Remember when the Pittsburgh Pirates were still trying to get back to the postseason for the first time since 1992? It feels like such a long time ago now. The Pirates are have been one of baseball’s most successful teams these last four years, winning 358 total games. Only the Cardinals (373), Dodgers (369), and Nationals (360) have more wins since 2013.

These last few years have been undeniably great for Pittsburgh baseball, but this is the reality heading into the 2017 season: only one team saw their win total decline from 2015 to 2016 more than the Pirates. The Pirates went from 98 wins and a Wild Card Game appearance in 2015 to 78 wins and a baseball-less October in 2016. (The Twins went from 83-79 in 2015 to 59-103 in 2016.)

Under general manager Neal Huntington, who is now the fourth-longest tenured general manager in baseball, the Pirates have become one of the game’s most innovative and well-run teams. They’re a player development machine, and, thanks largely to manager Clint Hurdle, they push the envelope with things like baserunning and defensive shifts. All their success since 2013 is not an accident. Hardly.

Needless to say, Huntington & Co. hope their disappointing 2016 season was nothing more than a bump in the road. They don’t want an NLDS loss in 2013 and Wild Card Game losses (at home!) in 2014 and 2015 to be the high points of the Andrew McCutchen era. Let’s preview the Pirates upcoming season as they look to get back to the postseason.

The vitals

Is this the new normal for Andrew McCutchen?

From 2012-15, McCutchen was one of baseball’s brightest stars and most productive players. The 2013 NL MVP hit .313/.404/.523 (157 OPS+) with 100 home runs and 76 steals during that four-year span, and his 26.4 WAR was bested by only Mike Trout (37.3) and Clayton Kershaw (29.1). And he did stuff like this:

Seriously, how could you be a baseball fan and not love Cutch? He’s awesome.

Last year though, McCutchen went through the worst season of his career, hitting only .256/.336/.430 (103 OPS+) with 24 homers and six steals. Add in his continually slipping defense and he was sub-replacement level: negative-0.7 WAR. Yikes.

When is the last time a player went from stringing together four years of MVP-caliber performance to sub-replacement level at age 29 without being hurt? I still refuse to believe McCutchen was healthy in 2016, though neither he nor the Pirates have used health as an excuse for his poor season.

The question now going into 2017 is which McCutchen will the Pirates get: the 2012-15 version or the 2016 version? If they get the 2016 version again, there’s almost no way they can qualify for the postseason. The Pirates are built around getting high-end production from their outfield, and McCutchen is at the center of that (though not literally; more on that in a moment).

Also, keep in mind McCutchen was mentioned in more than a few trade rumors over the winter. Another poor season will crush his trade value, which is bad news for Pittsburgh.

The Pirates acknowledged McCutchen’s defense is a problem and moved him to right field full-time. Starling Marte takes over in center and Gregory Polanco slides over to left, which is more spacious than right field at PNC Park. They put McCutchen in the place where he can do the least amount of damage, essentially.

As for his bat, the good news is his production gradually increased after bottoming out in in early July. Check it out, via FanGraphs:

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 FanGraphs

Weighted runs created plus, or wRC+, is essentially OPS+ on steroids. It expresses a player’s total offensive production relative to the league average while adjusting for ballpark, handedness, the whole nine. A 100 wRC+ is league average. The bigger the number, the more above-average the player performance. The lower the number, the more below-average. Easy, right?  

McCutchen bottomed out at .238/.312/.401 (91 wRC+) on July 7 last year. From that point on, he hit .277/.364/.464 (124 wRC+) in his final 72 games of the season. That’s not quite on par with his 2012-15 output, but it’s certainly above-average and more in line with what the Pirates hope McCutchen gives them in 2017.

Make no mistake, this coming season is an important one for the Pirates and McCutchen. He can be a free agent following the 2018 season -- assuming the team exercises their no-brainer $14.75 million club option next offseason -- which means the Pirates will have to make a tough decision about their franchise player reasonably soon. Do they trade him for prospects? Keep him and take the draft pick after 2018? Sign him to an extension?

The fact McCutchen was very much available this past offseason indicates Huntington is prepared to trade his star player and move forward without him. That top outfield prospect Austin Meadows is knocking on the door surely makes that decision a little easier. Either way, a bounce back season from McCutchen benefits everyone. He’d put himself in better position heading into free agency in two years, his trade value would increase, and the Pirates would win more games.

Leaning on Ray Searage a little too much?

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The Pirates need James Taillon to be one of their top starters in 2017. USATSI

In recent years Searage, Pittsburgh’s pitching coach, has worked wonders with several reclamation-project pitchers. He helped talented yet erratic hurlers like A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, and Ivan Nova find success after years of inconsistent (at best) performance. Searage has been a huge part of the team’s success.

Now the Pirates seem to be leaning on Searage a little too much when building their pitching staff. Here is the club’s rotation depth chart based on 2017 ZiPS projected WAR:

  1. Gerrit Cole (3.1 WAR)
  2. Tyler Glasnow (2.1 WAR)
  3. Jameson Taillon (1.8 WAR)
  4. Ivan Nova (1.5 WAR)
  5. Steven Brault (1.4 WAR)
  6. Chad Kuhl (0.8 WAR)
  7. Drew Hutchison (0.8 WAR)
  8. Trevor Williams (0.4 WAR)

There is some big upside there. Cole has pitched at an ace-level before and both Glasnow and Taillon are recent top prospects. (Glasnow is still technically a prospect and rookie eligible.) Nova was also very good after coming over the trade deadline last year, thanks in part to Searage, who simplified his delivery a bit.

That said, there’s obvious risk in that rotation as well. Glasnow and Taillon have combined for 127 1/3 career big-league innings (104 by Taillon) while others like Brault, Kuhl, Hutchison, and Williams are more back-end options than difference-makers. The Pirates are going to count on Glasnow and Taillon to have an immediate impact, and that’s always dicey when you’re dealing with young starters, even ones this talented.

Now, to be fair, it’s not like there were multiple top-of-the-rotation starters available this winter. The free-agent market was mostly barren, and the Red Sox blew everyone out of the water with their offer for Chris Sale. The Pirates have been connected to Jose Quintana in recent weeks, and I expect them to remain engaged with the White Sox.

Their need for another top starter is obvious. Right now, they’re banking on Searage to work his magic to contend.

More top young players on the way

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Austin Meadows is the next great Pirates outfielder. USATSI

In recent years the Pirates have graduated great young players like McCutchen, Cole, Marte, Polanco, and Taillon to the big leagues. They’re the backbone of the roster.

Pittsburgh still has several top prospects on the way as well. MLB.com recently ranked five Pirates farmhands among their top 100 prospects for the 2017 season. The list:

The Braves, who are in the middle of a massive rebuild, are the only other team with two prospects in the top 10 of MLB.com’s top-100 list.

It’s not just that the Pirates have five top-100 (top 55, really) prospects in their farm system, however. These players are close to the big leagues. Glasnow and Bell saw MLB time last year. Meadows finished last season in Triple-A, and if there’s an injury to one of the team’s starting outfielders (or a McCutchen trade), he figures to get the call. Newman reached Double-A last year and could reach the show this season. Only Keller, who spent 2016 at two levels of Class A ball, is unlikely to reach MLB in 2017 among Pittsburgh’s five top-100 prospects. 

The Pirates are not a high payroll team -- their $109.7 million payroll last season was a franchise record -- so they need a steady pipeline of top young talent like Glasnow, Meadows, and others to remain competitive. Several of these top prospects will contribute in 2017, and as we’ve seen with several clubs in recent years, they could push the team over the hump and back into the postseason.

Probable lineup

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Which Andrew McCutchen will show up in 2017? The 2012-15 version, or the 2016 version? USATSI

Pittsburgh’s lineup is still a little up in the air, and how things shake it will depend largely on McCutchen. He’s hit third most of his career, and it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll find himself lower in the lineup should he not rebound from his poor season. Hurdle gave him the benefit of the doubt last year because of his track record, but, if he hits like that again, how could the Pirates stick wth McCutchen as their No.3 hitter? Here is Hurdle’s possible lineup:

  1. 2B Josh Harrison
  2. 1B Josh Bell
  3. RF Andrew McCutchen
  4. CF Starling Marte
  5. LF Gregory Polanco
  6. 3B Jung Ho Kang
  7. C Francisco Cervelli
  8. SS Jordy Mercer
  9. Pitcher

Bench: C Chris Stewart, 1B John Jaso, IF David Freese, UTIL Alen Hanson, UTIL Adam Frazier

The Pirates lost a high-quality bench player to free agency in Sean Rodriguez over the winter. In addition to hitting .270/.349/.510 (126 OPS+) last year, Rodriguez also played every position other than pitcher and catcher. The team hopes either Hansen or Frazier can take over as their do-everything utility man.

Probable rotation

Hurdle is one of the few managers who has already laid out his regular season rotation plan this spring. Two spots are still up for grabs, but here’s how they’ll line up come the start of the season:

  1. Gerrit Cole
  2. Jameson Taillon
  3. TBD
  4. Ivan Nova
  5. TBD

Cole and Taillon will start the first two games of the season while Nova will start the fourth game, the home opener. Hurdle said so. The two TBD spots will come from the group listed earlier: Glasnow, Kuhl, Brault, Hutchison, and Williams. No team makes it through the season using only five starters these days, so chances are all of those guys will make starts for the Pirates in 2017.

Probable bullpen

The Pirates traded closer Mark Melancon at the deadline last year and opted against signing or trading for a big name closer to replace him. They instead went for a shrewd lower profile signing in Daniel Hudson. Here is Hurdle’s likely relief crew:

The bullpen is fairly well set. Rule 5 Draft pick Tyler Webb could sneak onto the roster if there’s an injury, but others like A.J. Schugel and Pat Light are destined for Triple-A. Keep an eye on righty Dovydas Neverauskas, who will soon become the first Lithuanian player in MLB history. The 24-year-old reached Triple-A last year and struck out 56 in 58 relief innings.

SportsLine projection: 81-81 (third place in NL Central)