Spring training is well underway, so what better time to start running through our annual team-by-team previews? We're running these in reverse order of 2015 finish, and now the New York Yankees are up.
Previous: ATL | BAL | BOS | CIN | CLE | CHW | COL | DET | LAA | MIA | MIL | MIN | OAK | PHI | SD | SEA | SF | TB | WAS
Isn't it funny how much differently the Yankees feel than every other team?
In the past seven seasons, the Yankees have been to the playoffs five times, the ALCS three times and won the World Series once. With pretty much any other franchise, that's a ridiculous level of success. With the Yankees, they feel pretty lukewarm. In fact, it feels much more fitting to frame it like so: The Yankees have only played in one playoff game in the past three seasons.
That game was last year's AL Wild Card, in which the Yankees were toppled by the upstart Astros. The Yankees won 87 games in the regular season, but that would have been their lowest win total since 1995 if not for 2013 (85 wins) and 2014 (84).
So what's fair here? Pointing out the Yankees haven't won fewer than 84 games since O.J. was on trial and Braveheart was in theaters or talking about how they haven't been in a playoff series since that embarrassing 2012 sweep in Detroit? Pick your poison. With the Yankees, we'll never be lacking for strong opinions.
The Lineup
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Brett Gardner, LF
3. Carlos Beltran, RF
4. Mark Teixeira, 1B
5. Alex Rodriguez, DH
6. Brian McCann, C
7. Chase Headley, 3B
8. Didi Gregorius, SS
9. Starlin Castro, 2B
Think that doesn't look great? Again, note the seeming built-in bias we have against the Yankees, because they were second in all of baseball in runs scored last season. They return essentially the same lineup but with Castro at second instead of mostly Stephen Drew in a group of six that hit .223/.279/.403 last season.
Castro is interesting, too. He's been unfairly maligned for much of his career. He led the NL in hits at age 21 and has put together four good seasons, one terrible season and last year's mish-mash. In 2015, he was well on his way to a second terrible year and Cubs manager Joe Maddon benched him in favor of moving Addison Russell to short from second. Once Castro starting playing again, it was at second and he seemed like a new player. He wasn't pressing anymore. He seemed happier. And he was better. He hit .353/.373/.588 with 12 doubles and six homers the rest of the way (143 plate appearances).
Overall, there's plenty of talent here but questions abound. Castro is one of them. A-Rod is 40 years old. Teixeira is 36 and hasn't stayed healty for a full season since 2011. Ellsbury was bad and banged up last year. Gardner was similar, but with a brutal second half. Beltran is 39 and has bad knees.
But they were third in the AL in slugging last season and there's an argument to be made that they'll hit better this year.
Switch-hitter Aaron Hicks adds valuable cushion in the outfield, just as Rob Refsnyder does in the infield. Dustin Ackley is a nice stick off the bench and Austin Romine is the backup catcher. Greg Bird's injury hurts the depth behind Teixeira and A-Rod, but maybe we see stud prospect catcher Gary Sanchez this summer?
The Rotation
1. Masahiro Tanaka, RHP
2. Luis Severino, RHP
3. CC Sabathia, LHP
4. Michael Pineda, RHP
5. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
ALT: Ivan Nova, RHP
Take out Severino from the above group, and here are the ERAs in order: 3.51, 4.73, 4.37, 4.20, 5.07. There's talent for sure -- and Severino is an excellent young player who had a 2.89 ERA as a rookie -- but it's just so variable. Can Tanaka's elbow hold together? Can Sabathia bounce back from a few bad seasons now that he's gone through rehab? Can Pineda avoid a lengthy DL stint? It's pretty funny, actually, that this is similar to the hitters. There is great talent here, but a lot of downside. Good arguments could be made that the rotation will be very good or that it will stink. As we know with most things, the truth probably lies in the middle. So we're looking at a mediocre group.
The Bullpen
Once Aroldis Chapman -- the closer -- is done serving his 30-game suspension, we're looking at one of the greatest three-man back-ends in bullpen history. Here are last season's numbers:
Chapman: 1.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 116 K, 66 1/3 IP
Andrew Miller: 2.04 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 100 K, 61 2/3 IP
Dellin Betances: 1.50 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 131 K, 84 IP
Holy hell.
They aren't alone, either. Chasen Shreve, a lefty, had a good season in 2015 and Branden Pinder wasn't bad. Expect Nova to be the long man while Nick Rumbelow adds depth.
Overall, expect this to be one of baseball's best bullpens. Let's not overreact to the impact of the Chapman trade, though, because the Yankees were 66-3 when leading after six and 73-2 when leading after seven last season. They were already awesome.
The Outlook
While some may disagree, I think the Yankees are one of the most fun teams to discuss, simply because of how fired up people on both sides of the fence get. This season is no exception. There's a lot of talent here -- enough to win the World Series -- but there are so many question marks. I can envision a Yankees hater going down the line and naming all the reasons why this team will flop in 2016 while an optimistic Yankees fan (they have those, right?) could name all the reasons why this team will be great.
Every question mark can't be answered in the positive. That's just not how it works. They won't all be answered in the negative, either. Expecting a similar record to last year is reasonable and high-80s in wins is good enough for the playoffs -- even if it's only one game and seems like a bad season thanks to our skewed opinion of the Yankees.
