As they say, that escalated quickly. From an utterly incredible volume of baseball on Saturday -- we had four games but one of them lasted the equivalent to two games on its own -- to just one game. The other three division series are done, with the NL side seeing both series concluded in four games and the AL side seeing one sweep. All that remains is the Yankees at Guardians bout Sunday evening in Game 4 at Progressive Field.
The Guardians hold a 2-1 series lead after the Yankees took Game 1. The Guardians came through in the clutch with an extra-innings victory in Game 2 and an amazing ninth-inning comeback, walk-off, win in Game 3.
What's in store for Game 4? It'll be pretty unpredictable, but we'll try to hit some bets anyway.
All lines courtesy of Caesars
OVER 6.5 runs, -125
I tried the over in Game 2 and both teams let me down. I stayed away in Game 3 when I should have stayed the course. Even before the Guardians stormed back, it was 5-3 Yankees and that was already over the total.
Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the Yankees, and while he has a ton of talent and will get his strikeouts, he can be gotten to. His 3.50 ERA this season was only 11 percent better than average and not ace-like. He allowed at least four runs in nine of his 33 starts. He led the AL with 33 home runs allowed, too. I like the Guardians getting a second look at him within the span of five days.
Also, the Yankees bullpen is thin, cannot be trusted and has been worked hard the past two days.
The Guardians' bullpen has also been worked hard, though it's deep and can be trusted.
Still, the Yankees get a quick turnaround look at Cal Quantrill after getting him for four runs on on four hits, including two home runs, in Game 1.
Aaron Judge home run, +200
He looked totally lost in the first two games of the series and even got booed by some overly-entitled Yankees fans. He's a pro, though, and wiped the slate clean on his way to Cleveland. He hit the monster (449-footer) home run and then later flew out to the warning track on a very well-struck ball.
Anyone who watched Judge regularly this season knows his home runs came in bunches. He homered on consecutive games a ridiculous 14 times.
Judge struck out twice before walking against Quantrill in Game 1, but having just seen him, the familiarity means better swings this time around.
I like another long ball here.
José Ramírez, OVER 0.5 RBI, +168
After a regular season with 126 RBI, he hit a two-run homer in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series but has now gone four games without any. He's gone 6 for 13 with a pair of doubles in this series, so he's seeing the ball well. He's due to get a knock with someone in scoring position this time around.
Plus, I'm a fan of familiarity. Ramírez has seen Gerrit Cole 30 times, and he's hit .292/.400/.708 with two doubles, a triple, two homers and five RBI against him. We could also take a look at over 0.5 runs (+139), over 0.5 hits (-164), over 0.5 doubles (+342), a home run (+675) and over 0.5 total bases (-164).
