In recent years, I've tended to emphasize downside risk with my bust picks for the upcoming season, highlighting players who I think have true bottom-out potential.
But there's also a place to discuss ADP inefficiencies, and well, this is it. Quite simply, these players are being drafted earlier than I think they should be.
Naturally, there's some crossover between my bust picks and my overrated picks. So as not to rehash the same material, I'll just rattle off the players I featured in Busts 2.0, and you can read more about them there.
Now, before we get into the new names, I want to stress that these players are all plenty capable, and there's certainly a point when I would draft each and every one. It's just that it's later than the consensus would.
Note that ADP values come from FantasyPros, which brings together data from several different sites. Its default format is standard 5x5 Rotisserie, so I've provided my own Rotisserie rankings as a comparison.
12 overrated players
Bo Bichette's stolen bases have gone from 25 to 13 to five over the past three years, and his declining sprint speed makes me skeptical he's going to reverse the trend. His spray angle works against his power output as well. The batting average should hold steady, but what I'm seeing is Xander Bogaerts production at a 60-pick premium.
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If I'm shelling out for an ace, I need the sort of massive strikeout total only available to aces, and while some would suggest George Kirby has untapped potential in that area, seeing is believing at this price range. You might argue his pristine control makes for a big enough WHIP advantage to counteract the strikeout deficit, but given how many hits he allows, it wouldn't take much to return him to the 1.21 WHIP he had as a rookie.
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My ranking may not be far off from ADP, but I never have cause to draft Randy Arozarena. Getting a combined 45 homers and steals from a player just isn't as special as it once was, and it's not like he's making a meaningful contribution in batting average. I'm not so sure I wouldn't prefer his teammate, Josh Lowe, and he's going 35 picks later on average.
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As with George Kirby, I can't count on Max Fried delivering the strikeout total I need to fork over what it would take to get him. His career high is only 173. I do think he's one of the safer bets for ERA and should win a respectable number of games with the Braves offense backing him, but particularly when you consider he's only once thrown even 170 innings in the season, I just think there's more upside to be found later.
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Volume is the biggest selling point for Logan Gilbert, probably. He's good for only about a strikeout per inning and is too homer-prone to be a real asset in ERA. You could get Merrill Kelly 70 picks later.
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My biggest issue with drafting Gleyber Torres around Pick 80 is that Ketel Marte, an even better, higher-upside version of the same thing, is generally available 20 picks later. Plus, I find that second base is often best used to feed the stolen base need with picks like Bryson Stott, Andres Gimenez and Zack Gelof in the 105-140 range.
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I can understand an appeal to upside, which perhaps Anthony Volpe comes closer to meeting in his sophomore season, but what about the upside of Jackson Holliday and Trevor Story? You could argue theirs is even higher and more likely to be reached, yet they go 50-75 picks later, on average.
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Riley Greene has always earned high marks for his hit tool, and his ability to hit the ball on a line should make for respectable batting average outcomes. But in terms of overall Fantasy output, I'm seeing launch angle issues, spray angle issues and strikeout issues that would be bad enough before accounting for his power-stifling home park. If he's delivering a combined 30 homers and steals, does it justify passing up Vinnie Pasquantino or Jake Burger?
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What am I missing here? Masataka Yoshida might help some in batting average, but Steven Kwan and Jung-Hoo Lee figure to help even more and have ADPs of 194.6 and 238.8, respectively. They'll also contribute more in stolen bases and should fare better in the counting stats while batting leadoff for their respective clubs.
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There's upside here, no doubt, but Hunter Brown crashed pretty hard in the second half and may not have the swing-and-miss arsenal to back up his strikeout rate. In other words, he's not such an obvious bet to deliver on that upside that he needs to be drafted in an entirely different category than Nick Lodolo and Kyle Harrison, who tend to go 70 picks later.
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If we're to take Eduardo Rodriguez's 2023 numbers at face value, then of course we should draft him at his ADP, but why should we take them at face value? His 3.89 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 in the second half are more in line with his 4.03, 1.29 and 9.1 career marks, and while those are still usable numbers, I'd rather shoot for the upside of a Nick Pivetta or Cristopher Sanchez.
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Maybe it's not worth quibbling about any player drafted in the 230 range, but if upside is your goal late in drafts -- and it should be outside of the deepest of leagues -- then I just don't see it with Brayan Bello. He's not much of a bat-misser and gives up a surprising number of home runs for a ground-ball specialist. There's ERA and WHIP risk, only without the reward of a big strikeout total. Maybe he could turn into another Marcus Stroman, but is that worth getting excited about?
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