is probably about $25 million per year, which is what Geno Smith makes on the extension he signed with the Seattle Seahawks in 2023. Smith is now working to redo that deal with the Las Vegas Raiders, but the $25 million annual average clocks in 15th among quarterback contracts. That's just ahead of the $20 million deal Justin Fields got with the New York Jets this offseason, and just below the price tags of Sam Darnold ($33.5 million) and Baker Mayfield ($33.3 million) in Seattle and Tampa Bay, respectively. Remember that Darnold and Mayfield are a decade younger than A-Rod.
If $25 million is the floor, then Rodgers' financial ceiling is probably about $35 million per year. Some have suggested the former MVP could draw at least $40 million, but that seems unlikely given Rodgers played for less ($37.5 million per year) with the New York Jets, and is now two years older -- and visibly more limited as a play-extender -- since agreeing to that deal. Remember Rodgers took a pay cut just to facilitate his move from the Packers to the Jets. Is he really going to jack up the price after enduring his New York slog? If he does, he might not have any suitors whatsoever.
So where does that leave us? Cut it down the middle and you've got a logical contract template for Rodgers: one year for approximately $30 million. That kind of money would make him roughly the 16th-highest-paid quarterback, assuming Geno Smith eventually gets the raise he's seeking in Las Vegas. It's not nothing for Rodgers, especially coming off an ugly two-year run with the Jets, but it's also not back-breaking for the acquiring team, functioning as a middle-of-the-pack rental.
Now we watch and wait to see whether Rodgers, the Steelers or another team actually follows through. Or if one party proves surprisingly amendable to the other just to ensure Rodgers is, in fact, on an NFL field in 2025.
