Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
After watching the Packers play last night, I think I can unequivocally say that their season is over. I mean, it's not technically over, but there's no way that team is making the playoffs, and I'm so sure they won't make it that I will print out this newsletter and eat it with Funyuns if they somehow do make it.
The Packers are now 4-7 on the season through 11 weeks, which means they've already matched their loss total for the past two seasons COMBINED. Anyway, we'll be recapping last night's game, plus we'll be making some bold predictions for Week 11 along with some game picks, so let's get to the rundown.
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them.
1. Today's show: Titans-Packers recap
With their 27-17 win over the Packers last night, the Titans are now 7-3, which makes them the ONLY team in the NFL that has started 7-3 or better in each of the past three seasons. Not only do they have a comfortable 2.5-game lead in the AFC South, but they're only a half game behind the Chiefs for the top seed in the AFC. After shocking everyone by earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season, the Titans might just surprise everyone by doing it again.
Everyone's sleeping on the Titans, except for Ryan Wilson, Will Brinson and I, and that's because we didn't sleep last night. Instead, we recorded a 30-minute podcast about the game. Here are a few key points from the game that we went over:
- Ryan Tannehill looks like the real deal. When Tannehill is playing well, the Titans are almost impossible to beat, and he was playing well Thursday night. The Titans QB completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards and two touchdowns. The passing total was his highest since Week 2 of 2021. Tannehill was so good throwing the ball downfield that it was scary. He completed four passes of 30 yards or more, which allowed him to finish with 12.3 yards per attempt on the night. That number is notable because it was the second-highest average ever by a visiting QB at Lambeau Field (only Randall Cunningham had more). The Titans finished with 408 yards of offense, marking the first time this season they've topped the 400-yard mark.
- Titans wide receivers have a breakout game. Tennessee's offense revolves around Derrick Henry, so the receivers don't always get in on the action, but they saw plenty of action in Green Bay, led by rookie Treylon Burks, who caught seven passes for 111 yards in just his second game back since being placed on injured reserve in early October. The Titans also got a big game from Robert Woods, who caught a season-high six passes for 69 yards. Even Nick Westbrook-Ikhine got in on the action with two catches for 28 yards.
- Oh Henry. If the Titans have a big night on offense, you know that Derrick Henry must have been involved, and that was the case against the Packers. Although Green Bay held Henry in check on the ground -- he averaged just 3.1 yards per carry -- he still managed to do some damage. Not only did Henry total 132 yards (87 rush, 45 receiving), but he also THREW a touchdown pass. During the third quarter, Henry threw a JUMP pass to Austin Hooper that you can check out by clicking here. (That was actually one of two touchdowns that Hooper caught in the game.) Thanks to the TD pass, Henry is now just one of nine players in NFL history who has rushed for at least 75 touchdowns AND thrown multiple TD passes in his career. Henry also became the first player this season to hit the 1,000-yard rushing mark.
- Packers fans boo the home team. The Packers offense was so bad Thursday night that fans started booing after Aaron Rodgers threw an incomplete pass in the fourth quarter (you can hear the boos here.) Rodgers hasn't been great this season, and he continued to struggle against the Titans. He missed multiple wide open receivers, and his worse miss arguably came on a third-and-3 midway through the fourth quarter when he overthrew Allen Lazard. The Packers scored on their second possession of the game, but didn't really do much after that on a night where Rodgers went 24 of 39 for just 227 yards. (Rodgers has now gone 16 straight games without hitting the 300-yard mark.) Despite the offensive struggles, Christian Watson was a bright spot. The rookie caught four passes for 48 yards along with two more touchdown passes. Watson now has five touchdowns in a two-game span, which is tied for the second most by any rookie since 1970. (Randy Moss holds the record with six.)
- Titans offensive coordinator charged with DUI. The Titans played their best offensive game of the season, but offensive coordinator Todd Downing didn't get to celebrate for very long, and that's because he spent part of his night in jail. Downing was charged with DUI and speeding after being pulled over. Downing was booked into jail at 4:39 a.m. and made bail roughly two hours later with a release time of 6:46 a.m. CT. The Titans OC was arrested in Williamson County, which is just south of Nashville. Not only is Downing facing potential legal ramifications, but he could also be punished by the NFL. The league's personal conduct policy applies to coaches, and anyone who gets hit with a DUI can be suspended for up to three games as a first-time offender.
