Texans surging in Prisco's Week 11 Power Rankings, plus Bills ax OC after stunning loss to Broncos

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Hello, all. And welcome to another week of NFL action! That's right; with Week 10 in the books, we're about to embark on the final eight weeks of the 2023 season. John Breech is taking the day to mentally prep for Thursday's big AFC North tilt, so you've got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest on this fine Tuesday.

This is the Pick Six newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)

We've got Prisco's Power Rankings, early Week 11 picks, drama in Buffalo and more:

Today's show: Week 11 early odds, predictions, betting advice

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns — Browns vs. Steelers USATSI

Emory Hunt and Alex "PropStarz" Selesnick joined Katie Mox on the latest "Pick Six NFL Podcast" to forecast the next round of NFL action. Some highlights from their discussion:

Mox is still in disbelief that the Steelers are 6-3, but Hunt believes they'll finally be shown up in Week 11 against the Browns, predicting a rout by Cleveland after Deshaun Watson "showed some of that Houston Texans toughness" on Sunday.
Selsesnick likes the "thunder and lightning" combo of Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell in the Ravens backfield, but he thinks Thursday's game against the Bengals "has shootout written all over it," picking the Over as a "very sharp play."
Hunt thinks the Panthers could be hindering Bryce Young with an overload of former quarterbacks on the staff -- "too many cooks in the kitchen" -- and need to let him have more control of the offense. Either way, he doesn't like Carolina's chances against the Cowboys: "Dallas will get after him. ... They can go into this ballgame and drum Carolina."

Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.

2. Prisco's Power Rankings: Surging Texans approach top 10

Pete Prisco isn't one to rush to conclusions. He's often preached patience, especially when it comes to crowning or condemning young quarterbacks. But even he's seen enough from Texans rookie C.J. Stroud to send Houston way up his Week 11 power rankings, shifting the AFC South club up six spots, all the way to No. 11 and past perceived title contenders like the Bills and Bengals. And he's not afraid to call Stroud the biggest reason for the move.

The kid is unflappable. That, coupled with an outstanding offensive system led by Bob Slowik and a defense that is getting better by the week, is why the Texans are up to 11th in my Power Rankings. With a soft schedule the next five games, they might be even higher. The only tough game in that stretch would appear to be a home game against the Jaguars on Nov. 26. ... The Texans are the surprise team of the league so far, but the best thing is the long-term viability as a true contender is real. The have the right coach, but more than that, they have the right quarterback.

Here's a look at Prisco's actual top 10 as we approach Week 11:

Eagles
Chiefs (+2)
Lions (+3)
Cowboys (+3)
49ers (+4)
Dolphins (+6)
Browns (+6)
Ravens (-6)
Seahawks (+2)
Jaguars (-7)

3. Bills drop stunner to Broncos, fire OC Ken Dorsey; more fallout

Week 10 came to a dramatic close, with Buffalo falling 24-22 to the underdog Broncos in prime time. It was the way that the Bills lost, however, that really made Monday night's decision a disappointment for Bills Mafia. Not only did Josh Allen endure another turnover spree, giving the ball away three times to boost his season turnover total to an NFL-worst 14, but the special teams unit trotted 12 men on the field on a last-minute Broncos field goal try, giving Denver a second chance to seal the victory.

Here's the latest on the Bills' deflating fall to 5-5 on the season:

McDermott calls finish vs. Broncos 'inexcusable': And he hints at big changes, which arrived a day later ...
Bills fire OC Ken Dorsey: Just one-and-a-half years into his job, Dorsey is booted for QBs coach Joe Brady
Stefon Diggs' brother urges him to 'get up outta there': The Bills wideout had just three catches Monday
Unpacking Buffalo's disastrous final drive: John Breech walks us through every step of the defeat

4. Breech's Week 11 picks: Bengals over Ravens, Eagles upset Chiefs

John Breech likes to get spicy with his predictions. His picks for Week 11 are no exception. Here's a sampling:

Bengals 23, Ravens 20: If the Bengals lose on Thursday, that's going to essentially kill any shot they have of winning AFC North, which is why I think we'll see them in desperation mode. I am mildly concerned at the fact that the Bengals have lost 13 straight road prime-time games, but no one has been better than Burrow at ending these ugly franchise losing streaks and I'll say he ends another one on Thursday. To bring this pick full circle, I'll go ahead and say the Ravens blow a fourth-quarter lead and the Bengals win on a field goal.
Browns 24, Steelers 17: Back in Week 2, the Steelers beat the Browns 26-22, but they got two defensive touchdowns and they still only won by four points. If they get two defensive touchdowns again, I think they win, but that's probably not going to happen. The Steelers have been outgained in every game they've played this season and I fully expect that streak to continue in Week 11.
Eagles 27, Chiefs 24: The Chiefs are coming off a bye and I have never picked against Andy Reid coming off a bye and I'm probably going to regret this immediately, but I like the Eagles in an upset (Reid is 21-3 in his regular-season career coming off a bye). If anyone can outsmart Reid coming off a bye, it's Nick Sirianni, who knows all of Reid's bye week secrets since he used to be on Reid's coaching staff in Kanas City.

5. Race for the No. 1 pick: Bears, Giants are early front-runners

Bears coach Matt Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles Getty Images

No team will admit they're done chasing the postseason just yet. But there are plenty of clubs who, at least internally, have both eyes trained on what lies beyond 2023. Accordingly, Jordan Dajani has rounded up the top candidates to secure the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Bears are currently on track for that "honor," but Dajani isn't ready to rule out the G-Men.

According to SportsLine's Stephen Oh, the Giants have a 22.7% chance to win the No. 1 overall pick, and a 61.2% to secure a top-three pick. The forecast assumes (Tyrod) Taylor will be back after the Giants' Week 13 bye, but (Tommy) DeVito starting for the remainder of the season would skyrocket New York's No. 1 pick chances to over 30%.