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USATSI

The Green Bay Packers host the Tennessee Titans for the Week 11 edition of Thursday Night Football. 

Green Bay is coming off a surprising upset win over the Dallas Cowboys, and is looking to secure another victory to catapult itself back into the NFC playoff race. The Titans re-solidified their hold on the AFC South by pulling off a close victory against the Denver Broncos a week ago, and can put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division by going on the road and pulling off an upset over their own on Thursday night. 

Will the Packers be able to notch a second consecutive win, or will the Titans spoil their plans? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's how you can watch the game. 

How to watch

Date: Thursday, Nov. 17 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video   
Follow: CBS Sports App 
Odds: Packers -3, O/U 41

When the Titans have the ball

We know exactly what's coming on this side of the ball: A heavy dose of Derrick Henry, early and often, and the occasional play-action fake to set up an intermediate-range throw. That's just how the Titans do things. 

The Packers provide a very friendly opponent for this type of strategy. Green Bay often invites opponents to run the ball with its alignment up front, and it is extremely unsuccessful in stopping those runs. The Packers rank 30th in run defense DVOA and 32nd in opponent's Adjusted Line Yards at Football Outsiders, as well as 27th in yards before contact per carry and 25th in opponent's explosive run rate, according to Tru Media. You can run on them pretty much anywhere: They're 24th in Adjusted Line Yards against on runs to the left end, 22nd in runs off left tackle, 27th in runs up the middle, 29th in runs off right tackle, and 26th in runs off right end. 

In other words, this all seems to be setting up quite well for one of those monster Derrick Henry games where he has 30 carries for close to 200 yards and a couple scores. It would be a pretty big upset if the Packers held him in check, and put undue pressure on Ryan Tannehill and the passing attack. 

Tannehill wasn't particularly steady in his return to the lineup last week, but some of that surely had to do with going up against arguably the best pass defense in the NFL. He was just 19 of 36 for 255 yards against the Broncos, with one of his two touchdowns coming on a flea-flicker where Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was completely uncovered. Treylon Burks returned to the fold last week as well, and immediately assumed a sizable role. He didn't do much with it but the talent is there for him to make some big plays -- especially against a Green Bay secondary dealing with multiple injuries. 

When the Packers have the ball

The Packers finally seemed to find a good offensive groove last week against the Cowboys. The strategy involved giving the ball to Aaron Jones over and over again (his 24 carries were one shy of a career-high) with great success (138 yards and a touchdown), spelling him with A.J. Dillon (13 carries for 65 yards) and having Aaron Rodgers essentially throw only targeted deep shots against the Cowboys' weakest cornerbacks. All three of Christian Watson's long touchdowns saw him simply run directly past one of Dallas' non-Trevon Diggs corners (one each against Anthony Brown, Da'Ron Bland, and Kelvin Joseph) as Rodgers led him into open space with the pass. 

There's good news and bad news for the Packers when it comes to this type of attack against Tennessee. The bad news is the Titans have one of the NFL's best run defenses. The Titans rank second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and third in yards allowed per carry. They're first in run defense DVOA at Football Outsiders and first in EPA allowed per rush attempt, according to Tru Media. They've done their best work limiting yards before first contact, as opponents have gained only 0.79 yards before contact per carry; they're the only team in the league making contact with ball-carriers before opponents gain a single yard. 

If you can break through that first tackle, though, they are yards to be gained. Opponents have averaged 3.19 yards after contact per rush against Tennessee -- sixth-most in the NFL. Jones is 10th in the league in yards after contact per carry and fifth in avoided-tackle rate, per Tru Media, so if anybody is going to break one against Tennessee, it might be him. The Titans have also been somewhat vulnerable to passes to opposing running backs, yielding 65 catches (third-most in the NFL) for 388 yards (eighth-most) and three touchdowns (tied for third-most) on throws to players out of the backfield. 

Injuries in the trenches could play a role in this run-game battle, as Bud Dupree is out and Jeffery Simmons is questionable for the Titans, while David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are each questionable for Green Bay. Those potential absences will surely affect Rodgers' protection as well, and dictate how much time he has to target receivers downfield. Tennessee has been extremely friendly to opposing offenses on deep passes this season, ranking 32nd in DVOA and allowing 29 completions on 56 attempts of 16 or more air yards, with those throws resulting in 966 yards (most in the NFL) and five touchdowns.

Prediction: Packers 23, Titans 17