If you want to hear our entire recap of the game, be sure to click here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Today's show Part II: Best bets for Week 11
The best part about Friday -- besides the fact that it's Friday -- is that you get two episodes of the podcast in your feed. After recording the Thursday night postgame podcast with Wilson and myself, Brinson kicked us to the curb so that he could record his weekly picks show with Pete Prisco and R.J. White.
Those three guys spent nearly 60 minutes going over their best bets for every single game being played in Week 11, and we're going to cover three of those bets from each guy below. You actually might want to listen to them this week because they're coming off a pretty solid Week 10 where they combined to go 6-3. They've now gone a combined 19-7-1 over the past three weeks.
Pete Prisco (2-1 last week in picks covered here, 19-10-1 on the season)
- Colts (+7) to cover against the Eagles
- Saints (-3.5) to cover against the Rams
- Ravens at Panthers OVER 41 points
R.J. White (3-0 last week in picks covered here, 18-11-1 on the season)
- Patriots (-3) to cover against the Jets
- Giants (-3) to cover against the Lions
- Bears at Falcons OVER 49 points
Will Brinson (1-2 last week in picks covered here, 15-14-1 on the season)
- Ravens (-13) to cover against the Panthers
- Vikings (+1.5) to cover against the Cowboys
- Rams at Saints UNDER 39
To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 11 -- and there are quite a few -- you can check out the episode on YouTube by clicking here.
3. NFL Week 11 picks: Raiders and Vikings both pull off upset wins
This is the final newsletter of the week, which means we will be cramming as many Week 11 picks as humanly possible into this space.
With that in mind, we've got five more Week 11 picks coming your way, and those will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco along with Will Brinson, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself.
Here's how things are going to work: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on. Every pick that was featured here last week ended up being correct, so let's see if we can make it two weeks in row.
- Pete Prisco -- Raiders (+2.5) 28-21 over Broncos. From Prisco: "This is a game between two of the bigger disappointments in the league. The Broncos can't score and the Raiders can't stop anybody. Something has to give. I think the Raiders will get their stops and Derek Carr and the offense will find a way to win it." For the rest of Prisco's Week 11 picks, be sure to click here.
- Will Brinson -- Vikings (+1.5) 24-21 over Cowboys. From Brinson: "What if the Vikings are just good? Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson are unequivocally top five at their position. Hate them all you want, but they just keep winning." For the rest of Brinson's Week 11 picks, be sure to click here.
- Tyler Sullivan -- Patriots (-3.5) 27-17 over Jets. From Sullivan: "Bill Belichick simply has Zach Wilson's number. The Jets QB is 0-3 against the Patriots in his career, and his teams have averaged just 12 points per game in those losses. Also, he owns a passer rating of just 50.5, so I can't take the Jets." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 11 picks, be sure to click here.
- Jordan Dajani -- Eagles (-7) 30-20 over Colts. From Dajani: "The Eagles were bound to lose at some point, and honestly, what happened Monday night was probably a good thing. All that 'undefeated' talk can cease, and Philly can regroup. The Eagles are still the best team in the NFC in my mind. ... They have the best turnover margin in the NFL this season (+13), while the Colts have the second-worst turnover margin (-9). I like getting the number at seven as well. Philly is 5-4 ATS this season while Indy is 4-6 ATS." For the rest of Dajani's Week 11 best bets, be sure to click here.
- John Breech -- Bengals (-4) 27-20 over Steelers. The Bengals won't have Ja'Marr Chase, they've lost five of their last six in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers will have T.J. Watt, which all seem like good reasons to pick the Steelers. Despite all that, I feel like the Bengals just have more overall talent, so I'm picking them. For the rest of my Week 11 picks, be sure to click here.
4. NFL moves Browns-Bills game to Detroit
With a monstrous snowstorm in Western New York, the NFL made the decision Thursday to move the Browns-Bills game out of Buffalo. Is this good news for the Browns? Who now has the advantage?
Here's everything you need to know about the situation:
- Game is being moved to Detroit. The only thing that's changing about the game is the location. The time (1 p.m. ET) and the day (Sunday) will both be staying the same. In the past, the NFL has been known to move games from Sunday to Monday for weather-related issues, but that wasn't an option here because the Bills play on Thanksgiving.
- Why this could be an advantage for the Browns. For the Browns, the new game site comes with one potentially big advantage: The Bills are going to be losing their home-field advantage. With the game being moved closer to Cleveland, it will be easier for Browns fans to get to the game. Also, and more importantly, it will likely be easier for Browns fans to get tickets, which means there could be a strong Browns contingent in Detroit. The Browns are 1-3 on the road this year, so playing a neutral site game instead of a true road game is definitely a good thing for them.
- Why this could be an advantage for the Bills. Although the Bills will be losing their home-field advantage, they will get a slight benefit this week in the form of less travel. With Buffalo playing in Detroit on Sunday and Thursday, that will cut down their traveling schedule. Thanksgiving week can be hectic for any players who have a game on Thanksgiving, but the Bills will get to spend four days in Detroit leading up to the game, which should make for easier preparation.
- Bills cancel Friday's practice. The snowstorm hitting Buffalo is already causing issues for the Bills, with the team being forced to cancel their Friday practice. The team is expected to fly to Detroit on Saturday, but first, they have to get to the airport. During a similar situation back in 2014 -- where a Bills game got moved to Detroit due to snow -- several players were forced to ride a snowmobile to the airport.
This week's game will mark the sixth time since 2000 that a game has been forced to change locations due to weather, and if you want to check out the full list of games that have been moved, be sure to click here. If you want an idea of what the snow looks like so far in Buffalo, you can see a few pictures here. You can also see some thunder snow by clicking here.
5. Five bold predictions for Week 11
There's nothing we love here more than making bold predictions, so we asked Jared Dubin to come up with five of them for Week 11.
With that in mind let's take a look at his predictions:
- Bills drop 40 on the Browns. "The Bills have lost back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 13 and 14 of last season. And just like the Bills got back on track following back-to-back losses a year ago by demolishing an inferior opponent, they will do the same this year. In 2021, it was a 31-14 victory over the Panthers. This year, the Bills will hang a 40-spot on the Browns in a game played inside Detroit's Ford Field dome."
- Jets beat the Patriots. "Zach Wilson always seems to struggle against the Patriots, so it's highly unlikely that he's going to be the one to win this game for New York. Instead, we're counting on the defense, which is one of the best in the NFL, to make things incredibly uncomfortable for Mac Jones and company on offense. The Jets hold the Pats to just one touchdown in this contest and win a low-scoring affair."
- Justin Fields hits 100 rushing yards for a third consecutive game. "The Falcons have faced only five designed quarterback runs this season, but those plays have gained 101 yards and a touchdown. They've also faced only seven scrambles from opposing quarterbacks this season, so they may not be prepared for what Fields has in store for them in that department."
- Kadarius Toney scores a rushing TD and receiving TD. "Mecole Hardman went on injured reserve earlier this week, JuJu Smith-Schuster may or may not clear concussion protocol in time for this game, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is dealing with an illness, which means the door could be open this week for Toney to have a huge game."
- Ezekiel Elliott gets more snaps than Tony Pollard. "Pollard is very obviously the Cowboys' best running back. This is obvious to everyone outside the Jones family. The problem with that is that the Jones family owns the Cowboys, and seems to dictate that Elliott be the center of the game plan."
For a full look at Dubin's bold predictions, be sure to click here.
6. Rapid-fire roundup: Commanders hit with another lawsuit
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- DC Attorney General going after Commanders again. For the second time in as many weeks, the attorney general in Washington D.C. has filed a lawsuit against the Commanders. This time, the team is being sued for allegedly "implementing an illegal scheme to cheat District ticket holders out of their deposits for season tickets and use the money for its own purposes." You can check out a few more details on the lawsuit by clicking here.
- Eagles sign Ndamukong Suh. It took just over 10 weeks, but Suh has finally signed with a team. The five-time Pro Bowler is headed to Philadelphia after signing a deal Thursday. After losing to the Commanders in Week 10, the Eagles clearly realized that they had a weakness in stopping the run, so they moved quickly to fix that weakness by adding Suh.
- Mecole Hardman placed on IR. The Chiefs receiver is going to miss at least the next four weeks after being placed on injured reserve with an abdomen injury. The move means Hardman won't be eligible to play again until Week 15 when the Chiefs play in Houston.
- Jets sign former Chiefs offensive lineman. The Jets have added some depth on the offensive line in the form of Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. The lineman, who doubles as a medical doctor, took time off in 2020 to help fight COVID. LDF played in eight games for the Jets last season and will now be returning to the team. Duvernay-Tardiff had put his football career on hold in June so that he could finish his medical residency.
- MetLife Stadium getting new turf. There have been a lot of complaints about the turf at MetLife Stadium, and it appears the stadium is now going to do something about it. MetLife announced that it would be changing playing surfaces in 2023. However, the stadium likely won't be switching over to grass because the surface takes such a beating with both the Jets and Giants playing there. Instead, MetLife will likely be installing the most technologically advanced synthetic turf available.
