Ever since the winter, the defending champion Las Vegas Aces and newly-formed superteam New York Liberty have been the heavy favorites to win the 2023 WNBA championship. Prior to the season, an Aces-Liberty Finals was actually the favorite over any other Finals matchup at some sportsbooks.
After establishing themselves as the top two teams in the league during the regular season, and sweeping their respective first-round playoff series, the Aces and Liberty remain heavy favorites to win it all. Ahead of the semifinals, which will begin on Sunday and featuring the Aces versus the Dallas Wings and the Liberty against the Connecticut Sun, here's a look at the championship odds for the four remaining teams.
Odds courtsey of Caesars Sportsbook
Las Vegas Aces: -165
The Aces won a WNBA-record 34 games during the regular season, had the best offensive, defensive and net ratings, boast homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs and looked completely dominant in the first round. It's no surprise, then, that they are the betting favorites to win the title and become the first team to repeat since the 2001 and 2002 Los Angeles Sparks.
Homecourt advantage is perhaps the biggest non-talent factor in the Aces' status as favorites. Any team that wants to defeat them in a series will have to win at least one game in Las Vegas, which has not been an easy task in recent years. They were 5-1 at home in the playoffs last season and 19-1 at home this summer during the regular season. Sixteen of those wins came by double digits, and they registered an absurd plus-21.9 net rating at Michelob Ultra Arena this season.
New York Liberty: +140
While the Liberty didn't end up catching the Aces for the No. 1 seed, they were the best team in the league during the second half of the season and finished with a franchise-record 32 wins. In addition, they recorded the third-best offensive rating of all-time, and set WNBA records for 3-pointers made per game (11.1) and total makes (444).
While you can only put so much stock in regular-season meetings, it's worth noting that they did go 3-1 against the Aces in the second half of the season (including their win in the Commissioner's Cup championship), and have shown the ability to handle the defending champs. So why are they not the favorites? The Aces' homecourt advantage is a major reason, and they also have a tougher semi-final matchup than the Aces. Thus, they are slight underdogs, but that may in turn make them the best value pick.
Connecticut Sun: +1500
Looking at the bracket, the Sun would have to beat the Liberty and likely the Aces in succession to win the first title in franchise history. That seems unlikely, even though they were terrific in the regular season, winning a franchise-record 27 games and earning the No. 3 seed thanks to Alyssa Thomas and an incredible defense.
But while the Sun were able to battle through adversity in the regular season, it becomes much more difficult to do some come playoff time. Without Jonquel Jones and Brionna Jones, and Tiffany Hayes' knee less than 100 percent, the Sun are simply at a big talent disadvantage against the top-two teams.
Dallas Wings: +4000
The young Wings have put together their best season in over a decade, winning 20 games for the first time since 2008 and winning a playoff series since 2009 -- both of which last happened when they still played in Detroit. New head coach Latricia Trammell has provided a new voice on the sidelines, Natasha Howard has brought some much-needed experience and Satou Sabally made a leap to stardom.
All that being said, they are not contenders, and are nearly off the board with how big their odds are. Their offensive ceiling gives them a chance to steal a game, but they were too inconsistent and too poor on defense in the regular season to envision a scenario where they beat the Aces and the Liberty (or Sun).
