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USATSI

It's another week in the NFL and another week of our picks. Week 10 had everything you wanted in a slate. There were overtime thrillers, insane individual plays and upsets all over the place. While intoxicating to watch, last week wasn't particularly kind to yours truly, going 1-4 in my locks of the week. The most damming loss out of that group was certainly laying six points with the Raiders for them to fall versus Jeff Saturday and the Colts. We did nail a big win for the Dolphins and were .500 with the rest of our picks, but we'll look to pump those numbers up as we eye Week 11. 

This weekend, there are a number of things to keep an eye on from a betting standpoint. While it's not included in my five locks, it's worth pointing out that there is a winter storm warning that could impact Bills-Browns this weekend, as it's forecasted that the Buffalo area could get one to two feet of snow. As for my locks, we'll be keying in on a couple of divisional matchups and continuing to ride the Justin Fields hype train. 

Let's get to it. 

2022 record

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS
: 23-24-3
ATS: 68-77-5
ML: 87-63

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

Jets at Patriots

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

Bill Belichick simply has Zach Wilson's number. He is 0-3 SU and ATS against the Patriots in his career, his teams average just 12 points per game, and he owns a passer rating of just 50.5. 

In their matchup back in Week 8, New England's defense was able to torment the Jets quarterback, forcing him into three interceptions en route to the 22-17 win. All of those picks came while Wilson was under pressure, and you can expect a similar formula when he rolls into Gillette Stadium on Sunday. The Patriots are tied for the second-most sacks in the NFL entering Week 11, and their 37% pressure rate ranks fourth in the league. When pressured this season, Wilson has a 6.6 passer rating, which is the worst in the NFL and on pace to be the worst by any quarterback in the past five seasons. 

Projected score: Patriots 27, Jets 17
The pick: Patriots -3

49ers vs. Cardinals (Monday)

Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

It's important to note that this is a neutral site game, as the Niners and Cardinal will be squaring off in Mexico City. It's almost as important to add that the status of Kyler Murray is still not 100% certain, as he is still nursing a hamstring injury. Still, I'm comfortable laying the points to go with San Francisco. It was unable to cover last week in the SU win over the Chargers, but continues to show flashes of a high-powered offense. The Christian McCaffrey trade has done wonders for Jimmy Garoppolo's efficiency, as he has a 126.3 passer rating when the back is on the field. 

While that gives you confidence that San Francisco will be able to put up points, I'm backing the Niners more for their defense. It is allowing a league-low 280.1 yards per game, and its 18.1 points per game ranks as the fourth lowest. A large part of that is thanks to Nick Bosa, who has terrorized opposing quarterbacks with a league-leading 24 QB hits. That type of pressure against either Colt McCoy or a banged-up Kyler Murray should keep this Arizona offense in check.

Projected score: 49ers 28, Cardinals 17
The pick: 49ers -8

Eagles at Colts 

Featured Game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles

You have to give credit to Jeff Saturday and the Colts. After one of the more bizarre situations that we've seen in some time with his hiring, Saturday was able to lead his team to a road win against the Raiders. However, I'm still going to bet against this situation for the time being. Indy got an initial jolt, but with this number now under a touchdown, I'm going to pounce. Yes, Philly is no longer undefeated and has shown some warts stopping the run, but it is still a far better team. 

The Eagles have shown us they can get after the quarternack, grading as a top five unit, according to Pro Football Focus. That plays into our hands perfectly with this matchup against a Colts offensive line that continues to struggle in protection, ranking 29th in pass blocking, per PFF. 

We also have a little bit of a revenge narrative for Philly coach Nick Sirianni, who was the Colts offensive coordinator from 2018-2020. This will be his first game against his former club, which adds a little juice to the matchup. 

Projected score: Eagles 27, Colts 20
The pick: Eagles -6.5

Bears at Falcons

Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears

Justin Fields has been the most dynamic quarterback in the NFL for the past few weeks. Something has clicked with the Bears signal-caller, and he has been dominating with the combination of timely passing and elite rushing ability. Part of that success is the coaching staff crafting its play-calling around his skillset. Since Week 7, Fields has seen 31 designed running plays. In the six games prior, he only saw 12 such plays. 

Meanwhile, they're heading to Atlanta to face a Falcons team that seems to be trending in the wrong direction. After starting 6-0 ATS, the Falcons have failed to cover in four straight. Marcus Mariota has struggled over the past few games, and he had several questionable throws in their loss to Carolina last week. So, you're telling me I can back the team with a better quarterback and have a field goal in my pocket? Yes, please. It's also nice to know that Arthur Smith is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite since last season. 

One last thing to note: Fields is a Georgia native, and the Falcons did pass on him when they owned the No. 4 overall pick in 2020, opting to draft Kyle Pitts instead. With that in mind, he could be coming into this game with a little extra motivation to prove his hometown team wrong. 

Projected score: Bears 24, Falcons 21
The pick: Bears +3

Lions at Giants

Featured Game | New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions

Similar to last week, this feels like a game where Saquon Barkley can truly dominate. The Lions are allowing 160.9 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks 31st in the NFL. However, Detroit's defense isn't just leaky against the run; it's just bad. It is last in points per game (29.3), yards per game (416.2), yards per play (6.5) and third-down percentage (51%). Detroit was only able to win last week thanks to a bad throw by Justin Fields that was returned for a touchdown. Daniel Jones won't make those types of mistakes to open the door for the Lions, as he has the fourth-lowest turnover rate in the NFL this season.

Projected score: Giants 30, Lions 21
The pick: Giants -3

Rest of the bunch

Titans at Packers
Projected score: Titans 24, Packers 21
The pick: Titans +3

Browns at Bills
Projected score: Bills 24, Browns 17
The pick: Browns +8

Rams at Saints
Projected score: Saints 24, Rams 21
The pick: Rams +4

Panthers at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 27, Panthers 17
The pick: Panthers +12

Commanders at Texans
Projected score: Commanders 24, Texans 17
The pick: Commanders -3

Raiders at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 23, Raiders 20
The pick: Broncos -2.5

Cowboys at Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 27, Cowboys 24
The pick: Vikings +1

Bengals at Steelers
Projected score: Bengals 24, Steelers 21
The pick: Steelers +4.5

Chiefs at Chargers
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Chargers 23
The pick: Chiefs -6.5