Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs hit the road for an intriguing test in Week 4. The Chiefs will visit MetLife Stadium to take on the scuffling New York Jets on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City is 2-1 this season following back-to-back wins, and the Chiefs were dominant in a Week 3 win over the Chicago Bears. New York is on a two-game losing streak after a Week 1 win over Buffalo, with the team's offense flailing following the loss of Aaron Rodgers (Achilles). Rodgers and Taylor Swift are among the stars expected to be in attendance tonight to watch Sunday Night Football. 

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET. For this game, the SportsLine consensus lists Kansas City as an 8-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 41.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. Jets odds. Before making any Jets vs. Chiefs picks or NFL predictions, you need to see the NFL betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Chiefs vs. Jets and locked in another confident against-the-spread pick. You can see the model's pick only at SportsLine. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Jets vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Jets spread: Chiefs -8
  • Chiefs vs. Jets over/under: 41.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Jets money line: Chiefs -403, Jets +314
  • KC: Chiefs are 8-11-1 against the spread in the last 20 games
  • NYJ: Jets are 9-11 against the spread in the last 20 games
  • Chiefs vs. Jets picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Chiefs vs. Jets live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City has its own strengths, but the Chiefs should also benefit from the glaring offensive challenges of New York. The Jets currently rank dead-last in the NFL in points per game (14.0), total yards per game (225.0), first downs (37), passing yards (401), and third-down efficiency (21.6%) this season. New York's issues center on quarterback Zach Wilson, who has the lowest passer rating in the NFL in three straight seasons, and the Chiefs also deploy a potent defense. Kansas City is in the top five of the NFL in points allowed per game (13.3), points allowed per drive (1.03), scoring percentage allowed (21.9%), and yards per play allowed (4.6) this season. 

The Chiefs are also No. 6 in the league in total defense and passing defense, with elite marks in third-down efficiency allowed (30.8%) and red zone efficiency allowed (37.5%). Kansas City has given up only two passing touchdowns this season and, with the Chiefs potentially able to load up against the run, the formula is strong. Opponents are averaging only 102.7 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry against Kansas City, with All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones providing quality resistance in the middle. See which team to pick here.

Why the Jets can cover

New York's offense has been uneven over the first three weeks, but young skill players lead the way for a potentially dangerous group. Running back Breece Hall is averaging 5.9 yards per carry in 2023, and he put up 5.8 yards per carry and 97.2 yards from scrimmage per game as a rookie in 2022. On the outside, wide receiver Garrett Wilson won the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year award with 83 catches for 1,103 yards, and he has touchdown grabs already in 2023. 

From there, the Jets have a talented and stout defense that finished in the top four of the NFL in scoring defense, total defense, and passing defense last season. In 2023, New York is giving up only 20.3 points per game and 1.61 points per drive, with the Jets giving up only 4.8 yards per play and 3.7 yards per carry. The Jets have yet to give up a rushing touchdown this season, and opponents have converted only 37.5% of red zone trips into touchdowns. See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Jets picks

Now, the model has broken down Jets vs. Chiefs from every angle. The model is leaning Over the point total, projecting the two teams to combine for 42 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine

So who wins Jets vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jets vs. Chiefs spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.