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USATSI

Last week I wrote about how I wasn't enjoying Netflix's golf documentary series, "Full Swing." Well, things have changed. At the time, I'd only watched the first three episodes that focused on Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka and Ian Poulter. The entire series turns on its head with the fourth episode, which focuses on Joel Dahmen.

As I wrote about the first three episodes, I found it difficult to relate to the "problems" or "adversity" any of the primary golfers experienced in the first few episodes. But the Dahmen episode was the first to feature a player I could relate with. Things only improved from there as the show focused on other golfers like Tony Finau, Mito Pereira, Sahith Theegala and Matt Fitzpatrick. There were also more prominent names like Dustin Johnson and Collin Morikawa, and the final episode focuses on Rory McIlroy, but the stories were so much stronger over the back half of the season.

If I'm going to give any advice to the people behind the series, keep going in that direction for the next season. As for the rest of you, I suggest reading these stories.

Let's stay hot this weekend.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

Nets at Celtics, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN

  • Key Trend: The Celtics are 1-3 ATS in their last four.
  • The Pick: Nets +11 (-110)

I can only imagine how thrilled ESPN is to have this game as part of their doubleheader tonight. The Celtics have fallen from the top spot in the East, but not because of anything they've done. It's that the Milwaukee Bucks haven't lost since Jan. 21, winning 16 straight and 18 of 19 to pass Boston in the standings. Over their last five games, Boston has a net efficiency of 2.6, which ranks 12th in the league.

And Brooklyn? Well, there's no universe in existence where you can argue losing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving improves the on-court product. Still, even with as bad as they've played (they rank 29th in net efficiency since the Durant trade), this spread is giving Boston a little too much credit.

That's not to say Boston isn't capable of running away with the game tonight, but the Celtics have come off a tough stretch of games against the 76ers, Knicks and Cavaliers. Three teams they could face in the postseason. After tonight's game, the Celtics will play the Knicks and Cavs again. It's not crazy to think the Celtics could relax a bit against a Nets team they should beat with ease.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model agrees with me on the spread tonight, but it sees far more value on the total.


💰The Picks

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Getty Sports

🏀 College Basketball

East Carolina at Tulane, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN+

The Pick: Under 156 (-110) -- I know why this total is so high. Tulane moves at a lightning-fast pace with a ton of possessions. However, these two teams played two days ago. East Carolina won, 83-68, so quick math tells us that's 151 points. That's under this total, but more importantly, when teams play back-to-backs, you don't tend to see more points scored in the second meeting. There's a certain familiarity with what a team will try against you when you just saw them try it.

That makes tonight's under more appealing, as does the fact that Wednesday night's loss was Tulane's third straight defeat. Tulane has averaged 1.047 points per possession the season, but scored only 0.911 in the last three. They're struggling to score, and while East Carolina's offense is abysmal, its defense has at least been passable in conference play. Everything about this situation leads me to believe we won't get a high-scoring affair tonight.

⚽ Soccer

Southampton vs. Leicester City, Saturday, 12:30 p.m. | TV: NBC
The Pick: Southampton (+170) -- 
I was very angry with myself earlier this week. I considered taking a punt on Grimsby Town to beat Southampton in the FA Cup because I figured Southampton had far bigger fish to fry (you know, the whole not getting relegated thing) than the FA Cup and could punt on the match. Then I "thought better of it" because even Southampton at half-speed should beat a League Two team (a team in 16th place in League Two at that!). Whoops.

Now I'm reduced to hoping to take advantage of a market overreaction to Southampton's price in this match. It's easy to forget that Leicester remains in relegation danger and lost an FA Cup match to Blackburn Rovers during the week. Leicester has lost three straight matches and looked very poor defensively in the process. Leicester has been poor defensively away from home all season, and Southampton has been a lot more difficult to break down at home (even if the results don't reflect it). Maybe you want to bet Leicester City as a favorite on the road, but I don't.

Liverpool vs. Manchester United, Sunday, 11:30 a.m. | TV: USA
The Pick: Liverpool (+140) -- 
Manchester United enters the weekend having won 16 of its 20 matches since returning from the World Cup break, with three draws and only one loss. It's been a remarkable run, but one thing rarely mentioned about the run is 14 of those 20 matches have been played at home at Old Trafford. Two draws and the lone loss came in one of the six road matches. In Premier League play, United has been much worse on the road. It has an expected goal (xG) differential of +11.1 at home and -0.7 away from it.

Then there's Liverpool, a team that's impossible to predict from match to match but a team that, like United, has been far better at home in the Premier League than the road. It has an xG differential of +11.3 at Anfield compared to -0.9 away from it. Also, while Real Madrid systematically dismantled Liverpool at Anfield in the Champions League last week, Liverpool's played much better overall in the Premier League. You may wonder why Liverpool is slightly favored in this match, considering how the seasons have gone for both clubs. Perhaps now you better understand why that is and why there's so much value on Liverpool at this price.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Projection Model has an A-graded play available for the Western Conference showdown between the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies.