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The Denver Nuggets (14-9) host the Dallas Mavericks (12-11) in a Western Conference bout on Tuesday night. This is the third matchup of the year between these teams, with each club securing a win. Denver owns an 11-12 record against the spread. Meanwhile, Dallas is a league-worst 7-15-1 against the spread in 2022. Peyton Watson (right hamstring strain) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (wrist) are questionable, while Michael Porter Jr., Collin Gillespie, and Jeff Green are out for Denver. 

Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET in Denver. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Nuggets as a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Mavericks vs. Nuggets odds and the over/under for total points scored is set at 222.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer simulation model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 111-70 roll on all top-rated NBA picks that dates back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavericks vs. Nuggets:

  • Mavericks vs. Nuggets spread: Denver -4.5 
  • Mavericks vs. Nuggets Over-Under: 222.5 points  
  • Mavericks vs. Nuggets money line: Denver -190, Dallas +158 
  • DAL: Over is 7-1 in Mavericks' last 8 games playing on 0 days rest 
  • DEN: Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points 
  • Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks: See picks here
Featured Game | Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks

Why the Nuggets can cover

Guard Jamal Murray is an instinctive and quick playmaker. Murray can carry the team in spurts as a scorer or facilitator. The Kentucky product excels at shooting from downtown while being able to really push the pace in transition. Murray is averaging 17.9 points and 4.9 assists while shooting 38% from downtown. He's dropped 20-plus points with at least two 3-pointers in four of his last five games. 

Forward Aaron Gordon is very athletic and versatile in the frontcourt. Gordon is very energetic and explosive which allows him to soar above the rim. The Arizona product constantly cuts to the rim and is able to defend both the three and four. Gordon logs 16.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. In his previous outing, he had 19 points and eight boards.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Guard Luka Doncic does everything on the floor for this ball club. Doncic owns outstanding court vision and is able to thread the needle. He's fourth in the league in assists (8.5), logging 10-plus in three of his last five games. The three-time All-Star can create his shot from anywhere on the court with ease. Additionally, Doncic leads the NBA with 33.4 points per game. On Monday, he finished with 33 points, six boards, and eight assists.

Forward Tim Hardaway Jr. is an excellent shooting option from the perimeter. Hardaway Jr. shoots 35% from downtown and makes 2.7 3-pointers per game. The Michigan product is athletic and does an excellent job at filling the lane. The 30-year-old averages 12.6 points per game but has scored 20-plus in three of his last four games. On Saturday, Hardaway Jr. dropped 28 points, seven rebounds, and went 8-of-13 from deep.

How to make Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 233 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's Nuggets vs. Mavs pick at SportsLine

So who wins Mavericks vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.