We've passed the halfway point for the group stage of the NBA's first-ever In-Season Tournament, and with only three nights of group play left, the tournament itself is starting to take shape. Four teams have officially been eliminated from contention, several others are already on the brink, and while nobody has clinched a berth in the knockout stage yet, a few teams are right on the precipice.
What were the highlights of night No. 4? There were plenty to choose from. James Harden earned his first victory as a Clipper in a 106-100 thriller over the Houston Rockets, in which his four-point play with six seconds remaining swung the game. The Celtics held off the Raptors despite a wide open game-tying 3-point attempt from Scottie Barnes, the Pelicans earned their biggest win of the season when they managed to stave off a Nuggets comeback, and Kevin Durant and Jordan Clarkson combined for 75 points in one of the highest-scoring games of the tournament.
We now have three nights of group play left, so what were our major takeaways from night No. 4:
Who's going to the knockout round?
Nobody has clinched a spot in the knockout round, but a couple of teams are getting very, very close. We'll start with the only undefeated team in the tournament: the Los Angeles Lakers. If they beat the Utah Jazz on Tuesday, they will win West Group A and advance. Even if they lose, they can still win the group through a three-way tie with the Jazz and Suns. Oh, and if they don't? Their plus-42 point-differential puts them in solid shape to potentially get a wild card spot.
Boston's second win only has the Celtics halfway through its group, but remember, they've already beaten arguably the two hardest teams in their group against Brooklyn and Toronto. The Celtics will be heavily favored over Orlando and Chicago, and thanks to that head-to-head win over Brooklyn, might only need one more win to advance out of East Group C.
Things get a bit messier after that, though. The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks, both 2-0 in East Group B, will face off on Nov. 28 with the winner in prime position to advance. The Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves are in a similar position in West Group C, though they will battle on Nov. 24. East Group A currently belongs to the Indiana Pacers, who need only beat the Hawks and Pistons to advance. However, the 2-1 76ers and 1-1 Cavaliers will face off on Nov. 21 with the winner being among the likelier East wildcard teams.
That leaves West Group B, where a fascinating situation is brewing. All four teams have won at least once and all four teams have lost at least once. Nov. 24 will tell us a lot more about what ultimately happens there, as the Nuggets will play the Rockets and the Pelicans will play the Clippers. A victor could emerge on Tuesday, but more likely, this thing will come down to the end.
Who's going home?
Only four teams have been fully eliminated through four nights of In-Season Tournament games: the 0-3 Spurs, Grizzlies, Wizards and Pistons. None of those eliminations are all that surprising. Their combined regular-season record is 9-39. Soon, though, we'll start to see some better teams get knocked out, and some are already on the precipice.
The Clippers came one James Harden four-point play away from getting eliminated on Friday. Instead they survive, for now, but as one of only two two-loss teams in their group, their only real hope would be for a five-way, 2-2 tie. The same logic applies to the Mavericks, who are also in their group. A five-way tie in West Group C, where the Kings and Timberwolves are both 2-0 and have yet to play each other, would be impossible. Therefore, the 1-2 Thunder are going to need to win their next game and really run up the score in the hopes that it lands them a wildcard berth. With a plus-27 point-differential already, they'd be well-positioned to do so if a 2-2 team manages to advance.
The East groups are a bit more open. The Pistons, Wizards, Hornets and Bulls are the only two-loss teams in the conference. Not coincidentally, though, because those are the teams with the four worst regular-season records in the East. Everybody else is in position to win their way forward.
Clippers figuring it out?
Harden's four-point play is going to get the bulk of the attention, but in the grand scheme of things, it was just a nice shot. He only took it because Kawhi Leonard couldn't get a clean look over Jabari Smith Jr. Harden being able to create a scoring opportunity late in the shot-clock obviously has a ton of value, but the bigger story played out over the entire game.
The Clippers benched Russell Westbrook in this game, starting Terence Mann in his place and giving the former MVP only 17 minutes. The Clippers lost his minutes by nine points. They lost PJ Tucker's by 24. But when Harden was on the floor? The Clippers were +21. Generally speaking, when the Clippers surrounded Harden with shooters, good things were happening. That was particularly evident down the stretch, when he was able to run properly spaced pick-and-rolls with Ivica Zubac, knowing that nobody could help off of Leonard, Mann, Paul George or Norman Powell. The two Zubac dunks in the final 2:02 of the fourth quarter were ultimately just as important as Harden's four-point play, and they were both generated by Houston's defense prioritizing Harden in the pick-and-roll.
This is how Harden teams are meant to play. Give him shooting and he can almost always get you a clean look. The Clippers did so on Friday and were rewarded with their first victory of the Harden era.