2024 Fantasy Football: Dave Richard's 2.0 breakouts skew young, save for one "scary" receiver

The list of who to look for a big year from is here

I think there are two prevalent definitions of what a breakout candidate is in Fantasy. The first one is a player who could come from relative obscurity to have a much better-than-expected year. The second is a guy who could have a career-best year. I much prefer the second definition than the first.

So that's why you're going to get a list of players who can exceed the best numbers they've had up to this point in their careers. That's even if they've been in the league one or two years -- in those cases, it might be the best years they'll ever have.

A lot of the names are well-known and popular. These will mostly be early-round picks in your Fantasy draft. That shouldn't surprise anyone -- we're not jibber-jabbering about sleepers, after all. But at least you know to have the most confidence possible drafting them.

Players are listed in order by their CBS offseason PPR Average Draft Position as of June 27.

Stat to know: Of the 168 targets Wilson saw from everyone but Aaron Rodgers last year, 38 (roughly 22.6%) were deemed uncatchable. That's high but not totally out of hand. Also, of the 35 wideouts with at least 100 targets last year, Wilson was 23rd in Average Depth of Target with 10.16, a byproduct of catching passes from inferior quarterbacks.

What to expect: Wilson has all the makings of an elite NFL receiver who has already garnered huge target volume through his first two seasons. Marrying him with a really accurate veteran quarterback, even an old one, should accelerate his efficiency and pop his touchdown production (he's scored seven times through two years).

CBS offseason ADP: 15.9
I'd take him: as soon as 11th overall

Stat to know: Pacheco had 15-plus touches in 15 games including the postseason and notched at least 15 PPR points in 10 of them.

What to expect: Because the Chiefs' offseason moves were focused on improving the receiving corps, Pacheco stands to benefit greatly as the lead rusher in an offense that has some newfound speed on the outside. That should push opposing safeties back and create some advantages for the Chiefs in the run game. If Pacheco improves his vision and patience, he can really ratchet up his efficiency against lighter boxes from week to week and post a career-high in total yards while flirting with double-digit touchdowns. He can also take a step forward in his receiving to really make a jump. It helps that the depth behind him is very unappealing.

CBS offseason ADP: 24.4
I'd take him: as soon as 18th overall

Stat to know: London has averaged 6.9 targets per game in each of his first two seasons, seeing at least seven targets in 20 of 33 career games. Over the past four seasons, any wide receiver seeing at least seven targets from Kirk Cousins has notched 15 or more PPR points 71% of the time, an outrageous rate. Also, through two seasons London has had an uncatchable target rate of 22.5%. Cousins over his past four seasons has had an off-target rate of 8.2% with no single season worse than 8.7%.

What to expect: We've only seen London catch from Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke. Cousins is a step up in class, and at least one wide receiver has averaged at least 7.2 targets per game from Cousins in five of his past six seasons. London is easily the top wide receiver and pretty much the most attractive target in Atlanta, so a steady dose of volume that could be anywhere from 7.0 to 8.5 per game makes him a big-time candidate for a career year. That wouldn't take that much -- a 75-950-5 stat line would do the trick, but he's capable of so much more.

CBS offseason ADP: 29.2
I'd take him: as soon as 21st overall

Stat to know: From Week 12 through the end of the regular season, Olave averaged 15.2 PPR points per game despite a dip in targets (7.2 per game, down from 9.4 in his first 10 games) and ADOT (12.2, down from 13.8). The significance? These were games without Michael Thomas, games where Olave had to operate as the Saints' No. 1 receiver and not as solely a deep threat with almost half of his targets thrown 12-plus air yards downfield.

What to expect: New Orleans got a much-needed change at playcaller in Klint Kubiak. His experience in both Minnesota and San Francisco, not to mention his experience growing up with a famous football coach like Kyle Shanahan, could help unlock Olave into a much more dangerous wideout. There is no doubt that Olave will be the top target-getter for the Saints unless he misses playing time.

CBS offseason ADP: 31.1
I'd take him: as soon as 20th overall

Stat to know: In the seven games Nico Collins and Tank Dell each played at least 60% of snaps in, Stroud averaged an outrageous 27.8 Fantasy points per game. But in his final six of the regular and postseason without Dell, Stroud's Fantasy point average cratered to 14. None of this matters because Dell is healthy and ready for the season, Collins just got a contract extension that locks him in long-term, and the Texans added Stefon Diggs to really upgrade their receiving corps.

What to expect: Clearly, the Texans are building around Stroud. He averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game last year and could exceed that this year with an amped receiving corps and healthy offensive line. The hype is real for Stroud to finish as a top-five Fantasy quarterback.

