There isn't a contemporary NFL quarterback rivalry quite like Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes. While the MVP-level signal-callers don't play in the same division, they've made a habit of meeting in high-stakes contests. Accordingly, Sunday evening they'll square off in their fourth career playoff showdown.
Allen's Buffalo Bills and Mahomes' Kansas City Chiefs have different strengths as they vie for a spot in Super Bowl LIX. And postseason glory is about team success as much as under-center production.
Which of the two heralded quarterbacks is best positioned to advance, however? We've studied the tape and the numbers to break down which big-time playmaker has the edge going into the AFC Championship:
The overview: Allen vs. Mahomes
QB | Record | TDs | INTs | Comp. % | YPA | Rating | Rush Yards | Rush TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Allen | 13-4 | 28 | 6 | 63.6 | 7.7 | 101.4 | 531 | 12 |
Patrick Mahomes | 15-1 | 26 | 11 | 67.5 | 6.8 | 93.5 | 307 | 2 |
While Allen wasn't nearly as prolific as, say, Baltimore Ravens star Lamar Jackson in the MVP race, there's a reason he's drawn plenty of support for the NFL's top individual honor: Not only has the Bills' leader remained dynamic as a dual threat, ranking second only to Jalen Hurts in rushing scores, but he's significantly cut down on untimely turnovers, enjoying his most efficient run since 2020, when -- not coincidentally -- he also led Buffalo to an AFC Championship clash against the Chiefs.
Mahomes has been a more curious case. For the second straight season, his numbers have been far more solid than spectacular, and the first half of 2024 was particularly rough; he had just eight touchdowns to nine interceptions through Kansas City's first seven games. Yet his 15-1 record as Chiefs starter this season speaks to his unmatched -- and largely unquantified -- crunch-time reliability. A master of last-gasp improvisation, he's been the sneakily sturdy shepherd of a defensive juggernaut.
Here's how the two quarterbacks have fared this postseason:
QB | Record | TDs | INTs | Comp. % | YPA | Rating | Rush Yards | Rush TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Allen | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | 75.0 | 8.3 | 113.1 | 66 | 2 |
Patrick Mahomes | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | 64.0 | 7.1 | 98.2 | 14 | 0 |
What can these numbers -- and other advanced statistics -- tell us in addition to the eye test? What lies beneath the surface? Let's proceed.
Note: Advanced statistics referenced below are courtesy of NFL Pro.
Accuracy
Mahomes began his career as a big-play extraordinaire, launching one deep shot after another. Since 2023, he's become much more of a methodical passer, if not aesthetically than statistically. It shows in his 2024 marks: His 67.3% completion rate (regular and postseason) is a career high, and he's averaging just 6.3 air yards per attempt, the lowest mark of his career and the third lowest among all quarterbacks this season. Allen has been more efficient in his two postseason contests this January, but on the whole this season, Mahomes has specialized in taking what's given.
Edge: Mahomes
Ball control
Historically, Allen has been a riskier thrower, leaning on his supercharged arm to sling the ball basically anywhere on the field. This year, he's really cut down on his tendency to force passes, and/or risk losing the rock with bulldozing runs. In fact, Mahomes has 11 turnovers to Allen's eight in 2024, and the quarterbacks have a near-dead-even turnover rate in the playoffs, averaging just one giveaway roughly every two games over the course of their respective postseason careers. The only real way to break their tie is to expand the sample size, in which case Mahomes has protected the ball slightly better, totaling 40 turnovers to Allen's 42 since the start of the 2022 season.
Edge: Mahomes

Big-play magic
Mahomes used to own this category; remember his 50-touchdown debut as the Chiefs' full-timer? Lately, however, this hasn't been Mahomes' game at all. Andy Reid's signal-caller is throwing it deep just 4.5% of the time -- easily the lowest mark of his career, but continuing a multiyear downward trend -- whereas Allen has almost doubled that number (13.8%) despite operating with a remade wide receiver corps. Since 2018, Mahomes' first year as a starter, Allen also leads all quarterbacks in total touchdowns (262).
Edge: Allen
Rushing impact
The plain numbers bear this one out pretty clearly: Allen offers more on the ground, taking off more than twice as often as Mahomes. He's a tough tackle at almost 240 pounds in the open field. This doesn't mean Mahomes is a non-factor with his legs; in fact, his own numbers are a bit deceptive, not fully accounting for his knack for killer late-game scrambles. But Allen's athleticism has also paid off in and around the pocket, where he's taken just 16 sacks to Mahomes' 39 despite facing more pressure this season.
Edge: Allen
Situational poise
Both quarterbacks predictably excel against the blitz, capitalizing on undermanned coverages with better passer ratings. They've functioned a bit differently depending on the scoreboard, however. Allen is no slouch when trailing, throwing 10 touchdowns to just one pick while trying to overcome a deficit, but Mahomes' best overall marks come when the Chiefs are tied or trailing, as reinforced by his NFL-leading five fourth-quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives. No. 15 remains the king of crunch time.
Edge: Mahomes
Home vs. road splits
Mahomes has operated similarly whether on the road or on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, with roaring Chiefs Kingdom behind him. Allen, meanwhile, has experienced a dip in aerial production when he's away from Highmark Field in Orchard Park, New York. To be clear, his numbers aren't bad on the road; he's still thrown 11 touchdowns to three picks in away contests. But he's also gone 5-4 away from home as opposed to 8-0 in Buffalo, barely hitting 60% of his throws in enemy territory.
Edge: Mahomes
Head-to-head history
You wouldn't believe how similar these quarterbacks are in terms of career production: They've played almost exactly the same number of games (111 for Allen, plus 12 playoff games; 112 for Mahomes, plus 19) and scored almost exactly the same number of touchdowns (Mahomes 259, Allen 262). Their face-to-face matchups have really just come down to the magnitude of the stage: Allen is 4-1 against Mahomes in the regular season, while Mahomes is 3-0 in the playoffs. Their numbers also fluctuate depending on the scenery: In the regular season, Mahomes is quite mediocre against the Bills, with 13 touchdowns to seven picks and a 6.6 yards-per-attempt mark, whereas he's darn near flawless against Buffalo in the postseason, completing 75.2% of his throws with eight scores, zero picks and a 126.6 rating. In this case, the height of the competition truly seems to bring out the best in the Chiefs' quarterback.
Edge: Mahomes, for this game
The final verdict
The tally from our seven categories is as follows:
- Patrick Mahomes (5)
- Josh Allen (2)
It's funny how the postseason resets expectations, isn't it? By almost every measure, Allen has been the better quarterback in 2024, offering the Bills a bona fide playmaker and ball protector to elevate a rotating cast of supporting characters. And yet, as he prepares to enter Arrowhead, Mahomes registers as the more trustworthy option in decisive fashion. You could certainly argue that big-play magic matters more in this spot than, say, a single head-to-head record, given that this version of Allen is managing the ball much better than the Allens of years past. But much like Tom Brady during his New England Patriots heyday, Mahomes' sheer late-game willpower and decision-making is simply too vaunted to ignore.