2025 NBA Mock Draft: Ace Bailey falls to Jazz at No. 5, Cooper Flagg is top pick after Mavericks win lottery
Many project Bailey could go in the top three of June's NBA Draft, but Gary Parrish sees the Rutgers freshman landing in Utah
By
Gary Parrish
•
1 min read
Nobody enjoys a good conspiracy theory these days more than Americans. Everything from Presidential elections to space trips are doubted and debated, so much so that it's become increasingly difficult to even agree on facts. Which is why I guess I shouldn't be surprised that, once again, lots of folks are questioning the legitimacy of the NBA Draft Lottery after the Mavericks won it Monday night. But, as I explained Tuesday morning on the Eye On College Basketball podcast, the idea that such a high-profile event would be, or even could be, rigged in the Year 2025 is so silly that it borders on delusional.
It's a conspiracy that makes no sense.
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Whatever benefit you think might come from the NBA rigging the lottery to push Cooper Flagg to Dallas is completely overwhelmed by a million counterpoints — most notably that doing so would literally be a federal crime that could cost people jobs and freedom, not to mention undermine the credibility of a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. In the simplest terms, rigging the lottery would neither be worth it nor accomplishable given the way things are now done. So it would be cool if those who push the narrative with literally no proof to support it would chill. But, obviously, I don't expect that to happen, and the 2025 lottery will likely be a storyline that's routinely revisited as Flagg embarks on a professional career in Dallas that should help Mavs fans recover from the goofy and irresponsible trade of Luka Doncic midseason.
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
The Mavericks are reportedly committed to making this selection (as opposed to packaging it for a veteran), which ensures Flagg will begin his NBA career playing home games in Dallas. Does it guarantee the youngest Wooden Award winner in history will emerge as the best player from this draft? Not necessarily. But Flagg was always going to be the only sensible choice at No. 1 regardless of the franchise picking.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Harper is the consensus No. 2 prospect in this draft and thus should be the second player selected even if he's not a perfect fit on a roster already featuring De'Aaron Fox and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. As others have noted, that could lead to San Antonio shopping the pick to franchises more in need of a lead guard with great positional size. So keep an eye on that. Either way, no matter which franchise ends up picking second, Harper is likely to be the second name announced.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
There's some thought that the Sixers could try to move this pick for a veteran given where former MVP Joel Embiid is in his career. That's understandable. But if the Sixers do execute the pick, they shouldn't let the presence of talented young guards like Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain on their roster steer them away from Johnson, the player I believe is the third best prospect in this draft. The one-and-done athlete from Texas led all freshmen in scoring while shooting 39.7% from 3-point range on 6.8 attempts per contest. Impressive numbers, all around. And most of them are the types of numbers that should translate well to the next level.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
The Hornets went from having as good of odds as anybody to land Flagg and keep him 150 miles from where he starred at Duke to sliding down to fourth in this draft. That's bad luck. But they'll still have an opportunity to land a difference-maker -- among them Edgecombe, who is a top-shelf and explosive athlete capable of creating posters in transition. He's the type of prospect who is both safe and filled with upside after helping Baylor make what was a sixth straight trip to the NCAA Tournament.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
More evidence that Rutgers should've been better than it was is the fact that the Scarlet Knights finished with a losing record despite having two projected top-five picks. Bailey's upside is tremendous given that he's an electric shot-creator and shot-maker. He checks the box of best prospect available, at this point in this mock draft, and thus makes the most sense for a Utah franchise still totally rebuilding.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Knueppel was mostly excellent through Duke's run to the Final Four, averaging 19.0 points while shooting 63.6% from beyond the arc. He's an elite shooter, obviously, but far from only a shooter — and anybody labeling him as little more than a catch-and-shoot threat is wildly underestimating Knueppel's versatility as a player who projects as a nice building block for a Wizards franchise that basically needs everything.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
What Jakucionis lacks in explosiveness he makes up for with his diverse skillset and high basketball IQ. The Lithuanian only shot 31.8% from 3-point range in one season at Illinois. That shouldn't be ignored. But Jackucionis has previously shown to be a more reliable shooter than he largely demonstrated with the Illini and could develop into a nice piece going forward alongside Zion Williamson in New Orleans.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Fears is set to join the relatively short list of one-and-done lottery picks who were ranked outside of the top 60 of their high school classes. His unique ability to change speeds and keep defenders off balance is too much to ignore even if his subpar 3-point percentage is a source of concern. Armed with four first-round picks, Brooklyn can and should take a big swing here. In my opinion, Fears is the biggest swing available at this point in this mock draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Maluach's truly great freshman year concluded horribly with a zero-rebound effort in 21 minutes during Duke's season-ending loss to Houston. But that was just one game against an older and stronger team, and it shouldn't sour front offices too much on an 18 year-old who can move unusually well for a man his size. Simply put, the Raptors should be in best-prospect-available mode. Maluach projects as that prospect here.
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From
Phoenix Suns
Round 1 - Pick 10
The Rockets are a 52-win franchise with most of its important pieces under contract. They can afford to package this pick in a trade or use it on a high-upside prospect — and Bryant clearly represents the latter. These playoffs have reminded everybody how much great 3-and-D wings impact winning in the postseason. Bryant has the tools to become one and should be selected accordingly regardless of his limited role as a freshman at Arizona.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Richardson didn't emerge as a starter at Michigan State until halfway through the season but quickly showed himself to be the team's most dynamic scorer. He's the son of 14-year NBA veteran Jason Richardson, which is viewed as a positive among NBA front offices. The combo guard is a high-energy prospect with the type of basketball IQ children of players often possess, and he should be a sensible option for a Portland franchise with promising frontcourt pieces already in place.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
The combine proved that Fleming is a little taller than 6-8 (barefoot) with a wingspan a little better than 7-5. Those measurements are great for somebody who also shot 39% from 3-point range on 4.5 attempts per game as a 20 year-old, and that's among the reasons Fleming has a real chance to go in the lottery despite mostly operating off of the national radar in three seasons at Saint Joseph's.
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From
Sacramento Kings
Round 1 - Pick 13
The Hawks were once again a below-average defensive team, in part because the franchise point guard, Trae Young, had one of the worst defensive-ratings in the NBA. Murray-Boyles could help improve that issue. Yes, he's a non-shooting and undersized front-court piece, which makes him a somewhat divisive prospect. But the two-year player from South Carolina is impactful in multiple ways on both ends of the court, and his feel for the game, instincts and defensive versatility have many evaluators on board with the 19 year-old being a lottery pick.
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From
Atlanta Hawks
Round 1 - Pick 14
Queen is a super-interesting forward who offsets some of his physical limitations with skill and smarts. He hit the buzzer-beater against Colorado State that sent Maryland to the Sweet 16, scored 27 against the eventual national champion (Florida) and solidified himself in the NCAA Tournament as an intriguing lottery option, particularly for a franchise that has two lottery picks and could use a talented rookie alongside Victor Wembenyama.
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From
Miami Heat
Round 1 - Pick 15
The Thunder have a loaded roster and multiple first-round picks, making them a good candidate to package assets to possibly move up in the draft. As always, we'll see. But if they sit tight at No. 15, McNeeley is a nice option. He only shot 31.7% from 3-point range in his one year at UConn — but scouts are largely unconcerned and still view him as a strong-shooting wing at the next level. An ankle sprain cost him more than a month of his season, but McNeeley showed enough while on the court to convince evaluators he's worthy of being selected in the top 20.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Clifford, 23, is older than the type of prospects some front offices prefer to select with top-20 picks — but he checks a lot of other boxes. Good positional size? Yes. Competent shooter? Yes. Versatile defender? Yes. He could be the next nice NBA player to emerge from the Mountain West Conference.
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From
Detroit Pistons
Round 1 - Pick 17
Wolf moved from the Ivy League to the Big Ten and, statistically, arguably performed even better. The 7-footer has guard skills and is a better defender than some realize. He could add frontcourt versatility to a Minnesota franchise led by Anthony Edwards and setup to compete for championships this season and beyond.
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From
Memphis Grizzlies
Round 1 - Pick 18
Demin is a backcourt player with tremendous size — but one who turned it over 2.9 times per game this season, which should be at least a little concerning for franchises viewing him as a ball-in-his-hands guard. The 3-point percentage is also an issue. So it's easy to understand why the one-and-done prospect from Russia is a divisive prospect, but there's still little chance he goes much lower than the middle of the first round.
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From
Milwaukee Bucks
Round 1 - Pick 19
Can Newell keep the floor spaced as a legitimate 3-point threat? If so, he should go higher. If not, he should go lower. Either way, that's the swing-skill for the one-and-done prospect who performed quite well as a freshman in an SEC filled with much older and stronger forwards. A Brooklyn franchise with multiple first-round would be wise to take a serious look at younger prospects filled with upside, and Newell fits that description considering he won't turn 20 years old until October.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
 
Noa Essengue
PF
France
• 6'10"
/ 200 lbs
Essengue is a French prospect with great positional size. As one of the youngest players available, he's a long-term bet. But if the shot develops, and the defensive versatility becomes undeniable, the 18 year old could be a steal at this point in the draft for a Heat franchise seemingly at a crossroads after trading Jimmy Butler and getting swept out of the playoffs by a Cavs team that was subsequently eliminated by the Pacers in five games.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
 
Joan Beringer
C
France
• 6'11"
/ 235 lbs
Beringer is a frontcourt prospect with a 7-4 wingspan who provides defensive versatility and the ability to rim-protect. Is he ready to contribute in the NBA next season? Probably not. But there's a lot to like with this 18 year old from Serbia who could be a building block for a Utah franchise still years away from competing for anything meaningful.
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From
Los Angeles Lakers
Round 1 - Pick 22
 
Nolan Traore
PG
France
• 6'4"
/ 175 lbs
Traore does enough good things with the ball in his hands to secure a spot in the first round— but his inefficiency, and lack of shooting, are non-starters for some front offices. At 18, there are still many years of development for the French native. Any franchise selecting him has to do so with that understanding.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Sorber seemed ahead of schedule for a one-and-done prospect before suffering a season-ending left-foot injury on Feb. 15. Regardless, he did enough in 24 games to show he'd either spend next season as a Big East Player of the Year candidate or as a rookie in the NBA. The foot-injury is concerning, if only because big men with foot injuries don't have the best stories. But Sorber should still go in the first round of this draft and could provide frontcourt depth for an Indiana franchise in the Eastern Conference Finals for the second straight year.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 24
 
Ben Saraf
PG
Israel
• 6'5"
/ 200 lbs
Saraf is another international prospect with nice positional size. Concerns about his shooting and athleticism should keep him out of the lottery — but there's enough pick-and-roll playmaking ability already in place to ensure his name is called in this range -- whether it's to Oklahoma City at No. 24 or another franchise in this neighborhood of the draft.
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From
Denver Nuggets
Round 1 - Pick 25
Raynaud improved statistically in four straight years at Stanford — going from somebody who averaged 4.5 points as a freshman to somebody who averaged 20.2 as a senior. His ability to stretch the floor and pass at his size are considered strengths and could be useful for an Orlando franchise in need of more scoring pop in the frontcourt.
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From
New York Knicks
Round 1 - Pick 26
 
Hugo Gonzalez
SF
Spain
• 6'6"
/ 205 lbs
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 1 - Pick 27
Kalkbrenner is a four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year He's far from what anybody would call a modern NBA center. But if Zach Edey went in the top 10 of the 2025 NBA Draft, there's no reason Kalkbrenner can't go in the top 30 of the 2025 NBA Draft -- especially when there's a Brooklyn franchise with four first-round picks and a need at center.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
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From
Cleveland Cavaliers
Round 1 - Pick 29
Clayton was the star of Florida's national title run while averaging 22.3 points on 43.5% shooting from beyond the arc in those six NCAA Tournament games. There are concerns about his decision-making and approach to defense, but the Most Outstanding Player of the 2025 Final Four is such a skilled and unique shotmaker that he's worthy of a serious look this deep in the first round by a Phoenix franchise that probably needs to hit the reset button.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Jones helped himself with evaluators this past season while showing the ability to handle lead-guard responsibilities. Yes, his 3-point accuracy dropped to a career-low 31.1%, which wasn't ideal. But the four-year standout at Marquette had already established himself as a reliable shooter. So the dip shouldn't matter too much, and Jones could provide backcourt depth from Day 1 in Los Angeles.
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