The 2022 NASCAR playoffs are starting to wind down, as this weekend's race at Martinsville will set the table for the season finale. As has been the case numerous times this season, Chase Elliott is favored to win the 2022 Xfinity 500. Elliott is priced at 13-2 in the latest 2022 Xfinity 500 odds at Caesars Sportsbook, while Denny Hamlin is 7-1. Should you be backing either of the names at the top of the NASCAR odds board with your 2022 Xfinity 500 bets?
Elliott won the pole and dominated the first two stages at this track in the spring before a pit road penalty bumped him out of the top five. Ellott won the 2020 fall race en route to a spot in the Championship 4, but will he have the same success on Sunday? Before scouring the 2022 Xfinity 500 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Martinsville predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Martinsville picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
In the 2021 season, McClure's model nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season.
So far in 2022, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 on his win in St. Louis. In early August, it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan and then last week it was high on Tyler Reddick before he won at Texas for a 12-1 payout. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Martinsville race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Xfinity 500 leaderboard.
Top 2022 NASCAR at Martinsville predictions
For the 2022 Xfinity 500, the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's a 14-1 longshot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Martinsville odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Chastain enters Sunday sitting second in the 2022 NASCAR standings and he's got a solid 19-point cushion to work with that virtually guarantees he'll make the championship finale barring catastrophe.
But anybody expecting him to sit on his hands certainly hasn't paid attention to his aggressive tactics throughout his career. Chastain has drawn some criticism for his go-for-broke mentality and with a chance to wrestle first place away from Joey Logano, you can expect him to run hard on Sunday. He's coming off runner-up finishes in each of his last two starts and finished fifth at Martinsville in the spring, so expect him to return to that setup to make a serious charge towards the front. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.
And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, the Vegas favorite at 13-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 Xfinity 500 starting lineup. Elliott won the 2020 Xfinity 500 at Martinsville but he's had extraordinarily disappointing results in his last two starts there.
Elliott started on the pole in the 2022 Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 and led 185 laps but wound up finishing 10th. And at the 2021 Xfinity 500, Elliott started second and led a staggering 289 laps but fell all the way back to 16th at the finish. Elliott enters Sunday's race third in the 2022 NASCAR standings and with an 11-point cushion over bubble boy Denny Hamlin, he'll likely be racing for points rather than taking risks for the win with a spot in the championship finale on the line. See which other favorites to avoid here.
How to make 2022 NASCAR Martinsville picks
The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Martinsville odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Xfinity 500 2022? And which longshots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest NASCAR at Martinsville odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 NASCAR Martinsville leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season.
2022 Xfinity 500 odds, field
See full NASCAR Martinsville picks, best bets, and predictions here
Chase Elliott 13-2
Denny Hamlin 7-1
William Byron 15-2
Ryan Blaney 8-1
Joey Logano 17-2
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Kyle Larson 11-1
Christopher Bell 11-1
Ross Chastain 14-1
Kyle Busch 14-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Brad Keselowski 25-1
Bubba Wallace 35-1
Aric Almirola 35-1
Chase Briscoe 40-1
Daniel Suarez 45-1
Austin Dillon 50-1
Noah Gragson 50-1
Austin Cindric 50-1
AJ Allmendinger 50-1
Chris Buescher 50-1
Erik Jones 75-1
Ty Gibbs 75-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Justin Haley 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse 300-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Ty Dillon 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 1500-1
Corey Lajoie 2000-1
Landon Cassill 2500-1
JJ Yeley 2500-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
