Getty's Justin Casterline

Hello and happy midweek, everyone. Thanksgiving is already almost a week behind us, but no worries, because the holiday spirit rolls on in Week 13, with a ton of intriguing matchups on the NFL schedule. John Breech is so stoked for Bengals-Chiefs, in fact, that he took the day off and assigned me, Cody Benjamin, to fill you in on the latest from around the league.

This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)

We've got Week 13 picks, an Aaron Rodgers update, new playoff projections and more:

  1. Today's show: Best bets for Week 13 matchups

Geno Smith Getty

Tyler Sullivan joined Will Brinson on Wednesday's "Pick Six NFL Podcast" to break down notable Week 13 matchups from a betting perspective, identifying the best and worst spreads to target. Some highlights:

  • Brinson thinks the Packers' 3- to 4-point edge against Chicago reflects the expectation that Aaron Rodgers will play Trevor Siemian or Nathan Peterman rather than Justin Fields, saying he'd be surprised if the latter suits up for the Bears.
  • Sully is confident in the Under (47) for Browns-Texans despite the offensive potential for Deshaun Watson's Cleveland debut. Brinson, meanwhile, thinks the 7-point spread is light, noting that Watson has had weeks to practice for this performance.
  • Brinson is all over the Seahawks as touchdown favorites against the rival Rams: "It means a ton for Seattle, it doesn't mean anything for the Rams. I wouldn't wanna lay 10, but I'm fine laying seven. It's in the Rams' best interest to sit everybody."

Catch the full episode (and subscribe for daily NFL talk) right here.

2. Prisco's Picks: Bills beat Patriots, Chiefs edge Bengals

Pete Prisco went 11-5 making picks in Week 12. Now, confidence restored, he's back with predictions for every single Week 13 contest. Here's a sampling:

  • Bills 28, Patriots 21: The Bills knocked the Pats out of the playoffs last year, so you know the Pats want to get back at them for that. But Josh Allen has played really well against the Pats in recent years, going 4-1 in the last five. That stays true.
  • 49ers 28, Dolphins 22: This is one of the best games of the week. The Miami offense against the 49ers defense will be a treat to watch. But can Miami's defense, which hasn't played that well, slow the 49ers? I don't think they do.
  • Chiefs 35, Bengals 34: This is a rematch of the AFC Championship Game from last January, a game won by the Bengals in Kansas City. The Bengals also beat the Chiefs at home last year. But this Chiefs team is the best in the league right now.

3. Aaron Rodgers plans to play vs. Bears despite rib injury

Aaron Rodgers USATSI

After falling to 4-8 with Sunday night's loss to the Eagles, the Packers have multiple reasons to consider starting Jordan Love for the remainder of 2022. But don't tell that to Rodgers, who got "good news" from his latest MRI and is set to suit up against the Bears in Week 13 despite battling thumb and rib injuries. Here's what the QB told "The Pat McAfee Show" this week:

"Well we're not eliminated. And I got good news with the scans yesterday, so I plan on playing this week. ... We've got a chance to run the last five and see where we stand after that. Listen, if we were 8-4, 4-8, 12-0, 0-12, I'd be wanting to suit up this week, and not just because it's Chicago. Because that's what you do. ... If you can go out there and compete, you go out and play."

4. Playoff projections: Commanders, Patriots miss wild card berths

Every week, SportsLine simulates every NFL game 10,000 times to forecast season results. And John Breech has been collecting data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh to project the entire playoff picture: who's in? Who's out? Who barely made the cut? Here's a look at the latest predictions for all 14 postseason spots going into Week 13:

AFC: 1. Chiefs, 2. Bills, 3. Ravens, 4. Titans, 5. Dolphins, 6. Jets, 7. Bengals
Just missed: Patriots (52.4%), Chargers (45.3%)

NFC: 1. Eagles, 2. Vikings, 3. 49ers, 4. Buccaneers, 5. Cowboys, 6. Seahawks, 7. Giants
Just missed: Commanders (55.8%), Falcons (7.7%)

5. QB Power Rankings: Garoppolo, Cousins rise into top 10

Jimmy Garoppolo USATSI

Every week, we rank all 32 starting quarterbacks based on current standing and immediate outlook. The MVPs for the NFL's two most explosive teams are clear front-runners entering Week 14, with Patrick Mahomes (No. 1) and Jalen Hurts (No. 2) topping the list. Here's a look at some of the biggest movers beneath them:

9. Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), +2
10. Kirk Cousins (Vikings), +2
11. Justin Herbert (Chargers), +2
14. Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), +3
22. Mac Jones (Patriots), +3

6. Rapid-fire roundup: 2023 mock, Odell sweepstakes, Dolphins flexed

Hungry for more headlines? Coming right up: