Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
It took 15 weeks, but it finally happened: Someone has clinched a division title! I was starting to think that none of the divisions were going to get clinched and that the NFL was going to have to pick names out of a hat to see who makes the playoffs, but thankfully, it doesn't look like that will have to happen.
The 49ers are the team that clinched, and they did it with a 21-13 win over the Seahawks last night. We'll be breaking down that game in today's newsletter, plus giving you some upsets and going over why the Jets have decided to turn back to Zach Wilson.
Oh, and don't forget: There are Saturday games this weekend. There will be three games tomorrow starting at 1 p.m. ET and all three will be airing on NFL Network. Here's a quick look at the schedule:
The Bills game should be extra interesting because the weather forecast in Buffalo is calling for a high of 31 degrees and nine inches of snow. Since 2017, the Dolphins are 0-7 in games where the kickoff temperature is under 40 degrees.
In unrelated news, your job this weekend is to get as many people you know to sign up for the newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Signing someone up makes a great holiday gift and that's mainly because it's free. Everyone loves free.
1. Today's show: 49ers look like a Super Bowl contender, even with a rookie QB
The 49ers became the first NFL team to clinch a division title with a 21-13 win over the Seahawks on Thursday night that wasn't nearly as close as the score made it sound. The 49ers dominated nearly this entire game on their way to picking up the win.
Ryan Wilson, Will Brinson and I got together after the game to record a 40-minute podcast about the 49ers' win and what ramifications it might have on the playoffs. Here are a few key points from the game that we went over:
- 49ers defense wrecked the Seahawks. One big reason why the 49ers can win with a rookie QB under center is because their defense is destroying everyone in San Francisco's path. The Seahawks offense could't get anything going due to the fact that Geno Smith was facing so much pressure all night. Smith ended up getting sacked three times and hit several other times. The 49ers also shut down Seattle's run game, holding the Seahawks to just 70 yards. The defense also came up with one of the biggest plays of the game just before halftime when Dre Greenlaw forced a Travis Homer fumble that was recovered by Charvarius Ward, who returned the ball to Seattle's six-yard line (you can see the play here). The 49ers would score two plays later with a touchdown that essentially iced the game. The 49ers have now held their opponents to 17 points or less in seven straight games, which is the team's longest streak since 1984, a year that ended with a Super Bowl win for San Francisco.
- Brock Purdy continues to shine. The 49ers offense hasn't missed a beat since losing Jimmy Garoppolo, and that's all thanks to Brock Purdy, who looked sharp for the third straight week. Purdy started the game by completing his first 11 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. Overall, Purdy threw for 217 yards and two touchdowns and got some serious offensive help from Christian McCaffrey (138 total yards, one touchdown) and George Kittle, who had arguably his best game of the season with four catches for 93 yards and two touchdowns. (One of those scores came on a 54-yard pass that you can see here.) Purdy has been nearly perfect for the 49ers so far, and if he continues to play at such a high level, he could do something no rookie QB has ever done in NFL history as a starter: Make it to the Super Bowl.
- Slumping Seahawks could miss the postseason. Heading into Week 10, the Seahawks were sitting at 6-3 and looked like a lock for the postseason. Now, they've lost four of their past five games, and there's a very real chance they'll miss the playoffs. One reason for the Seahawks struggles is that Geno Smith has come crashing back to earth. Smith struggled against the 49ers pressure on a night where Seattle simply couldn't get anything going on offense. The Seahawks punted on five of their seven first-half possessions, and things didn't get much better after that.
- 49ers clinch NFC West. For the second time in four years, the 49ers (10-4) are NFC West champions. The division title means the 49ers will get to host at least one playoff game in January. With one more win this season -- or a Tampa Bay loss Sunday -- the 49ers would clinch at least the No. 3 seed in the NFC. The 49ers likely won't catch the Eagles for the No. 1 seed, but there's a very real chance they could catch the Vikings at two. Minnesota (10-3) is just a half-game ahead of the 49ers, and if the Vikings lose to the Colts on Sunday, San Francisco would jump up to the two spot. This marks the fourth time since 2011 that the 49ers have won the NFC West, and each of the previous three seasons, they've made it to at least the NFC title game.
If you want to hear our entire recap of the game, be sure to click here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Today's show Part II: Best bets for Week 15
The best part about Friday -- besides the fact that it's Friday -- is that you get two episodes of the podcast in your feed. After recording the Thursday night postgame podcast with Wilson and myself, Brinson kicked us to the curb so that he could record his weekly picks show with Pete Prisco and R.J. White.
Those three guys spent nearly 60 minutes going over their best bets for every single game being played in Week 15, and we're going to cover three of those bets from each guy below.
Pete Prisco (2-1 last week in picks covered here, 25-16-1 on the season)
- Chargers (-3) to cover against the Titans
- Patriots (Pick'em) to beat Raiders
- Saints (-4) to cover against the Falcons
R.J. White (1-2 last week in picks covered here, 24-16-2 on the season)
- Ravens (+3) to cover against the Browns
- Steelers (+3) to cover against the Panthers
- Titans at Chargers OVER 47.5 points
Will Brinson (1-2 last week in picks covered here, 19-22-1 on the season)
- Jaguars (+4) to cover against the Cowboys
- Giants (+4.5) to cover against the Commanders
- Steelers- at Panthers UNDER 37.5 points
To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 15 -- and there are quite a few -- you can check out the episode on YouTube by clicking here.
3. Week 15 picks: Ravens, Raiders and Steelers headline big week of upsets
This is the final newsletter of the week, which means we will be cramming as many picks as humanly possible into this space.
