Getty Images

If we learned one thing from Week 10, it's that the NFL playoff picture can be turned upside down in an instant. 

Going into Week 10, the Bills and Bengals were both squarely in the playoff picture, but with both teams losing, they're now on the outside looking in. Also, injuries can have a huge impact on the playoff race, which the Browns found out the hard way on Wednesday when they lost Deshaun Watson to a season-ending shoulder injury

So what does all of that mean for the playoff race? That's what we're going to answer right now in this week's playoff projection. The projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the 2023 NFL season, and using those numbers, we're going to let you know the playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 14-team playoff field. 

With that in mind, let's get to this week's playoff projections.

AFC playoff projection

1. (AFC West Champion)
Even though they were on a bye in Week 10, the Chiefs' (7-2) chances of earning the top seed actually improved. With the Ravens losing, the computer is projecting that Kansas City will finish a full game ahead of Baltimore in the race for the top seed. The Chiefs are also being given a 39.25% chance of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl, which is more than double the next best team (The Ravens are at 16.69%). 
2. (AFC North Champion)
After the Browns beat the Ravens in Week 10, the computer was projecting that the battle for the AFC North title would go down to the wire with the Ravens being given a 41.7% chance of winning the division while the Browns were right behind them at 32%. However, with Deshaun Watson now out for the season, the computer thinks that the Ravens are going to run away with the division crown. The injury news boosted Baltimore's chances of winning the AFC North to 50.1% while dropping the Browns' chances to 15.3%. 
3. (AFC East Champion)
Following the Bills' loss on Monday night, the computer is now loving the Dolphins' (6-3) chances of winning the AFC East. SportsLine is giving Miami a 83.9% chance of winning the division. The biggest thing working in the Dolphins' favor is that six of their final eight games will be played against teams that are currently at .500 or below. 
4. (AFC South Champion)
Don't look now, but the the Texans are suddenly breathing down Jacksonville's neck. The Jaguars (6-3) currently have a 51.4% chance of winning the AFC South, but the Texans are right behind them. According to SportsLine, Houston has a 41.9% chance of winning the division, which means the AFC South is now a two-horse race.  
5. Wild Card 1
The Texans (5-4) pulled off one of the biggest upsets of Week 10 when they beat the Bengals, and that win came with a huge reward: The computer now thinks that Houston is going to make the playoffs. According to SportsLine, the Texans have a 65.6% of making the postseason, and if they to make it, it will be their first trip to the playoffs since 2019. The Texans were projected to be the sixth seed, but they got bumped up to five after the Deshaun Watson injury. 
6. Wild Card 2
This week's projection comes with good news and bad news for the Browns (6-3). The good news is that the computer still expects them to make the playoffs, despite the loss of Deshaun Watson. The bad news is that that they're now hanging on by a thread. Before the Watson injury, the computer projected the Browns to finish with the fifth seed and to battle the Ravens for the AFC North title, but with Watson out, the Browns are now projected to get the sixth seed, but it will be a dog fight to make that happen. The Browns will be battling the Steelers and Bengals, who are projected to finish right behind them, which means the Browns won't have any margin for error over their final eight games.  
7. Wild Card 3
With the Bills and Bengals both losing in Week 10, the biggest winner was the Steelers. The computer is projecting that the Steelers will steal the final wild-card spot in the AFC from the Bengals. According to SportsLine, the Steelers and Bengals will finish with the same record, but Pittsburgh will get in thanks to a tiebreaker (The Steelers currently hold the divisional and conference record tiebreakers over the Bengals, so as long as they split the season series with Cincinnati, they will almost certainly win any tiebreaker). The Steelers could end up benefitting from the Deshaun Watson injury and that's mostly because they play the Browns this week. Although the Steelers are being projected to get the seventh seed, the computer thinks it's very possible that they overtake the Browns for the sixth seed. 

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Bengals (48.6%), Chargers (28%), Bills (20.7%), Colts (14.6%), Jets (7.7%), Raiders (7.4%), Broncos (6.9%),  Titans (3.5%), Patriots (0.1%).

NFC playoff projection

1. (NFC East Champion)
The Eagles (8-1) are being projected to get the top seed in the NFC, but that doesn't mean the computer loves them to get to the Super Bowl. Right now, the Eagles are being given a 31.9% of winning the conference title, but the 49ers are right behind them with the computer giving San Francisco a 29.02% chance of winning the NFC. The computer views the Eagles and Chiefs as the two most likely teams to win it all, which we're only pointing out because those two teams will be playing each other this week. 
2. (NFC North Champion)
Although the Lions (7-2) only hold a two-game lead over the Vikings in the NFC North, the computer doesn't think there's going to be much of a division race. According to SportsLine, the Lions have an 81.3% chance of winning the division. That being said, the computer does NOT like the Lions' chances of winning the Super Bowl with Detroit getting the fourth-best odds in the NFC behind the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys.  
3. (NFC West Champion)
With the 49ers (6-3) sitting two games behind the Eagles in the race for the top seed, the computer doesn't really like San Francisco's chances of catching Philadelphia. However, the computer does love the 49ers' chances of winning the Super Bowl. According to SportsLine, the 49ers have a 17.94% chance, which is the second best in the NFL, trailing only the Chiefs. 
4. (NFC South Champion)
Heading into Week 11, there are three teams that are only separated by one game at the top of the NFC South with the Saints currently on top. According to SportsLine, the Saints (5-5) have a 56% chance of taking home the title. The Buccaneers are right behind them at 31.8% and then you have the Falcons, who are being given just a 12.2% chance of winning the division.   
5. Wild Card 1
The Cowboys (6-3) keep winning, but they're not moving up in the playoff standings because the computer doesn't think they're going to catch the Eagles for the division title. Instead, the computer is projecting that the Cowboys are going to end up with the fifth seed for the second straight year. 
6. Wild Card 2
After watching Seattle beat the Commanders in Week 10, the computer views the Seahawks as a virtual lock to make the playoffs. According to SportsLine, the Seahawks (6-3) have an 85.6% chance of making the postseason. That being said, the computer doesn't think Seattle will top the 49ers for the NFC West title with the Seahawks only being given a 20.2% chance of winning the division. 
7. Wild Card 3
There are still eight weeks to play in the season, but despite that, the computer is already feeling pretty confident that the NFC playoff field is set. The computer doesn't think that anyone is going to catch the Vikings (6-4) for the final wild-card spot. The Vikings are being given a 74.1% chance of making the playoffs, which is WAY ahead of any other wild-card contender. The next closest is the Buccaneers, who have a 43.3% chance of getting in. 

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Buccaneers (43.3%), Falcons (16.2%), Packers (9.9%), Rams (8.7%), Commanders (5.2%), Bears (0.6%), Panthers (0.1%), Giants (0.1%), Cardinals (0.0%). 

Note: The Cardinals aren't technically eliminated from playoff contention, but their chances are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them. 

Wild-card round projection


(7) Steelers at (2) Ravens
(6) Browns at (3) Dolphins
(5) Texans at (4) Jaguars

Bye: Chiefs


(7) Vikings at (2) Lions
(6) Seahawks at (3) 49ers
(5) Cowboys at (4) Saints

Bye: Eagles