CBS offseason ADP: 52.5
I'd take him: before 60th overall as QB5

Stat to know: Stefon Diggs saw at least 150 targets in each of his past four seasons with the Bills including 160 targets in 2023. Kincaid was second on the team with 91 targets in 16 games last season. Without a clear replacement for Diggs in the Bills lineup, it's easy to buy into Kincaid getting good target volume.

What to expect: Kincaid is a size/speed matchup option for the Bills, one of a few unique-bodied pass-catchers they have on the roster. He averaged 5.7 targets per game under Joe Brady's playcalling in 2023, though that includes a couple of games where he saw a boost in work with Dawson Knox sidelined. Any improvement in his game, or even just an improvement in targets, could lead to a stellar statistical season.

CBS offseason ADP: 53.3
I'd take him: before 55th overall as QB5

Stat to know: Richardson completed 59.5% of his throws over four games, an ugly number but still better than any completion rate he had in college. And on throws of 10 or fewer Air Yards, Richardson completed 69.1%, which again is poor by comparison to the rest of the league but a step in the right direction for him. Speaking of steps in the right direction, Richardson played a little more than 10 quarters of pro ball last season and had 25 rushes, 136 yards, and four touchdowns. Just for fun, if you were to extrapolate that out over a full 68-quarter season, that would put him on-pace for 154 carries, 840 yards, and, uh, 24 rushing touchdowns. The touchdown number is ludicrous but the others? Kind of expected!

What to expect: The Colts might try to rein in Richardson a little bit so that he doesn't hurt himself again. They also added Adonai Mitchell to their receiving corps, giving them another option for Richardson to throw to. But otherwise, I would expect things to stay as they were last season, which kicks down the door for Richardson to have some monster Fantasy weeks.

CBS offseason ADP: 57.7
I'd take him: before 70th overall as QB7

Stat to know: In the Raiders' last four games of 2023, White hit per-game averages of 23.3 touches, 4.7 yards per rush, and 15.2 PPR points per game. The Raiders went 3-1 with a pair of blowout wins. Since then the team moved on from veteran Josh Jacobs and added only Alexander Mattison and seventh-round pick Dylan Laube to its running back room. It suggests the coaches are cool with White as the lead back.

What to expect: White might never be a passing-downs option for the Raiders -- all of the 11 third-down snaps he played in those final four games were either third and short or QB kneel-downs. But it's unlikely Mattison or anyone else currently on the Las Vegas roster will significantly displace White otherwise. As long as he stays in that role and isn't displaced for any of a number of reasons, he has the makings of a weekly Fantasy starter. Problem is, guys with very small sample sizes from the year prior don't always work out the year after, so there is some risk.

CBS offseason ADP: 60.6
I'd take him: before 60th overall

Stat to know: Of the 252 targets McLaurin saw in 2022 and 2023, 52 of them (20.6%) were deemed uncatchable, a number that's low by comparison to many of his peers but still not great. New Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels had a 10.1% off-target rate in 2023 and 11.6% in 2022. Not only should McLaurin see cleaner throws, but he should continue to keep up the seven-plus target per game pace he's enjoyed each of the past four years.

What to expect: The Commanders have reportedly planned on being run-focused with the idea that their backs and defense can keep them in games, but it'll be tough to rein in a thrower as good as Daniels. Their passing volume will drop but they should be far more efficient with Daniels, who can throw as well on the run as he can from the pocket. Because McLaurin's career highs aren't too steep (87 catches, 1,191 yards, seven scores), there's a chance of a minor breakout in his sixth season.

CBS offseason ADP: 72.8
I'd take him: before 65th overall

Stat to know: In nine games with nine or more touches as a rookie, Spears averaged 10.5 PPR points per game with five targets per game. Any increase in work this year will send his average to at least a low-end RB2 value. In a different offensive system, while splitting with Derrick Henry, Spears played just five fewer snaps than Henry and dominated passing-down situations while averaging 4.5 yards per rush behind a bad O-line.

What to expect: Spears is expected to split touches with Tony Pollard, potentially on a drive-by-drive basis. The new Titans offense should be pass-friendlier than any iteration of the Titans offense over the past five years. That might sound bad to a physical rusher with stone hands but not to a juke master with great hands like Spears. The O-line should be coached up and any back with good zone-scheme traits (like Spears) should benefit. Spears could see close to 13 touches per game with upside for more at the first sign of Pollard struggling.

CBS offseason ADP: 105.2 (don't expect that to last)
I'd take him: around 85th overall