The emphasis in dynasty leagues tends to be on prospects, but it should actually be on winning, right? That's what makes a dynasty, after all. It's not a team that goes all-in for one big win after years of losing, but one that sustains success year after year after year.
More than prospects (which, technically speaking, aren't winning anyone anything), the key to sustaining success is a young core. Now, maybe that young core begins with prospects, but fashioning a young core from scratch is a higher-risk, lower-fulfillment approach. Sometimes it's made necessary by untenable circumstances, but ideally, prospects exist more to supplement and sustain an existing core.
What I'm saying is you shouldn't underestimate the value of proven-ness when putting together your dynasty league team. True, other factors like keeper cost may come into play, but all things being equal, a minor-leaguer isn't inherently more valuable than a major-leaguer, especially a young one who himself has upside.
But I acknowledge it can be tricky weighing present needs against future hopes and certainty against upside, and it's never one-size-fits-all. Still, I've attempted to simplify it, at least for the top 150, by considering these three factors:
- Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2020
- Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
- Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his immediate and long-term value
Each factor is measured on a 1-to-5 score, with five being the best, and a player's ranking is primarily determined by adding the scores. Ties typically go to the younger player, but personal preference plays a role as well. The distinctions become less evident further down the list, so at some point subjectivity has to reign.
| Rank | Player | Age (on 7/1) | Present | Future | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ronald Acuna
ATL CF
| 22 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 2 |
Juan Soto
WAS LF
| 21 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 3 |
Cody Bellinger
LAD RF
| 24 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 4 |
Mike Trout
LAA CF
| 28 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 |
Christian Yelich
MIL RF
| 28 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 6 |
Mookie Betts
BOS RF
| 27 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 |
Alex Bregman
HOU 3B
| 26 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 8 |
Francisco Lindor
CLE SS
| 26 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 9 |
Fernando Tatis
SD SS
| 21 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 |
Yordan Alvarez
HOU DH
| 23 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 |
Gerrit Cole
NYY SP
| 29 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 |
Trea Turner
WAS SS
| 27 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 |
Trevor Story
COL SS
| 27 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 |
Walker Buehler
LAD SP
| 25 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 |
Rafael Devers
BOS 3B
| 23 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Jose Ramirez
CLE 3B
| 27 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 |
Nolan Arenado
COL 3B
| 29 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 |
Shane Bieber
CLE SP
| 25 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 19 |
Jack Flaherty
STL SP
| 24 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 20 |
Gleyber Torres
NYY SS
| 23 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 21 |
Jacob deGrom
NYM SP
| 32 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 22 |
Freddie Freeman
ATL 1B
| 30 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 23 |
Anthony Rendon
LAA 3B
| 30 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 24 |
Vladimir Guerrero
TOR 3B
| 21 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 25 |
Pete Alonso
NYM 1B
| 25 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 26 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL 2B
| 23 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 27 |
Keston Hiura
MIL 2B
| 23 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 28 |
Bo Bichette
TOR SS
| 22 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 29 |
Xander Bogaerts
BOS SS
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 30 |
Ketel Marte
ARI CF
| 26 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 31 |
Mike Clevinger
CLE SP
| 29 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 32 |
Aaron Judge
NYY RF
| 28 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 33 |
Bryce Harper
PHI RF
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 34 |
Lucas Giolito
CHW SP
| 25 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 35 |
Luis Castillo
CIN SP
| 27 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 36 |
Aaron Nola
PHI SP
| 27 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 37 |
Austin Meadows
TB RF
| 25 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 38 |
Chris Paddack
SD SP
| 24 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 39 |
Blake Snell
TB SP
| 27 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 40 |
Wander Franco
TB SS
| 19 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 41 |
Carlos Correa
HOU SS
| 25 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 42 |
Eloy Jimenez
CHW LF
| 23 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 43 |
Luis Robert
CHW CF
| 22 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 44 |
Jose Altuve
HOU 2B
| 30 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 45 |
Stephen Strasburg
WAS SP
| 31 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 46 |
George Springer
HOU CF
| 30 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 47 |
Patrick Corbin
WAS SP
| 30 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 48 |
Kris Bryant
CHC 3B
| 28 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 49 |
Joey Gallo
TEX CF
| 26 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 50 |
Tyler Glasnow
TB SP
| 26 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 51 |
J.T. Realmuto
PHI C
| 29 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 52 |
Gary Sanchez
NYY C
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 53 |
Anthony Rizzo
CHC 1B
| 30 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 54 |
Josh Bell
PIT 1B
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 55 |
Javier Baez
CHC SS
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 56 |
Matt Olson
OAK 1B
| 26 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 57 |
Manny Machado
SD 3B
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 58 |
Yoan Moncada
CHW 3B
| 24 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 59 |
Jesus Luzardo
OAK RP
| 22 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 60 |
Matt Chapman
OAK 3B
| 26 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 61 |
Mike Soroka
ATL SP
| 22 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 62 |
Jose Berrios
MIN SP
| 26 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 63 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAA DH
| 25 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 64 |
J.D. Martinez
BOS DH
| 32 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 65 |
Eugenio Suarez
CIN 3B
