NFL fans have an obsession with individual statistics that dates back decades, and it's only increased over time with the rising popularity of Fantasy football. That's why NFL player props have quickly become one of the most popular markets in USA sports betting. Week 1 will offer thousands of opportunities to bet on just about every conceivable outcome. Of course, quarterback prop markets are always among the most popular and C.J. Stroud props will surely see a lot of action after the Texans quarterback won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2023.
The Texans added Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to an offense that already includes Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and Stroud's over/under for total passing yards is 273.5 in the latest NFL prop bets. How should you handle that line and which Week 1 NFL props should you target? Before making your NFL prop picks and parlay lineups on sites like PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Sleeper, and DraftKings Pick 6, you need to see what SportsLine's proven computer simulation model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has locked in on the Week 1 NFL schedule and locked in its top NFL prop picks and predictions on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper, DraftKings Pick6, and Underdog Fantasy. You can only see them by heading to SportsLine.
Top NFL prop picks for Week 1
For the Sunday NFL slate, one of the model's top prop picks is Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson going over 82.5 receiving yards. Sam Darnold looks like a pretty clear step down from Kirk Cousins but Jefferson's production hasn't always been tied to overall target quality. He averaged 98.3 receiving yards per game in his career (the best in NFL history) and averaged a career-best 107.4 yards per game in 2023 despite battling a hamstring injury that cost him seven games.
Cousins missed the last nine games of the season with a torn Achilles and Jefferson made four starts late in the season with Cousins out. In those games, Jefferson caught 30 passes for 476 yards (119 yards per game) and two touchdowns. Minnesota just gave him a $140 million extension and spent the entire preseason making sure he was at peak health for the start of the regular season, which is a big reason why the model is predicting that he finishes with 101 receiving yards on average. See the model's other Week 1 NFL prop picks right here.
How to make picks on PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Sleeper and DraftKings Pick6
The model has also identified an under-the-radar player who could go off for massive numbers because of a dream matchup. This pick could be the difference between winning your contests or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is, and get the rest of the model's picks, here.
What are the top NFL Week 1 prop picks for PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Sleeper, and DraftKings Pick6? Visit SportsLine now to see the top NFL prop picks and predictions from the SportsLine simulation model that is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
