Saturday's NFL Wild Card Weekend doubleheader concludes with a huge NFC showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Rams -- teams with strong Super Bowl aspirations. The Rams are favored by 6.5 points, up 1.5 from the opening line. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 48.5, down a point after opening at 49.5.

Before you bet on a high-profile game like this with so much on the line, you'll want to hear what Mike Tierney has to say.

Tierney has been crushing the books for two years now, going an astonishing 50-25 on NFL Over-Under picks since the beginning of last season. He's developed a reputation as a specialist in NFL totals, and anybody who has been following his selections is way, way up.

Now, Tierney has analyzed every matchup, every trend, and every angle for Falcons-Rams and locked in his Over-Under pick.

Tierney knows these teams have MVP-caliber offensive threats. For the Falcons, it's last season's MVP, quarterback Matt Ryan. And for Los Angeles, running back Todd Gurley has emerged as a threat for this year's award after a breakout season that included over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns.

Ryan has elite receiver Julio Jones and a strong backfield duo of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman to rely on. Gurley, meanwhile, has been aided by a surprising offensive cast that includes second-year sensation Jared Goff at quarterback and emerging threats at receiver like Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.

Both offenses moved the ball consistently this year, finishing in the top 10 in total offense. L.A. topped the league in scoring offense, while Atlanta finished the regular season 15th.

But just because these teams have serious offensive firepower doesn't mean that they'll go over the 48.5-point total.

Defenses tighten up in the playoffs and play-callers have a tendency to be more conservative with their seasons on the line. Nerves often set in as well, and that could be an issue for an Atlanta team that had the second-most dropped passes in the league this season and stumbled in the Super Bowl last year.

Rams' defensive lineman Aaron Donald could be extra disruptive in this matchup. He'll line up across from reserve guard Ben Garland, who is filling in for the injured Andy Levitre. He'll have a chance make life miserable on Matt Ryan and Co.

The Rams are also expected to have banged up corner Troy Hill and linebacker Mark Barron back in the lineup, further boosting their defensive cause.

We can tell you he's leaning toward the Falcons to stay within the spread, but what about the total? He's identified an alarming stat that determines which side of the total this game will fall on, and he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

So which side of the total should you back in Rams-Falcons on Saturday? Visit SportsLine now to see what stat gives a huge clue for the total in this matchup, all from the expert who is 50-25 on NFL totals picks since the start of last season.