| 28 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 66 |
Willson Contreras
CHC C
| 28 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 67 |
MacKenzie Gore
SD SP
| 21 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 68 |
Corey Seager
LAD SS
| 26 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 69 |
Gavin Lux
LAD 2B
| 22 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 70 |
Jo Adell
LAA CF
| 21 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 71 |
Victor Robles
WAS CF
| 23 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 72 |
Zac Gallen
ARI SP
| 24 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 73 |
Kyle Tucker
HOU LF
| 23 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 74 |
Justin Verlander
HOU SP
| 37 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 75 |
Max Scherzer
WAS SP
| 35 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 76 |
Jorge Soler
KC DH
| 28 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 77 |
Nicholas Castellanos
CHC RF
| 28 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 78 |
Julio Urias
LAD RP
| 23 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 79 |
Brandon Woodruff
MIL SP
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 80 |
Frankie Montas
OAK SP
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 81 |
Charlie Blackmon
COL RF
| 33 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 82 |
Max Muncy
LAD 2B
| 29 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 83 |
Jeff McNeil
NYM 2B
| 28 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 84 |
Josh Hader
MIL RP
| 26 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 85 |
Clayton Kershaw
LAD SP
| 32 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 86 |
Max Kepler
MIN RF
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 87 |
Eddie Rosario
MIN LF
| 28 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 88 |
Rhys Hoskins
PHI 1B
| 27 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 89 |
Adalberto Mondesi
KC SS
| 24 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 90 |
Marcus Semien
OAK SS
| 29 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 91 |
DJ LeMahieu
NYY 2B
| 31 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 92 |
Roberto Osuna
HOU RP
| 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 93 |
Dylan Carlson
STL RF
| 21 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 94 |
Jarred Kelenic
SEA CF
| 20 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 95 |
Nate Pearson
TOR P
| 23 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 96 |
Luis Severino
NYY SP
| 26 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 97 |
Trevor Bauer
CIN SP
| 29 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 98 |
Sonny Gray
CIN SP
| 30 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 99 |
James Paxton
NYY SP
| 31 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 100 |
Starling Marte
PIT CF
| 31 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 101 |
Cavan Biggio
TOR 2B
| 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 102 |
Miguel Sano
MIN 3B
| 27 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| 103 |
Max Fried
ATL SP
| 26 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 104 |
Lance McCullers
HOU SP
| 26 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 105 |
Casey Mize
DET SP
| 23 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 106 |
Andrew Vaughn
CHW 1B
| 22 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 107 |
Michael Conforto
NYM RF
| 27 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 108 |
David Dahl
COL CF
| 26 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 109 |
Willie Calhoun
TEX LF
| 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 110 |
Jorge Polanco
MIN SS
| 26 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 111 |
Alec Bohm
PHI 3B
| 23 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 112 |
Adley Rutschman
BAL C
| 22 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 113 |
Michael Kopech
CHW SP
| 24 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 114 |
Zack Greinke
HOU SP
| 36 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 115 |
Charlie Morton
TB SP
| 36 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 116 |
Yu Darvish
CHC SP
| 33 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 117 |
Tim Anderson
CHW SS
| 27 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 118 |
Carter Kieboom
WAS SS
| 22 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 119 |
Julio Rodriguez
SEA RF
| 19 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 120 |
Whit Merrifield
KC 2B
| 31 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 121 |
Mike Moustakas
CIN 3B
| 31 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 122 |
Mitch Garver
MIN C
| 29 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 123 |
Ramon Laureano
OAK CF
| 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 124 |
Andrew Benintendi
BOS LF
| 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 125 |
Zack Wheeler
PHI SP
| 30 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 126 |
Matthew Boyd
DET SP
| 29 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 127 |
Marcell Ozuna
STL LF
| 29 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 128 |
Giancarlo Stanton
NYY LF
| 30 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 129 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
BOS SP
| 27 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 130 |
Carlos Martinez
STL RP
| 28 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 131 |
Michael Brantley
HOU LF
| 33 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 132 |
Kyle Hendricks
CHC SP
| 30 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 133 |
J.D. Davis
NYM LF
| 27 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 134 |
Franmil Reyes
CLE RF
| 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 135 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT LF
| 25 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 136 |
Lourdes Gurriel
TOR LF
| 26 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 137 |
Nick Senzel
CIN CF
| 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 138 |
Alex Verdugo
BOS CF
| 24 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 139 |
Will Smith
LAD C
| 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 140 |
Yasmani Grandal
CHW C
| 31 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 141 |
Noah Syndergaard
NYM SP
| 27 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 142 |
Chris Sale
BOS SP
| 31 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 143 |
Alex Kirilloff
MIN RF
| 22 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 144 |
Forrest Whitley
HOU SP
| 22 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 145 |
Brendan Rodgers
COL 2B
| 23 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 146 |
Joey Bart
SF C
| 23 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 147 |
Brendan McKay
TB SP
| 24 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 148 |
A.J. Puk
OAK RP
| 25 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 149 |
Mitch Keller
PIT SP
| 24 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 150 |
Dustin May
LAD RP
| 22 | 2 | 4 | 2 |