The Cincinnati Bengals can make the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history if they can beat the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. The matchup is a rematch of last year's AFC title game in which the Bengals rallied from a three-score deficit to win 27-24 in overtime and reach the Super Bowl for the first time in 34 years. They fell 23-20 to the Los Angeles Rams and are still in search of their first Super Bowl victory in franchise history. The Chiefs last reached Super Bowl 55 two seasons ago but lost 31-9 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Chiefs vs. Bengals odds from Caesars Sportsbook and the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Before locking in any Bengals vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. He entered the 2022 NFL season 427-344 all-time on NFL side picks (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS and 8-3 on money-line plays last season for a profit of $1,552.

What's more, Hartstein also is 29-16 on his last 45 against-the-spread picks involving the Bengals or Chiefs, meaning he's uniquely qualified to make this pick. Anyone who has consistently followed him has seen massive returns.

Now, Hartstein has zeroed in on Bengals vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game 2023 from every angle and revealed his NFL expert picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bengals vs. Chiefs:

  • Bengals vs. Chiefs point spread: Chiefs -1.5
  • Bengals vs. Chiefs over/under: 47.5 points 
  • Bengals vs. Chiefs money line: Bengals +105, Chiefs -125 
  • CIN: The Bengals are 5-1-1 against the spread in their past seven postseason games 
  • KC: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this rivalry 
  • Bengals vs. Chiefs picks: See picks here
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Why the Bengals can cover

The Bengals entered the NFL playoffs as arguably the league's hottest team, and they head to the AFC Championship Game winners of 10 straight. Their playoff form is reminiscent of last year's Super Bowl run and they are coming off arguably their most complete performance of the season. Amid the heavy snowfall and swirling winds of Buffalo, the Bengals took the opening kickoff and quarterback Joe Burrow led a six-play, 79-yard drive that resulted in a 28-yard touchdown pass to Ja'Marr Chase. Following a defensive stop, they went 72 yards on 10 plays, capped by a 15-yard touchdown pass from Burrow to tight end Hayden Hurst.

By the end of the first quarter, Cincinnati had taken the soul out of the boisterous Buffalo crowd and control of the game with a 14-0 lead. The Bengals never trailed, and the victory marked their third consecutive road playoff win over the past two seasons. They won't be intimidated by the elements or crowd at Arrowhead Stadium, seeing as the Bengals won there in last year's AFC title game and have won three straight meetings against the Chiefs. See which team to pick here.

Why the Chiefs can cover 

As it has in recent postseasons, Kansas City's special teams unit has come up big when it matters most. Its performance was even more crucial last week because, with Mahomes ailing, the Chiefs implemented a more conservative game plan in the second half and relied on their kicking specialists to come through. Kicker Harrison Butker answered the call, converting two field goals that were both 50 yards in length. He became the eighth kicker in NFL history to make two field goals of 50 yards or longer in a postseason game. The veteran also connected on all three of his point-after attempts.

Punter Tommy Townsend also delivered in the clutch. He was counted on to flip field position numerous times in the second half when the Chiefs eschewed their penchant for going for it on fourth downs and instead took the cautious route. Townsend averaged 50.8 yards on four punts and settled two of them inside Jacksonville's 20-yard line. The third-year pro also drilled a 60-yard punt to flip field position in the third quarter. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bengals vs. Chiefs picks 

Now, Hartstein has broken down Bengals vs. Chiefs from every angle. We can tell you that he's leaning Under the point total, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He's found a critical X-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back on Sunday. You can only see his 2023 AFC Championship game pick and analysis at SportsLine.

So who wins Bengals vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game 2023? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bengals vs. Chiefs spread you should jump on Sunday, all from the expert who is 29-16 on against the spread picks involving the Bengals or Chiefs, and find out.