It was a miss for our Teaser of the Week after the obvious early play -- the San Francisco 49ers -- ended up giving us outstanding closing line value ... then fell on their faces. On the Pick Six Podcast on Friday I tabbed a Falcons-Packers teaser as the best play of Week 13 based on the lines later in the week, so hopefully you listened to the episode and followed that one instead. Still, we're heading into the final stretch with a 7-5-1 record on the season.
Two of the top three selections in our teaser rankings this week involve pair of games that have moved massively off the lookahead lines, shifting a total of 8.5 points of value before we even get to teasing. The first involves a Steelers team that has seen its schedule jerked around all year; after being upset by Washington on Monday, Pittsburgh swung from a 2.5-point favorite against Buffalo to a 2.5-point underdog. Are the Steelers a fundamentally different team today than they were a few days ago? Or are the Bills seeing their value inflate after a win over a 49ers team that still finds itself under .500 on the year?
I've done the legwork of going through all the lines as of Tuesday night and identifying the best teasing opportunities. Below, I've ranked all the sides I think are in play for teasers this week, considering only the standard six-point teasers. You can take the top two options and put them together for my Teaser of the Week, or you can be bold and try and hit a bigger payout.
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Ranking teaser options
1. Steelers +8.5 at Bills
We took one team as 8.5-point underdogs last week against the Bills and that didn't work out for us, but there's a massive difference between rolling with Nick Mullens and what's been an uneven San Francisco defense versus trusting Ben Roethlisberger and one of the unquestioned best defenses in the league. I can't imagine this Buffalo team beating one of the best overall teams in the league by more than a touchdown, so this is an easy play for us.
2. Buccaneers -0.5 vs. Vikings
The Bucs are clearly a great teaser team with Tom Brady coming off a late-season bye and the Vikings needing overtime to put away the Jaguars. Tampa Bay's defense should stonewall Dalvin Cook, and Brady and Co. should have no issue carving up a struggling Minnesota defense. I really wanted to slot the next team in our rankings here at No. 2 and go full lookahead line value in our Teaser of the Week, but how can you get away from a well-rested Bucs team that only has to win outright at home against a team they're clearly better than overall?
3. Chargers +8.5 vs. Falcons
You know your season is going terribly when you find yourself as a home 'dog against a 4-8 team in December and no huge injury skewing the line. But that's what happens the week after you enter a game as around a pick 'em and lose 45-0. Still, the Chargers can have success throwing against a Falcons defense that ranks 29th in net yards per pass attempt, while the Atlanta offense has had its own issues throughout the season. The lookahead here was Chargers -1, so we're getting nearly 10 points of discount off that after the Chargers looked as bad as possible last week. If we didn't have two great teams with great lines above, the Chargers would be a comfortable Teaser of the Week play.
4. Chiefs -1 at Dolphins
I have absolutely no problem throwing this one in teasers even while backing a road favorite, as the Chiefs offense with Patrick Mahomes and the Dolphins offense with Tua Tagovailoa shouldn't even appear on the same scale. Yes, the Chiefs have had problems getting into the end zone lately, but that's not going to last forever. The only thing keeping us from ranking this higher is the road favorite angle.
5. Packers -1.5 at Lions
Here's another road favorite that I think is safe to play despite the Lions' win last week, as the Packers offense should slice through this Detroit defense like butter and name their score. However, I think teasing the Chiefs and Packers together is likely tempting fate a bit too much.
6. Washington +9 at 49ers
Now we get to the NFC East section of our rankings, with Washington playing really well over the last month, including dealing the Steelers their first defeat on Monday. The 49ers looked to be on the rise before getting walloped by the Bills, and I don't see that offense unloading on a strong Washington defense in this matchup. So expect another low-scoring affair that should keep the Football Team in the mix throughout.
7. Giants +8.5 vs. Cardinals
Without knowing what we're getting at quarterback for the Giants, I'm going to be a little cautious and rank them lower than I would otherwise, since this is one of our typical plays we look to move through 3 and 7. But the Giants have put together a run of wins while the Cardinals have dropped three straight, so unless Kyler Murray suddenly regains full health, we can expect the Giants to stay in this game.
8. Saints -1 at Eagles
The Saints defense is playing at a very high level right now and should have no issue slowing down rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts in his first start. I'm still a little apprehensive when it comes to backing Taysom Hill (if he is in fact still under center in place of Drew Brees), and when you add in the road favorite angle with the Eagles defense actually sneakily playing pretty well, this selection appears much lower than you might expect.
9. Titans -1.5 at Jaguars
While it's hard to ever trust the Titans defense, I like them to bounce back this week against a Jaguars team that has played better than expected in their last few games. Like the Packers above, Tennessee can almost name its score in this matchup. So the Titans sneak in as our final teaser option despite their ugly performance last week and their status as road favorites.
Lines to avoid teasing
Texans at Bears (PK)
Don't love teasing either side in a pick 'em matchup, but if there's one I'd prefer it's the Texans. If the line moves against them during the week and they get to +1.5, feel free to jump on them as a teaser option up over a touchdown.
Ravens at Browns (PK)
Same premise applies here as in Texans-Bears, but I'm actually not sure which side I'd prefer to have.
Broncos at Panthers (-4)
We're not teasing the Panthers through zero, but I expect them to come out of the bye looking for a strong finish to the year after they played better than expected during a 3-2 start but fizzled out since.
Patriots at Rams (-5)
I can't trust teasing the Patriots up even to +11 knowing their offense hasn't looked great and they'll be up against one of the top defensive units in the game.
Cowboys (-3.5) at Bengals
Good luck to you if you want to throw the Bengals in a teaser knowing what we've seen from them at quarterback since Joe Burrow's injury.
Colts (-3) at Raiders
The Raiders would be the play here, but they have not looked great over the last few weeks, while the combination of their putrid defense plus the Colts' excellent stop unit gives this blowout potential if Vegas can't get up early.
Jets at Seahawks (-13.5)
We're not going to tease the Seahawks down to -7.5 with how sluggish their offense has looked in recent weeks, and we're not touching the Jets knowing they could fail to reach the end zone on any given Sunday.
