Ben Simmons is the top player in the 2016 NBA Draft and he's going to go first overall to Philadelphia. That much seems clear at this point.
However, it's worth noting that coming into the season, this was far from a foregone conclusion.
Kentucky's Skal Labissiere topped the first CBS Sports NBA Draft Big Board of the season, with Simmons coming in at No. 2 and Jaylen Brown sitting at No. 3.
First CBS Sports NBA Draft Big Board of the season.
CBS SportsOverall, despite missing on Labissiere at No. 1, that's not too bad of a projection. My current top six players heading into Thursday were all featured in the preseason board's top seven. All of my top nine preseason players have been invited to the NBA Draft's green room. Beyond them, No. 10, Cheick Diallo, No. 14, Furkan Korkmaz, and No. 15, Domantas Sabonis, are solidly projected in the first round, plus Diamond Stone has a shot to end up there if NBA teams like his game more than I do. Really, the only total miss was on Malik Newman, who ended up transferring after not quite fitting in at Mississippi State.
There are quite a few risers worth noting, however. Buddy Hield is the biggest one. Unlike many, I had Hield as a first-round prospect heading into the season. However, at No. 26, there is obviously a relatively large difference there in terms of his performance this season. Brice Johnson moved up from outside of the first round to solidly in my first round, and ditto for DeAndre Bembry at St. Joe's and Tyler Ulis at Kentucky.
The biggest riser though has to be Marquese Chriss, who went from off of my initial board into the top 15 after showcasing his athletic gifts at Washington. Chriss missed the board for the same reason I have him rated lower than most currently: his basketball IQ was a major question despite the athleticism. I thought we were looking at a 2-to-3 year player at Washington that may or may not develop. I also misjudged the full extent of his athleticism at the time, and thought his shooting stroke was a bit worse than he showed this season. Overall, Chriss caught plenty of people by surprise, so I'm not necessarily down about missing on him. Sometimes, that happens.
The international class also took a rather large leap forward this year, and it appears that early in the year I underrated them as a whole in comparison to the weak domestic class. Guys like Timothe Luwawu, Ivica Zubac, and Ante Zizic became nearly assured first round picks after good seasons in the Adriatic League (well, at least for Zizic and Luwawu). Paul Zipser became a legitimate prospect by gaining more time at Bayern. Rade Zagorac was superb at Mega Leks this season in the second half and moved into the top part of the draft. Juan Hernangomez won the ACB's young player of the year award. And while those guys rose, the domestic class fell to earth in what was clearly a down college basketball season. This is why we may see upward of 15 to 20 international players selected on Thursday, and why the draft's domestic class is considered as weak as it is.
Overall, this shouldn't come as a surprise, but building an NBA Draft board is a process that begins years before the actual draft year. Those who work in the industry of creating boards -- both on the team side and in the media side -- have to do their homework years in advance. The sample size is never only the most recent year, even for college freshmen. Then over the course of the year, you hone in and realize who needs to slot in where.
There is one key difference though. Teams have their own specific draft boards based on their own needs. My draft board is more of an amalgamation of all teams and essentially an expected value equation based on a multitude of factors. Who has the highest potential ceiling? The highest potential floor? What are the odds they reach that ceiling? How many different situations do they fit in? My board for the Celtics would look different than my board for the 76ers. and my board for Orlando would look different than my board for San Antonio. In the end, the final product is a mental approximation of all of those boards, and it's what you see below.
Here is my final board for the 2016 NBA Draft.
