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There were 41,207 strikeouts in baseball last year. That's an increase of more than 1,000 from 2017, 2,200 from 2016 and 10,000 from as recently as 2005. In other words, it shouldn't be hard to find strikeouts. But, as you might guess, it's not quite that simple.
There were only 18 pitchers with 200 strikeouts last year. That's only two more than 2017 and the same number as 2015. What's even more alarming is the drop-off right after that group.
Sure, there are 10 pitchers with between 180 and 200 Ks. Half of them had an ERA of 4.15 or higher. Half of them won single-digit games. Only two of them would be considered true four-category contributors.
It's not so much that you can't find strikeouts because they're everywhere. It's just that the very best pitchers are also the pitchers most likely to K 200-plus batters. If you miss out on those guys, you're can really hurt your ratios with a roster full of lesser starters or you can count on relievers and punt wins to a certain extent.
There were eight relievers who had at least 100 Ks in 2018, and another 10 who had at least 90. Josh Hader was the clear class of this group with 143 Ks, 12 saves, six wins and elite ratios. It's unlikely he can be that good again, but if he is he's worth a pick in the single-digit rounds. Dellin Betances, Adam Ottavino and Ryan Pressly were the other non-closers to top 100 Ks.
My preferred strategy for strikeouts involves getting two of the top 20 starters and two of the top 15 closers. If you can do that you shouldn't have many concerns no matter how you fill out the rest of your roster.
2018 Leaders
- Max Scherzer - 300
- Justin Verlander - 290
- Gerrit Cole - 276
- Jacob deGrom - 269
- Patrick Corbin - 246
- Carlos Carrasco - 231
- German Marquez - 230
- Aaron Nola - 224
- Corey Kluber - 222
- Blake Snell, Trevor Bauer - 221
What you need to win
Below you'll find the average strikeouts by place for the category in 2018. These numbers are for a standard mixed, 12-team league. In an eight- or 10-team league, these numbers would be higher. In a 15-team league you could aim lower.
| Place | Ks |
| 1st | 1,520 |
| 3rd | 1,426 |
| 5th | 1,364 |
| 7th | 1,303 |
| 9th | 1,237 |
| 11th | 1,138 |
Sleeper
Jon Gray's 2018 was pretty disastrous. He struggled mightily, got sent to the minors for a spell, and got left off the playoff roster. It was quite a fall for a guy we all considered to be the best pitcher on the Rockies, especially in light of the steps forward from German Marquez and Kyle Freeland. But he was also pretty unlucky.
Gray allowed an 18.1 percent HR/FB rate (career 14.0) and stranded just 67.9 percent of runners who reached base. That helps explain his 5.12 ERA in light of the fact that his 3.47 xFIP was the second best mark of his career and his 3.68 SIERA was the best.
He's spent the offseason working on his strength, developing a new diet, and even making a visit to Driveline Baseball. I expect a full bounceback. He still has great stuff, good control and is an above average groundball pitcher. He may still also be the best pitcher on the Rockies staff.
Breakout
Jack Flaherty struck out 223 batters in 2018, but it's just that five of those starts were in the minor leagues. I'm not sure anyone (including me) has him ranked high enough, at least based on his upside. If he makes any improvements in efficiency at all and has even average win luck, we may be looking at a top-12 starting pitcher. Even if you just give him five more big league starts at least year's pace looks an awful lot like an ace.
There could be a little bit of BABIP-related regression coming and Flaherty's control could improve, but at the very least he should comfortably join the 200-K club in 2019.
Bust
The short answer to why J.A. Happ is going to be a bust is pretty easy. He just posted a career-best 9.78 K/9 at age 35. He had never struck out more than a batter per inning in his career. I pretty much never believe a guy makes a skill-improvement in his mid-30s and it sticks.
But even if you don't agree with that, I'm not even sure Happ made a big enough skill improvement. His 10.4 percent swinging strike rate was the second-lowest for pitchers who struck out a batter per inning.
AL-Only Target
Pressly came out of nowhere last year to be one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. His full-season numbers are impressive enough, but what he did once he got to the Astros is just astonishing. In 23.1 innings, Pressly struck out 32 hitters and walked just three. He had a 0.77 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP. Now, he is 30 and this was unprecedented for him, but I'm far more likely to buy it because it's the Astros. They target specific guys and then help them reach levels they never have. Besides, Pressly will be available at the end of most AL-only drafts. There is no risk here and a huge reward if he's close to as good as he was last year.
NL-Only Target
Trevor Richards was one of the few bright spots for the Marlins in 2018 with 130 strikeouts in 126.1 innings in the majors. He battled some control problems, but that was never an issue in the minor leagues, so there's real reason to believe he could be even better in 2019. Richard threw another 39.1 innings in triple-A in 2018, so 180 innings with at least that many strikeouts and a sub-four ERA is a real possibility.
So which Fantasy Baseball sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued pitchers can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Scooter Gennett's huge breakout last season, and find out.
