Recent precedents indicate the New England Patriots will have an extremely hard time repeating as Super Bowl champions next season, and it's all New England's fault.
See, by defeating the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX Sunday in Arizona, the Pats blocked Seattle from becoming the first NFL team since 2004 to successfully defend a championship.
The good news is the last team to repeat was, in fact, New England, which beat the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles by three points apiece in 2003 and '04. And yeah, only one player on the current roster was a member of those teams, but he's also their most important player, quarterback Tom Brady.
Can the Brady/Bill Belichick duo put together another successful title defense in order to put an end to the longest league-wide title defense drought in history?
| Longest stretches without repeat champions, NFL history | |||
| Stretch | Length | Preceded by | Followed by |
| 2005-present | 10 years | Patriots (2003-04) | Ongoing |
| 1980-88 | Nine years | Steelers (1978-79) | 49ers (1988-89) |
| 1942-48 | Seven years | Bears (1940-41) | Eagles (1948-49) |
| 1934-40 | Seven years | Bears (1932-33) | Bears (1940-41) |
Free agency and the salary cap were bound to do this, as was the continued expansion of the league. But the Patriots can defy the odds. Some advice:
1. Get better: This is both broad and obvious, but it's something a lot of recent Super Bowl winners have failed to grasp and/or accomplish. The 2014 New England Patriots wouldn't likely win the 2015 Super Bowl. The status quo doesn't result in repeats.
But the Patriots know this. They won three Super Bowls between 2001 and 2004, but the '01 team had only six starters in common with the '04 team.
| 2001 Super Bowl starting roster vs. 2004 Super Bowl starting roster | |||
| Position | Player | Player | Position |
| QB | Tom Brady | Tom Brady | QB |
| RB | Antowain Smith | Corey Dillon | RB |
| FB | Marc Edwards | Patrick Pass | FB |
| WR | David Patten | David Givens | WR |
| WR | Troy Brown | Deion Branch | WR |
| TE | Jermaine Wiggins | Daniel Graham | TE |
| OT | Matt Light | Matt Light | OT |
| G | Joe Andruzzi | Joe Andruzzi | G |
| C | Damien Woody | Dan Koppen | C |
| G | Mike Compton | Steve Neal | G |
| OT | Greg Randall | Brandon Gorin | OT |
| DE | Bobby Hamilton | Vince Wilfork | NT |
| DT | Brandon Mitchell | Jarvis Green | DE |
| DT | Richard Seymour | Willie McGinest | LB |
| DE | Anthony Pleasant | Rosevelt Colvin | LB |
| LB | Mike Vrabel | Mike Vrabel | LB |
| LB | Tedy Bruschi | Tedy Bruschi | LB |
| LB | Roman Phifer | Roman Phifer | LB |
| CB | Ty Law | Randall Gay | CB |
| CB | Otis Smith | Asante Samuel | CB |
| SS | Lawyer Milloy | Rodney Harrison | SS |
| FS | Tebucky Jones | Eugene Wilson | FS |
The Patriots didn't sit on their hands after winning in 2003. They averaged only 3.4 yards per carry in '03, but they went out and traded for three-time Pro Bowl running back Corey Dillon, who jump-started the running game with the best season of his career in '04. As a result, their rush offense shot up from 27th in football to seventh in their title defense season.
They also nailed it with their first-round draft pick, selecting NFL-ready big man Vince Wilfork. The Miami product excelled as a starting nose tackle down the stretch and started the Super Bowl against Philly.
The point is they tried to build on what they had the first time around, and it worked like a charm.
So, what do the Patriots have to improve upon this offseason?
They should start by adding some support for Brady and the running game by reinforcing the interior offensive line. It's about time they properly replace Logan Mankins, because Dan Connolly didn't get the job done in 2014.
Mankins was a perennial Pro Bowl left guard before being abruptly traded when he wouldn't take a pay cut just before the 2014 season. Connolly became his replacement, but the 33-year-old earned the worst offensive grade on the team from Pro Football Focus. He's versatile, but he'll be 34 before the Pats open up the 2015 season on Sept. 10.
The Patriots don't draft guards or centers early (they haven't selected an interior lineman in the first, second or third round since taking Mankins 32nd overall in 2005), so either that should change this year or they should look to bring in a starting-caliber impending free agent such as Mike Iupati, Orlando Franklin or Clint Boling.
They could also bolster a run defense that sometimes looked vulnerable down the stretch, particularly against the Packers, Jets, Ravens and Seahawks. Wilfork had a bounceback season at defensive tackle but he'll be 34 this year, and Sealver Siliga might not be a starting-caliber nose tackle.
The front seven could get a natural boost if two-time Pro Bowl linebacker Jerod Mayo can return to form after missing all but 12 games the past two seasons due to injury, but that's a large "if" and Mayo -- who carries a $10.6 million cap number entering 2015 -- could be a cap casualty in order to raise money for help in other areas.
| Teams projected to be over cap | |
| Team | Space |
| Rams | -$1.1M |
| Steelers | -$1.5M |
| Chiefs | -$2.0M |
| Patriots | -$4.5M |
| Cardinals | -$10.1M |
| Saints | -$23.0M |
Hitting on their early draft picks would be ideal, as they did with Wilfork in 2004. But nothing's guaranteed there. That's why they'll have to do some wheeling and dealing, which may require some creativity with contracts already in place. Per Over the Cap, the Pats are currently one of six teams in the red when it comes to projected salary cap space.
2. Retain Revis and McCourty: The secondary is actually New England's strongest position, and it's not even close.
Opposing quarterbacks completed just 59.6 percent of their passes against New England and had an average passer rating of just 84.0 (both numbers ranked in the top 10 this season). That's especially good for a team that had a subpar sack rate of 6.5.
The Pats weren't dominant in 2014. They lost a quarter of their regular-season games and survived by the skin of their teeth in two of their three postseason affairs. So they cannot afford to take a step or two backwards in the secondary.
Super Bowl teams almost always take hits in free agency, with vultures paying premium dollars to second- or third-rate Super Bowl-winning players in an attempt to capture some of that Lombardi magic. It happened last year when the Seahawks lost Golden Tate, Walter Thurmond and Chris Clemons, two years ago when the Baltimore Ravens lost Dannell Ellerbe, Paul Kruger and Cary Williams, and four years ago when the Green Bay Packers lost Cullen Jenkins, Daryn Colledge and Atari Bigby.
Those losses might not seem crushing, but the reality is the Seahawks might be two-time Super Bowl champions right now had Tate still been on the roster for Sunday's game against New England.
It'll likely happen to the Pats, too, especially considering their cap quandary. They'll lose guys, but Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty, both of whom are on the brink of free agency, can't be part of it.
Revis and McCourty were graded by PFF as the third- and fourth-best defenders on the New England roster. The 29-year-old Revis earned his first All-Pro nod since 2011 after providing blanket coverage against No. 1 receivers all season. He allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 51.9 percent of their passes against him during the regular season and surrendered just three completions for a total of 25 yards in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, McCourty provided top-notch over-the-top coverage as one of the best free safeties in the league. The two-time All-Pro didn't get any all-star love, but he allowed just one completion for 17 yards on six pass attempts in coverage during the playoffs. And at 27, the converted cornerback is just entering his prime.
The key is all of that success these guys had in January (and February). The No. 1 reason the Pats are Super Bowl champions right now is the phenomenal coverage they had throughout the night against Seattle.
Coverage on a play like this, which resulted in a sack:
And this, which resulted in another:
Again, this won't be an easy task. McCourty is young and versatile and will attract a ton of attention on the open market. They can still keep Revis with a $25 million cap hit by picking up a $20 million team option for 2015, but that would handcuff them elsewhere. Ideally, they'll strike long-term deals with both players before free agency arrives March 10.
So let Connolly go, and let fellow free-agents-to-be Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley and Chris White walk. Say goodbye to Jonathan Casillas and Akeem Ayers if necessary. You can win the Super Bowl without those guys, but you'll have a lot more trouble repeating if Revis and McCourty aren't on the roster come training camp.
3. Get lucky: When it comes to injuries and the schedule, you need a hell of a lot of luck to win one Super Bowl, let alone two in as many years.
The only real key cogs the Patriots lost to injured reserve in 2014 were Mayo and defensive back Alfonzo Dennard, but they're used to life without Mayo and Logan Ryan and Brandon Browner replaced Dennard quite easily.
The offensive line also took some hits early, but both tackles remained in place throughout the season. If Nate Solder or Sebastian Vollmer were to go down, Brady would be in big trouble. And of course, they can't afford to lose guys like Revis and tight end Rob Gronkowski, both of whom have had issues with injuries in recent seasons.
Plus, at 37, Brady's no spring chicken. If he were to win the Super Bowl next season, he would be only 29 days younger than John Elway was when he became the oldest quarterback ever to do so after the 1998 season. They need Brady to hold up.
Their 2015 opponents went 122-134 in 2014, so it looks like a fairly friendly schedule. But we've been fooled before when sizing up schedules in February.
Point is, a lot of what happens to New England next season is out of the team's hands. So yeah, good luck.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007. You can also read his work at Bleacher Report, Awful Announcing and This Given Sunday. In order to sound more professional, he wrote this blurb in the third person. Follow him on Twitter. Or don't. It's entirely your choice.
