We had a meh Week 3, going 8-8 against-the-spread and 9-7 straight-up. The 2-3 ATS record on my top five picks hurt, as there's no way the Kansas City Chiefs should have lost to the Indianapolis Colts, and Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers completely embarrassed themselves down the stretch against a not-good Denver Broncos team. The Tennessee Titans did surprise me; however, I'll take the 'L' on that one.
We have a fascinating slate to look forward to this week, which means we should see some upsets. There are so many small spreads this week. Get ready for some close games. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 5-10
Overall ATS record: 21-27
Straight up record: 23-24-1
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Trap game? The Jaguars through three weeks are an awesome story that I feel like we aren't talking enough about. Trevor Lawrence looks like he's evolving into the franchise quarterback everyone thought he would be, James Robinson is running like he didn't tear his Achilles last year and then the defense is currently a top 10 unit. In fact, they currently hold the title of best run defense in the NFL, as they are allowing an average of 55 rushing yards per game! The Jaguars are very live to win the AFC South, but the Eagles are topping many people's power rankings this week -- including Pete Prisco's -- for good reason.
Jalen Hurts is the headline for Philly so far, but the defense is a top five unit. They have allowed eight points or fewer in back-to-back games for first time since 2004, and have won back-to-back games by 16-plus points for first time since 2017. The Eagles currently have the No. 1 offense in the NFL and are returning to the loving embrace of their home fans this week, while the Jaguars just won their first road game since 2019 -- back when the Raiders were still in Oakland. Eagles win this game, and I like getting the number under seven. I took the Eagles last week as a best bet and it worked out. Let's go for it again.
The pick: Eagles -6.5
Projected score: Eagles 27-20
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
I think Justin Fields has franchise quarterback potential, but he's not going to show that potential in this offense or with the weapons he has at his disposal. This was a reality I accepted before the season even began. Fields has 297 passing yards on the year. To put that into perspective, there have been 20 individual 300-yard passing games in the NFL this season. The Bears are going to run the ball on offense.
I don't think the Giants are a playoff team, but Saquon Barkley appears to be back. He's second in the NFL in rushing yards with 317, and actually leads the NFL with 408 scrimmage yards. The Giants offensive line is going to have to perform better on Sunday, but I like that this game is at home for New York, and that Fields is 4-8-1 ATS (33%) in his career. That's ranks worst among quarterbacks since last season (minimum 10 starts).
The pick: Giants -3
Projected score: Giants 20-13
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Both of these teams got back on track last week, as the Titans took down the Raiders and the Colts upset the Chiefs. Tennessee and Indianapolis will play twice in the next three weeks, but the Colts haven't defeated the Titans at home since 2018. Indy did shock the NFL world last week against K.C., but the Colts shouldn't have won that game. The Chiefs shot themselves in the foot time and time again, and ended up on the losing end because of it. In reality, the Colts are averaging the fewest points (13.3) in the NFL this season.
This matchup is fascinating, as both the Titans and Colts want to control the tempo with their running backs. Keep an eye on how Derrick Henry is used as a receiver, though. He caught five passes for 58 yards against the Raiders last week. Those 58 receiving yards were the third-most he ever recorded in a regular-season game, his five receptions ranked second and his six targets tied a career high. Check out his receiving props if you're into that stuff.
I think the Titans are the better team in this matchup, but it does frighten me that they have been outscored 57-7 in the second half this year, while the Colts own the biggest fourth-quarter yard margin vs. opponents (+316). Still, getting the Titans at +3.5 feels like good value.
The pick: Titans +3.5
Projected score: Titans 27-24
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
I don't know how much detail I have to go into for this pick, as I'm sure everyone reading this understands where my head is at. Mac Jones suffered what was described as a severe high ankle sprain, and it looks like he's not going to play. That means it will be Brian Hoyer vs. Aaron Rodgers at home.
The Packers are 14-6 ATS since last season, which is tied for the second-best ATS record in that span. Both of the Patriots' losses this season have come by double digits. It wasn't ideal that all of the Packers' 14 points last week came on their first two drives of the game, but the defense came through to keep Green Bay in the win column.
The pick: Packers -9.5
Projected score: Packers 23-10
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The 49ers made me look bad for trusting them last week so I'm fading them this time around. I apologize, I thought Jimmy Garoppolo could be an effective game manager and out-score an offense that has heard nothing but boos through their first two home games. Jimmy G is now 1-4 in primetime since last season.
If you're wondering why the 49ers are favored in this matchup, it's probably because Kyle Shanahan is 6-1 against Sean McVay -- with the lone loss coming in last year's NFC Championship game. Of the last seven matchups between the Rams and 49ers, five of them have been decided by eight points or fewer. In fact, four of them have been decided by exactly three points. However, I don't think it's appropriate to follow the trends in this matchup.
The Rams have a top 10 run defense and the 49ers lost star left tackle Trent Williams for a few weeks due to injury. Give me L.A.
The pick: Rams +1.5
Projected score: Rams 21-13
Other Week 3 picks
Bengals (-3.5) 24-17 over Dolphins
Vikings (-2.5) 23-13 over Saints
Chargers 28-26 over Texans (+5)
Falcons (+1.5) 30-24 over Browns
Lions (-4) 27-20 over Seahawks
Cowboys (-3) 28-24 over Commanders
Steelers (-3) 21-14 over Jets
Bills (-3) 38-30 over Ravens
Cardinals (+1.5) 27-20 over Panthers
Raiders (-2.5) 24-21 over Broncos
Chiefs (-1) 26-23 over Buccaneers
