We had our first losing week in quite some time, but are still No. 1 among CBS Sports experts. First one to 100 ATS wins on the season! As far as last week goes, I'm shocked Tua Tagovailoa lost to Brock Purdy, I'm surprised the Seattle Seahawks couldn't cover vs. the Los Angeles Rams and then I'm just unlucky that Lamar Jackson was injured vs. the Denver Broncos.
Week 14 provides us with even more entertaining matchups. The Dallas Cowboys are favored over the Houston Texans by 17(!) points, Deshaun Watson takes the Cleveland Browns to visit the Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants host the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. Also, this year's Mr. Irrelevant is favored by 3.5 points over Tom Brady in his first career start. Amazing.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Top five picks ATS record: 34-30-1
Overall ATS record: 104-85-6
Straight up record: 128-65-2
Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Here, we have one team that has newfound momentum thanks to a three-game win streak, and another team that is likely a loss away from being eliminated from postseason contention, and is already looking forward to 2023. The number is under a touchdown? I'll take it.
CBS Sports research guru Doug Clawson wrote a great piece this week breaking down five reasons why the Raiders can make a playoff run. Their schedule down the stretch isn't too bad, Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams are absolutely rolling, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are nearing returns plus Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby rank 1-2 in the NFL in pressures over the last three weeks. Remember, the Raiders made a late-season run to make the playoffs last year. Maybe they can do it again.
I understand Jacobs is questionable to play with quad and calf injuries, but I'm still going to take the Raiders to win and cover.
The pick: Raiders -6.5
Projected score: Raiders 23-13
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans got their teeth kicked in against the Eagles last week, but they return home to take on a rival they have historically dominated. The Titans have won the last five meetings against the Jaguars, who have defeated the Titans just one time since 2017.
The Titans have had a weird week, but it makes me want to bet on them. Tennessee fired its general manager, Jon Robinson, in what was a surprising move. It was a decision that was praised by fans, but the timing of the decision was surprising. As a Nashville resident, I can tell you Mr. Robinson made both good and bad moves. This year has definitely stuck out, however, because the roster has several gaping holes and the Titans would have a losing record if it were not for head coach Mike Vrabel. I don't think Robinson was disliked in the organization by any means, but this may be a move that galvanizes this roster. Vrabel is beloved, and he now has more control over this team. The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS on the road this season, while the Titans are an impressive 8-4 ATS all year.
The pick: Titans -4
Projected score: Titans 27-21
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I think this is a good spot to fade Deshaun Watson. He was victorious against his former team last week, as the Browns defeated the Texans, 27-14. However, the Watson-led offense didn't score a touchdown! We had a punt returned for a touchdown, a fumble recovery touchdown and a pick six. Those 27 points are the most points scored by a team without an offensive touchdown since 1999, when the Seahawks defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 29-10. The Bengals don't operate like the lowly Texans do. They aren't going to turn the ball over four times.
Watson did not look good in his first game back, and now he has to play another road game in a harsh environment against arguably the hottest team in the NFL. The Bengals were embarrassed by the Browns on Halloween earlier this year, so there's a revenge factor at play, plus with Lamar Jackson banged-up, the Bengals have a chance to take the division lead. Full steam ahead for Joe Burrow and Co.
The pick: Bengals -6
Projected score: Bengals 35-14
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The result of this best bet is going to tell me a lot. I feel like I'm in the minority in believing the Lions still aren't that incredible. I watched them squeak by the Chicago Bears, trounce the Giants, give the Buffalo Bills a game on Thanksgiving and then blow out the Jaguars. I agree, Detroit has a solid offense. But do the Lions deserve to be favorites against one of the two double-digit win teams in the NFL?
This bet is more about the Vikings than it is the Lions. Minnesota's win over the New York Jets last week was pretty fascinating to me, because it was the defense that propelled the Vikings to victory. The Vikings picked off Mike White twice, and held the Jets to just 1 of 6 in the red zone. This defense was asked to come through in the red zone twice in the span of a few minutes late in the fourth quarter. They held the Jets out of the end zone after White had three plays to convert from the 1-yard line, and then picked off the quarterback at the 1-yard line minutes later as he tried to lead a game-winning drive. If this Vikings defense is preparing to play its best ball, that would be huge.
The pick: Vikings +2.5
Projected score: Vikings 28-25
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs are just 5-7 ATS on the year, but boy, I bet they are MAD after last week. Kansas City lost to Cincinnati yet again, making it the Chiefs' seventh loss to the Bengals in their last eight matchups. That is very unfortunate for a bad Broncos team that has heard more boos than cheers from their home crowd this season.
The Chiefs average more points per game than any team in the NFL (29.2), while the Broncos average fewer points per game than any team in the NFL (13.8).
The pick: Chiefs -9.5
Projected score: Chiefs 30-14
Other Week 14 picks
Cowboys 30-14 over Texans (+16.5)
Eagles 27-21 over Giants (+7)
Bills 23-17 over Jets (+9.5)
Steelers (-2.5) 24-21 over Ravens
Seahawks 26-23 over Panthers (+3.5)
49ers 24-23 over Buccaneers (+3.5)
Dolphins (-3) 29-24 over Chargers
Patriots (-1.5) 25-20 over Cardinals
