Predicting first-round draft surprises, plus insider's 27 locks in Round 1 and every team's top draft do-over

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Folks, it's about that time. We are now officially one day away from the start of the 2021 NFL Draft. After months and months of rumors, speculation and predictions, we'll soon get results. But we've still got this day -- this one last full day -- to soak it all in. John Breech is busy prepping himself for the Bengals' pick at No. 5, so you're stuck with me -- Cody Benjamin, the man with two first names -- as we traverse the latest from around the NFL.

This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL).

We've got first-round projections, trade-heavy mock drafts and insider prospect notes, plus much more:

Today's show: Bold predictions for the first round of the 2021 draft

Can you believe we're only a day away from real draft picks? Let's celebrate with the Pick Six NFL Podcast crew, which toasted to the forthcoming festivities Wednesday by running through a bunch of bold predictions for the first round. You can listen and subscribe to the podcast right here, in which Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson and John Breech share their most notable projections for Thursday night.

Brinson's big gamble? That the 49ers, at No. 3, will take Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. All the buzz has centered on Alabama's Mac Jones, and Brinson admitted that coach Kyle Shanahan's recent comments about ignoring outside opinions in the evaluation process might signal that Jones is the guy. But he still likes Fields' upside at the No. 3 spot and cautioned that just a few years ago, draft experts weren't aware of Baker Mayfield's chances of going No. 1 to the Browns until the morning of the first round.

Breech, meanwhile, predicted that Penei Sewell, the consensus top offensive lineman of the class and a widely projected top-five pick, will slide out of the top 10: "I think the Bengals are gonna go with Ja'Marr Chase. The Dolphins maybe take him at No. 6, but maybe they also wanna get someone who can catch passes ... (And) let's say five quarterbacks go in the top 10 ... All of a sudden, Penei's still there at 11."

2. Predicting biggest first-round surprises: Barely any trades in top 10

If there's one thing you can predict about the NFL Draft, it's that it'll be unpredictable. What might actually stun us on Thursday night, when things get underway, though? Ryan Wilson has forecast five potential Day One surprises:

No defensive player will be drafted in the top 10
Jamin Davis will be the first linebacker drafted
No trade-ups will happen until No. 9, at the earliest
Two running backs will go on Day One
Six QBs will be picked, including either Davis Mills or Kellen Mond

Wilson admits that his QB prediction is the least likely to come to fruition, with both Mills and Mond likely targets for teams early on Day Two. But his first few projections are especially intriguing: It's been four decades since a defender wasn't picked by No. 7 in the first round, and there's been a ton of buzz about possible trade-ups in the top 10, especially regarding QB-needy clubs. Wilson just doesn't see that many avenues for moves up if a QB like Jones or Fields slides, considering teams like the Lions (No. 7), Panthers (No. 8) and Broncos (No. 9) could just sit still and take those players.

3. Insider's notes: Identifying 27 locks to go on Day One of the draft

NCAA Football: Wisconsin at Minnesota — Rashod Bateman USATSI

Some view this year's draft class as especially unpredictable because scouts had significantly less film to review for prospects who either sat out or had seasons affected by the pandemic. That didn't stop CBS Sports NFL insider Jason La Canfora from surveying the landscape and identifying 27 locks to go on the first night of the draft. Most of the names on La Canfora's list will sound familiar, but consider these notable inclusions -- or omissions -- from his rundown of surefire Day One picks:

Minnesota's Rashod Bateman is one of four WRs, included as "the safest of the bunch" beyond the top-15 locks
Oklahoma State's Teven Jenkins is one of five offensive linemen included, a "plug-and-play right tackle"
Only three pass rushers crack the list: Kwity Paye, Jaelan Phillips and Azeez Ojulari
Not a single defensive lineman makes it, though Alabama's Christian Barmore gets a mention as a possibility
Virginia Tech's Caleb Farley, who's endured medical concerns, is among three CBs included

4. Mock drafts: Brinson's bold picks, plus what every team should do

This is the week we'll finally see how wrong all of our mocks draft have been. In the spirit of actual picks coming down the pike, however, draft analyst Josh Edwards decided to forecast the first two rounds according to what he thinks teams should do. Forget about each club's draft-day tendencies; this is how Edwards believes teams should be drafting come Thursday. Here's a sneak peek at his two-round mock with a look at the top 10:

Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence
Jets: QB Zach Wilson
49ers: QB Justin Fields
Falcons: QB Trey Lance
Bengals: OT Penei Sewell
Dolphins: TE Kyle Pitts
Patriots (via trade): QB Mac Jones
Panthers: WR Ja'Marr Chase
Broncos: OT Rashawn Slater
Cowboys: CB Patrick Surtain II

As if you needed more mocks before Thursday night, Will Brinson also dropped his one and only first-round forecast of the season. Among the most notable picks: Fields to the 49ers at No. 3, Jaylen Waddle to the Dolphins at No. 6, Sewell to the Chargers on a trade-up to No. 7, and Lance to the Eagles (!) at No. 12. If you're going to give any mock your time, please make it this one, because Brinson has loaded each selection with analysis and honest conviction.

5. Every team's top draft do-over: 49ers passing on Tom Brady headlines list

Resident NFL historian Bryan DeArdo got creative ahead of the 2021 draft by searching decades of draft classes with one goal in mind: Weeding out each team's most desired draft do-over. For every home run pick, after all, there are probably three or four times as many whiffs. None bigger, DeArdo poses, than the 49ers passing on Tom Brady back in 2000:

2000 NFL Draft, No. 65 overall: QB Giovanni Carmazzi

The 49ers drafted not one but two quarterbacks in the 2000 draft. Along with Carmazzi (who never played in an NFL regular-season game), the 49ers spent a seventh-round pick on Tim Rattay, who won just a quarter of his 12 starts in San Francisco. The 49ers did not, however, select Brady, the seventh quarterback and 199th player selected. A California native who grew up idolizing Joe Montana, Brady likely would have added to the 49ers' Super Bowl collection while following in Joe Cool's footsteps.

Here's a glimpse at some of DeArdo's other desired do-overs: