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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I'm still not sure how it happened, but the Bears somehow steamrolled the Patriots last night. At one point, I thought I had fallen asleep and that I was dreaming the final score, but nope, the Bears actually beat the Patriots, 33-14. 

The Patriots couldn't stop the run, they couldn't stop the pass, and now they have a quarterback controversy, so as you can tell, things are going great in New England. 

In today's newsletter, we'll be taking a look at how the Bears were able to pull off the upset, plus we'll be covering the benching of Matt Ryan

As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. Today's show: Recapping the Bears' shocking win over New England

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Justin Fields Getty Images

For the first time in franchise history, the Bears went into Foxboro and beat the Patriots. (They had been 0-4 before Monday night.) The only thing more surprising than Chicago's 33-14 win was how good our podcast was afterward. Following the Bears' win, Ryan Wilson, Will Brinson and I spent roughly 30 minutes breaking down the game.  

With that in mind, here are four key things from the game that we talked about: 

  • Justin Fields had the best game of his career. The Bears had 11 days to prepare for this game, and it appears they actually used their time wisely. The team's offensive game-plan actually took advantage of Justin Fields' unique skillset, and he responded by having the best game of his career. Fields ran the ball 14 times for 82 yards on the night, and 12 of those runs came on designed run calls. To put that in perspective, the Bears only called 38 designed runs in Field's first 18 games (2.1 per game), according to NFL's Next Gen Stats. The Bears have a mobile QB who they're finally figuring out how to use. Fields also threw for 179 yards and a touchdown. The Bears QB also came up with several huge third-down conversions on a night where Chicago went 11 for 16 on third down (66.1% conversion rate). Six of those conversions came on third-and-5 or more, including one that came on third-and-14 and another one that came on third-and-16. On one play, which you can see here, Fields fumbled the snap and STILL converted a third-and-6. Fields never blinked in this game, even after watching his team fall behind, 14-10. From that point forward, the Bears outscored the Patriots, 23-0. 
  • Bears ground game steamrolled the Patriots. The Bears rushed for 243 yards against the Patriots, which is the most New England has ever given up in a home loss under Bill Belichick. (The last team to rush for at least 240 yards and beat the Patriots in Foxboro was the Steelers back in December 1990.) Fields kept the Patriots defense off-balance with his running, which opened up giant holes for David Montgomery (15 carries, 62 yards) and Khalil Herbert (12 carries, 62 yards). The Bears have now had at least three players hit 60 rushing yards in consecutive games, marking the first time since 1977 that that's happened. The Bears also topped 200 rushing yards for the second straight week, marking the first time since 1985 that they've pulled off that feat. Every Bears team loves to be mentioned in the same breath as the 1985 Bears, who went 15-1 and beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. 
  • Bears defense shut down the Patriots. Speaking of the 1985 Bears, Chicago's defense kind of played like them on Monday night. The Bears got a lot of pressure on the Patriots QB duo of Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones, and although the defense only recorded one sack, that pressure helped lead to three interceptions. Overall, the Bears defense forced four turnovers. The team is now 20-0 since the start of the 2009 season when forcing at least four turnovers in a game. 
  • New England might now have a QB controversy. Bill Belichick was coy all week about who his starter would be Monday night. He ended up going with Mac Jones, a decision that completely backfired on him. Jones, who hadn't played in four weeks, looked like a guy who hadn't played in four weeks. The Patriots went three-and-out on his first two possessions, and then Belichick benched him after he threw a pick on his third possession. After Bailey Zappe entered the game, he quickly led the Patriots out of a 10-0 hole by leading two straight scoring drives to give New England a 14-10 lead. At that point, it felt like the job was probably his going forward, but then he did nothing in the second half. The Patriots scored zero points and only totaled 87 offensive yards in the game's final two quarters. Zappe was 9 of 16 for 76 yards with two interceptions in the second half. Although reports suggested Jones would likely be the starter when he's healthy, Belichick wouldn't commit to that after the game. You can read more about the Patriots' QB controversy by clicking here

We talked about those four things, plus everything else you could possibly want to know about Monday's game. If you want to listen to the rest of our recap, be sure to click here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here.

2. Details on Matt Ryan's benching: Why it happened and whether Sam Ehlinger can fix things

The Colts made a stunning decision Monday when they decided to send Matt Ryan to the bench for the rest of the season. The Colts have decided to move forward with Sam Ehlinger, who has started zero games and thrown exactly zero passes since being selected in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. 

So why did the Colts finally make this decision?  

  • Ryan has been abysmal this year. The Colts were hoping that Ryan would be an upgrade over Carson Wentz, but that simply hasn't been the case. Through seven weeks, Ryan has the most interceptions in the NFL (nine), the most fumbles (11 (three lost)) and the most turnovers (12). He's also taken 24 sacks, which is tied for the most in the NFL. Ryan suffered a shoulder injury in Week 7 that was going to keep him from playing in Week 8, so the Colts viewed that as the perfect time to just put him on ice for the rest of the season. 
  • Colts still owe Ryan a lot of money. Ryan might be the backup now, but the Colts still have to pay him like he's the starter. When the Colts traded for Ryan, they picked up a contract that included $24.7 million in guaranteed money for 2022 and $12 million guaranteed for 2023, which means the Colts will be paying him a lot of money next season whether he's on the team or not. 
  • Can Ehlinger save the day? Ehlinger has never even thrown an NFL pass, and even Frank Reich admitted that the move to starter is going to be a big jump for the second-year QB, "It's a big step, but we think he's ready," Reich said, via the Colts' website. "This guy's special. Just talk to anybody that walks in that locker room -- we're fortunate to have a guy like (Sam), really three quarterbacks like that. But Sam, he's got that about him. He carries himself in a way, he plays, he practices in a way where he'll be ready. He'll be ready."
  • Why the Colts drafted him. When the Colts selected Ehlinger, they took him because they believe he showed off the "it" factor while playing quarterback at Texas. During his four years as the Longhorns' starter, Ehlinger produced with both his right arm and his legs. Ehlinger threw for 11,436 yards over the course of his career, which is the second-most in school history. He also threw 94 touchdown passes, including a career-high 32 in 2019. One thing Ehlinger has that Ryan definitely doesn't have is mobility. During his time in Austin, Ehlinger rushed for 1,903 yards and 33 touchdowns, including 16 rushing touchdowns in 2018, which is the school-record for a QB. 

The Colts have no idea if Ehlinger is going to solve their QB problems, but they're going to find out soon if he's the answer. Ehlinger will be the seventh starting QB Reich has had in his five seasons as coach. He'll be joining a list that already includes Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett, Brian Hoyer, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Ryan. 

3. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 8

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Kenneth Walker III (left) and Geno Smith Getty Images

Pete Prisco had to stay up late last night re-shuffling his power rankings, and that's because the upset win by Chicago threw a wrench into things for Prisco. He punished the Patriots by dropping them more than any other team this week. With that in mind, let's get to this week's rankings. 

Here's a look at Prisco's top-five teams heading into Week 8: 

  1. Eagles
  2. Bills
  3. Chiefs (up from No. 4 last week)
  4. Vikings (down from No. 3 last week) 
  5. Giants  

Dropped out: No one. 

I'm not going to spoil the rest of the power rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since last week. 

  • The biggest jump this week went to the Seattle Seahawks. Two weeks ago, the Seahawks were 27th in Prisco's rankings, but now they're all the way up to 12th after moving up nine spots following their win over the Chargers
  • The Ravens and Dolphins tied for the biggest jump in the AFC, with both teams moving up six spots. The Ravens made the move from 17th to 11th while the Dolphins jumped up from 16th to 10th. 
  • The biggest drop in Prisco's Power Rankings went to the Patriots. After watching New England get embarrassed Monday night, Prisco moved them down five spots from 11th to 16th. 
  • As for the bottom of the rankings, we have a new team in the NFL cellar! Going into Week 7, the Panthers were ranked dead last, but after beating the Buccaneers on Sunday, Carolina is now ranked 31st. The new worst team is the Detroit Lions, who turned the ball over five times in a loss to the Cowboys on Sunday.     

If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 8 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything.

4. Breech's Week 8 picks: Tom Brady's Buccaneers continue to spiral out of control

If it's Tuesday, that can only mean one thing: It's time for my weekly picks. 

If this is your first season with us, here's how the formula works around here: I stay up until an insane hour every Monday night so that I can give you my picks every Tuesday morning. This newsletter will feature three of my picks, and then if you feel like reading the rest of them, you can do that below. 

Last week, I predicted that the Chiefs would beat the 49ers by double digits and that's exactly what happened, so let's just go ahead and assume all of my picks will be right this week. 

Here are three of my picks for Week 8:  

  • Ravens (-1.5) at Buccaneers (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime): The Buccaneers offense is broken and their defense can't stop the run, which seems like two huge problems. The Ravens have held a double-digit lead in every game they've played this season, and if they get one against Tampa Bay, it's hard to see the Bucs making any sort of comeback considering how bad their offense has looked. PICK: Ravens 23-20 over Buccaneers. 
  • Panthers (+6.5) at Falcons (1 p.m. ET, Fox): This game might not seem sexy, but if the Buccaneers lose Thursday, then FIRST PLACE IN THE NFC SOUTH will be on the line here. I can't imagine the Panthers being in first place, so for that reason alone, I'm going with the Falcons. Also, Carolina can't stop the run and running the ball is the only thing the Falcons offense knows how to do.  PICK: Falcons 23-17 over Panthers.  
  • Giants at Seahawks (-3) (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox): This game will be giving us a showdown featuring the only two quarterbacks that Eli Manning ever got benched for (Daniel Jones and Geno Smith). I'm not sure why I'm mentioning that, but I am sure that I'm picking the Seahawks to win. PICK: Seahawks 34-27 over Giants. 

To check out the rest of my picks for Week 8, be sure to click here

5. Five teams most likely to change head coaches after the 2022 season

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Nathaniel Hackett USATSI

It's been just over two weeks since Matt Rhule got fired by the Panthers, and if NFL history is any indication, he definitely won't be the only coach to lose his job between now and January. Every year, we see five or six coaches get axed in the NFL, so who else out there might not make it to the 2023 season? 

Cody Benjamin, the guy who's famous around these parts for writing the Wednesday newsletter, came up with a list of the five teams that will most likely be looking for a new coach once we get to the offseason. 

  • Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett. "With each week, this becomes less an exaggerated public narrative and more a reality: Nathaniel Hackett doesn't seem to have any answers as head of the NFL's lowest-scoring offense. Wilson's mega contract ensures he won't be positively expendable until 2025, which means Denver's new ownership group could be motivated to give him a new coach and play-caller if the 2-5 record doesn't improve much. It's not unprecedented, by the way, for teams to can a coach after just one year; it's happened seven times in the last 11 years."
  • Colts coach Frank Reich. "It's certainly not all Reich's fault he's endured such QB turnover during his time in Indy, but at 3-3-1 and in danger of missing the playoffs in a bad AFC South, he's staring at a five-year run of exactly one postseason victory. Owner Jim Irsay won't stand for it."
  • Commanders coach Ron Rivera. "The best thing Ron Rivera has going for him is a very public role in the apparent cultural turnaround of a controversy-ridden franchise. There's little doubt he remains a respected leader. What he isn't -- and hasn't been for a half-decade -- is a winning football coach."
  • Saints coach Dennis Allen. "His watch has produced one of the most conservative yet undisciplined teams in the NFL en route to a 2-5 start in a bad NFC South. Worse yet, his once-vaunted defense has been a sieve. A flop as Raiders coach earlier in his career, he's another candidate for a 'mutual' parting of ways in the event New Orleans goes bigger to really replace Payton in 2023."
  • Texans coach Lovie Smith. "Smith's kept the squad competitive, to be sure, but Houston brass has done too much sniffing around the concept of Josh McCown at head coach to cap a potential third straight season out of the playoffs by recommitting to Lovie."

To check out Cody's full list, be sure to click here

6. Rapid-fire roundup: Jets make trade for James Robinson

It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

  • Jets add James Robinson. With Breece Hall out for the season due to a torn ACL, the Jets didn't waste any time bringing in a replacement. The Jets acquired Robinson from the Jaguars in a deal where Jacksonville will be getting a conditional sixth-round pick in return. The pick becomes a fifth-rounder if Robinson rushes for 600 yards this year, which seems likely since he already has 340 yards, and that total counts toward the 600. Robinson got off to a hot start this season -- he rushed for 100 yards in a Week 3 win over the Chargers -- but he lost snaps to Travis Etienne as the season wore on. Robinson didn't touch the ball a single time in Week 7. 
  • Jets get more bad news. Not only did the Jets lose Breece Hall for the season, but they also suffered an equally big loss on the offensive line. Jets coach Robert Saleh announced that right tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker will also miss the rest of the season after suffering a triceps injury. 
  • Chargers hit with two ugly injuries. The Chargers biggest signing of the offseason was J.C. Jackson, and he won't be on the field for the rest of the year after rupturing his patellar tendon on Sunday. The Chargers will also be without Mike Williams for several weeks after the receiver suffered a high ankle sprain in the team's loss to Seattle. 
  • P.J. Walker to start for the Panthers this week. After leading the Panthers to a win over the Buccaneers on Sunday, Carolina has decided to reward Walker with another start. Even with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold potentially coming back from injury, interim coach Steve Wilks has decided to stick with Walker.  
  • NFL investigates incident involving refs. Someone at the Buccaneers-Panthers game caught two officials on video apparently trying to score an autograph from Mike Evans, but after investigating, the league says the refs weren't actually trying to get autographs. For more on this situation, be sure to click here
  • Kyle Juszczyk likely out for Week 8 game vs. Rams. The 49ers fullback likely won't be on the field this week after breaking his pinky finger against the Chiefs. (If you want to see what the broken finger looks like, you can click here.) Although the fullback will likely miss this week's game, the 49ers have a bye in Week 9, so he should be good to go by the time they return to the field in Week 10.