With that in mind, we've got four more Week 15 picks coming your way, and those will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco, along with Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself.
Here's how things are going to work: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on.
- Pete Prisco -- Ravens (+3) 23-22 over Browns. From Prisco: "The Browns are done, so this is a pride game. Deshaun Watson hasn't been that good, which is a concern. The Ravens are playing consecutive road games, which is tough. They will win it behind their defense, but it's close." For the rest of Prisco's Week 15 picks, be sure to click here.
- Tyler Sullivan -- Raiders (+1) 24-21 over Patriots. From Sullivan: "It's tempting to pick the Patriots, but let's not forget that Josh McDaniels has intimate knowledge of Mac Jones and New England's offense. The Raiders are certainly capable of making self-destructive mistakes that could be their undoing, but New England's offense is too lost to trust." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 15 picks, be sure to click here.
- Jordan Dajani -- Commanders (-4.5) 28-23 over Giants. From Dajani: "Washington is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and will have had a bye week to prepare for this game. The Commanders are 6-1-1 over their past eight games after starting 1-4. They are allowing 16 points per game during that eight-game span, which ranks second in the NFL. This is a big game, and Taylor Heinicke craves these big moments. As for Daniel Jones, he's 0-9 in prime time." For the rest of Dajani's Week 15 best bets, be sure to click here.
- John Breech -- Steelers (+3) 22-19 over Panthers. The NFC South is a total trainwreck this year, so I've decided I'm just going to fully embrace that this week. I've got the Panthers, Falcons and Buccaneers all losing in Week 15, and if that happens, it means Carolina, New Orleans and Atlanta will all be within one game of the first-place Bucs heading into Week 16. For the rest of my Week 15 picks, be sure to click here.
4. Jets turning to Wilson at QB: The Zach attack is back
After spending the past three weeks on the bench, Zach Wilson will be getting another chance to serve as the Jets starting quarterback this weekend when New York plays host to the Lions.
Here's everything you need to know about the situation:
- Mike White is sidelined due to injury. Although Wilson is getting his job back, it's not because he's been outplaying Mike White in practice. White, who took several brutal hits in Week 14 against the Bills, is dealing with a rib injury right now and doctors haven't cleared him to play, which opened the door for Wilson to return to the starting QB spot.
- Wilson was benched following a Week 11 loss to the Patriots. Wilson went 5-2 as the Jets' starting QB, but their record wasn't necessarily because of him. During his seven-game stint, Wilson completed barely 55% of his passes and only averaged 182.7 passing yards per game. Wilson was finally benched after a 10-3 loss to the Patriots in Week 11 where he completed just 9 of 22 passes for 77 yards.
- Wilson had just been promoted this week. After losing his job in Week 11, the Jets didn't even make him the backup QB to White. Instead, that job went to Joe Flacco while Wilson was listed as inactive for the past three games. Earlier this week, Jets coach Robert Saleh promoted Wilson to the No. 2 QB and that promotion set the stage for him to be named starter today.
For more on Wilson's return to the starting job, be sure to click here.
5. Playoff scenarios: Four teams can clinch a playoff berth in Week 15
The 49ers became the first team in the NFL to clinch a division title this year, but they might not be the only team to pull that off in Week 15. There are a total of four teams that can clinch a playoff berth this weekend, including two that can clinch a division title.
Here are the four teams that can clinch a playoff berth and/or division title in Week 15 and what they need to do to clinch:
COWBOYS
- Can clinch playoff berth with: Cowboys win over Jaguars OR Commanders loss OR Lions loss/tie to Jets.
VIKINGS
- Can clinch division title with: Vikings win over Colts PLUS Lions loss to Jets.
BILLS
- Can clinch playoff berth with: Bills win over Dolphins.
- Can clinch division title with: Chiefs win over Texans OR Chargers loss to Titans
Besides these four teams, the Eagles and 49ers have already clinched a playoff berth, which means six of the NFL's 14 playoff spots could be taken by the end of Week 15. Remember, this just represents the easiest clinching/elimination scenario for each of these teams. For a look at every possible playoff-clinching scenario, be sure to click here.
6. Rapid-fire roundup: NFL shuts down rulebook loophole Raiders had been using
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Raiders special kickoff banned by NFL. For the past two weeks, the Raiders had been using a holder on kickoffs in order to gain an advantage -- the holder would hold the ball on the outside edge of the tee to give the ball more height -- but the NFL has put the kibosh on that. For more details on this unique story, be sure to click here.
- Tom Brady irked by accusation that he changes offensive game plan without consulting coaches. After the Buccaneers lost to the 49ers on Sunday, the San Francisco Chronicle wrote a story that included an interesting nugget: that Brady has a habit of making tweaks to the offensive game plan without running it by anyone on the coaching staff. Brady was asked about the accusation Thursday and didn't take too kindly to the question. You can check out his comments here.
- Steelers receiver wants Mason Rudolph to start. After watching Mitchell Trubisky throw three interceptions in Week 14, Diontae Johnson didn't hide his feelings about who should be the Steelers' starter Sunday against Carolina. If Kenny Pickett (concussion) isn't cleared to play, Johnson would prefer that the team rolls out Mason Rudolph as its starting QB.
- NFL will discuss making roughing the passer reviewable. After being hit with several controversial roughing the passer penalties this year, the NFL is trying to figure out a way to fix the problem. One option that the league will discuss in the offseason is the possibility of making the penalty reviewable. You can check out full details on the story by clicking here.
