Who says 13 is an unlucky number? Week 13 sure wasn't unlucky for me. It wasn't quite the triple-crown hit I wanted, but it was close.
I went 10-5 in my ATS expert picks, 11-3-1 straight up and 3-3 with my best bets as part of the Pick Six podcast. That improves my records to 92-95-8 ATS, 111-77-1 straight up and 44-30-3 with my best bets.
So all in all, it was a good week. Let's keep it going.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jets are playing consecutive road games, while the Bills are rested after playing last Thursday. Bad combination. The Bills also look like they are getting it rolling again on offense. The Jets defense is good, but didn't look as good last week. Buffalo wins it behind Josh Allen as Jets quarterback Mike White can't keep up.
Pick: Bills 29, Jets 13
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Kenny Picket is 3-1 in his last four starts for the Steelers as they make a little late-season push. The Ravens have had offensive issues with Lamar Jackson, and now he's out. That means it's Tyler Huntley time at quarterback. The Steelers defense is playing better, so that's not a good thing for the Ravens.
Pick: Steelers 24, Ravens 13
Cleveland Browns (+6) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Joe Burrow has never beaten the Browns, which will make this a challenge. But the Bengals are playing well. The Browns have Deshaun Watson back, but he was awful against the Texans. The Bengals and Burrow will keep it rolling. Bengals take it.
Pick: Bengals 28, Browns 23
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-17)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Cowboys are playing good football, while the Texans are not. Dallas has to be careful about a letdown here, but I don't think that will happen. Their defense will be the dominant part of this game. They will win big behind it. Dak Prescott also plays well.
Pick: Cowboys 33, Texans 10
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
This is actually a good game with both teams coming off impressive victories last week. The Vikings are a shoo-in to win the division, but the Lions are alive for a wild card spot. The Lions offense will present big problems for a Vikings defense that hasn't played that well. Lions win it behind Jared Goff.
Pick: Lions 31, Vikings 28
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
This is a big game for the Giants in the playoff race, a game sandwiched between two with Washington. They need this game more than the Eagles, but the Eagles are flying high on offense. It will be a big challenge for the Giants, but I think they hang around in this one.
Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 24
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans have dominated the Jaguars in their history, especially the last 10 years. Both teams are coming off terrible road losses and now the Jaguars are back out on the road. The Titans will do what they always do to the Jaguars, which is let Derrick Henry run wild. Titans take it.
Pick: Titans 30, Jaguars 21
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs are coming off a tough loss to the Bengals and they are playing a second straight road game. Big deal. The Denver offense is terrible. The Denver defense is good, but it won't slow Patrick Mahomes. Look for the Chiefs to get back on track, especially after losing last week.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 13
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Geno Smith is playing outstanding football for the Seahawks, who would be in the playoffs if they started now. The Panthers are coming off a bye, but they are playing for nothing. This is a long trip for a team with little motivation. The Seahawks will win it behind Smith.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Panthers 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Bucs had an amazing fourth-quarter comeback Monday night to beat the Saints, but the offense struggled for most of the game. That's never a good thing against the 49ers defense. The 49ers will start Brock Purdy at quarterback, but he will play well. The 49ers take it.
Pick: 49ers 26, Bucs 17
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (+3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)
This is Tua Tagovailoa against Justin Herbert in a battle of 2020 first-round draft picks. Tagovailoa didn't play well last week, and he's banged up a bit. The Chargers need the game more and should be able to move it against the Miami defense. Herbert gets the best of Tua as the down-field passing game finally explodes for the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers 33, Dolphins 28
New England Patriots (-1) at Arizona Cardinals
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)
The Cardinals are coming off a bye, while the Patriots are coming off a terrible showing last Thursday against the Bills. The offense was lifeless. That will change here. They will move the ball against the Arizona defense and limit Kyler Murray. The Patriots win it.
Pick: Patriots 24, Cardinals 21
