NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on -- it's a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. For years now I've written up the win totals for CBS Sports, so it's wild to me we now get them in mid-to-late March; we've always had to grind our way through May to get them released.
Caesars Sportsbook dropped win totals for every single NFL team recently, so let's break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here (if no link, it's coming soon so check back):
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we dive into the AFC North, a couple quick notes. One, we're picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, if you like an over that's reasonably high, don't bet it now, because injuries are random. Four, I'm picking these as of March 30, so I'll lean more unders based on injuries.
Let's get to it.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals
Over 11.5 (+105) / Under 11.5 (-125)
The Bengals are looking to win the AFC North for the third-straight season ... for the first time in franchise history. That says a lot about Cincy (but also about Pittsburgh and Baltimore if we're being fair). What says even more is the team total for Joe Burrow and Co. at this point of the offseason, with Cincy checking in at a VERY robust 11.5 Over/Under for their win total. The Bengals suffered some personnel losses this offseason, with both Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell departing in free agency. Dax Hill looks like a developing young replacement and Michael Thomas was re-signed; add in the massive, massive addition of free agent left tackle Orlando Brown and the Bengals may very well have come out on top in the attrition game, even after making two straight AFC title games. Brown should significantly improve Burrow's protection, which could lead to Burrow staying upright and should result in everyone feeling better about his health and ability to push the ball down the field. There's too much quarterback uncertainty for the other three teams in this division for me not to like the Over at plus money, even with a first-place schedule lingering. I would NOT advise betting it right now -- an April 11.5 win total is more likely to go down than up, although a Lamar Jackson trade or lengthy holdout could potentially shift the juice.
Pick: Bengals OVER 11.5 wins (+105)
Cleveland Browns
Over 8.5 (-175) / Under 8.5 (+145)
Some outrageous juice on this win total for the Over and it's probably schedule related: the AFC North draws the NFC West and the AFC South as cross-divisional matchups and that by itself could end up looking like 5-6 wins if Cleveland is a good football team. My concern with the Over here is 1) that's way too much juice to lay for nine wins, even in a 17-game season; and 2) Deshaun Watson's ability to get back to his previous level of performance. Watson's skillset is undeniable and he improved over a few games last year, but we haven't seen any real consistent, sustained success from him in several years. The offense has plenty of firepower but will Watson fit into what Kevin Stefanski wants to do (he's run the ball aggressively in the past). Defensively, Jim Schwartz might help cover up some flaws with an aggressive scheme and there's talent on that side of the ball as well. You simply cannot lay -175 in April for a win total without seeing the schedule and knowing what injuries could pop up between now and then, so I'm going under here. Certainly the Browns profile as a bounce-back team however.
Pick: Browns UNDER 8.5 (+145)
Baltimore Ravens
Over 8.5 (-120) / Under (+105)
Deciding whether to go over or under on the Ravens in 2023 -- at this point in time of the offseason -- boils down to one very simple thing: do you believe Lamar Jackson will start for Baltimore in Week 1? If you do, the Over is probably a pretty good look. The passing game doesn't profile as "elite" per se, but I trust Todd Monken to fashion a stout offense around Lamar, the run game and some explosive passing plays. Defensively they've got enough on that side of the ball to be dangerous if some pass rushers develop. If you believe Lamar is going to play, the Ravens over is too cheap. If you think Lamar is gone or holds out, the Ravens under is too cheap. Good luck predicting what will happen but if you have a strong hunch either way, now is a decent time to take a stab. For now given Lamar's position and the plus money I'll lean under.
Pick: Ravens UNDER 8.5 (+105)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 8.5 (-115) / Under 8.5 (-105)
This Steelers team is one of the most interesting evaluations of the upcoming season. Mike Tomlin simply doesn't have losing seasons. It's a cliche at this point to a small degree, but he navigates his way as well as anyone with less than ideal circumstances. Kenny Pickett isn't an upside machine, but what if he's good in his second year? No Matt Canada would help, but, again, less than ideal circumstances. The defense needs a bounceback year as well, but there's a nice mix of elite upside (T.J. Watt) and veteran stability (Cam Heyward, Patrick Peterson -- shoutout to the All Things Covered pod!) where you can see it working. One of the unsold things for Pittsburgh, Cincy and Cleveland is the Lamar situation too -- if he's traded, it would dramatically shift things. I'll buy Tomlin's floor of eight games here at a cheap price.
Pick: Steelers OVER 8.5 (-115)
