NBA basketball is officially here! After four long, hoops-free months, we have finally arrived at the beginning of the 2022-23 season, and, boy, is the league starting things off with a bang. In one corner, we have one of the Eastern Conference's oldest rivalries: the defending Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics and the trendy conference sleeper Philadelphia 76ers. The nightcap pits four-time NBA champion LeBron James against newly-minted four-time NBA champion Stephen Curry.
As excited as we all are to have basketball back, a new season brings new opportunities for profit. So let's dive into Tuesday night's slate and decide on our best bets for the opening night of the 2022-23 NBA season.
All lines via Caesars Sportsbook.
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
This is a tricky pick. Al Horford has famously defended Joel Embiid extremely well over the years. The Celtics are 8-3 straight up and 6-4-1 against the spread against Embiid in games Horford has played for them, as tracked by The Action Network. Betting on Philadelphia also means absorbing a fair degree of uncertainty. We don't really know how older players like James Harden and P.J. Tucker are going to look. Most of Boston's roster is still in its prime.
Yet I'm still leaning toward Philadelphia for a few reasons. The absence of Robert Williams III leaves Boston painfully thin up front. Even if Horford can match Embiid minute-for-minute, Montrezl Harrell should feast against Boston's backups, and the combination of Harden and Embiid is so good at getting opposing big men into foul trouble that Boston might have to go its bench more than it expects to. The Celtics are also at their best defensively when they're switching. Embiid is essentially switch-proof, with only a select group of big men capable of comfortably dealing with him.
And, of course, Boston has plenty of uncertainty of its own deal with. This will be Joe Mazzulla's head-coaching debut. Remember, the Celtics were a No. 7 seed with most of this roster when Brad Stevens coached it in 2021. Ime Udoka was extremely important to this team's revival last season. Moving forward without him is going to be an adjustment. So I'm taking Philly and the points here. The pick: 76ers +3
This matchup will be far lower scoring if these teams meet in the playoffs. For now? I'm backing the offenses. Boston's defense is vulnerable without Williams. Vegas hasn't adjusted yet for how the league's adjusted transition take-foul rule will boost scoring, but Philadelphia, as the best team in the league at generating steals, should benefit greatly. Harden has also fared quite well against Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, with a 15-4 head-to-head record and a scoring average just shy of 29 points against him. For those reasons, I'd lean toward the over. The pick: Over 216
I know I just mentioned Harden's scoring average against Smart, but as last season progressed, it became clear that the 76ers are viewing him as more of a point guard than a scorer. He averaged 10.5 assists per game as a Sixer in the regular season, and with Tyrese Maxey ascending, they are likely perfectly content with Harden preserving his body and focusing on setting up his teammates. The pick: Harden over 8.5 assists
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Ignore the bizarre roster Rob Pelinka has put together for a moment. LeBron James, for whatever reason, simply does not win on opening night very often. He's 0-4 in season openers as a Laker and 7-12 on opening night for his career. You could attribute that to him frequently playing against marquee teams on opening night, but, well, look at who he's playing on Tuesday. Opening night also tends to be quite favorable to defending champions. James himself has won four of the past 11 championships. Five of the other six champions (excluding the 2022 Warriors) have won the opener to their title defense. Ring night is extremely emotional. It tends to buoy the home team. Expect it to again on Tuesday. The pick: Warriors -7
Those emotions will serve the Warriors well. Draymond Green will surely want to make an impression after his tumultuous training camp, and the Lakers are so devoid of shooting that it's hard to envision them scoring many points against the locked-in Warriors. More than that, though, this line is simply too high. Why is Vegas spotting the Lakers and the Warriors 12.5 more points than the Celtics and Sixers? The Warriors were elite defensively last season. The Lakers weren't, but Anthony Davis is healthy this time around. The pick: Under 224.5
Yes, I'm going to continue harping on this "LeBron struggles on opening night" trend. His scoring line is 26.5 points. He's scored 27 or more points in just two of his past 10 opening night games. Seemingly every season begins with the world collectively asking if James is washed up. The answer, every season thus far, has been no. But who am I to defy such a tradition? The pick: James under 26.5 points
