Give Jazz Chisholm Jr. this much: he knows how to make a good introduction.
In Chisholm's first three games since being traded to the New York Yankees, he went 6 for 15 with four home runs and eight runs batted in. His homer frenzy ended on Wednesday afternoon, but he extended his hit streak (now up to five games overall) as part of a victory against the Philadelphia Phillies that clinched a three-game sweep.
Chisholm and the Yankees will have Thursday off for travel purposes. Friday, however, will mark another milestone: his first home game at Yankee Stadium. We wanted to expand on a thought we first expressed in our trade grades analysis -- that Chisholm's best ball may lie ahead, and that he may benefit from his new ballpark.
With that in mind, here are three factors worth considering.
1. Miami's ballpark is kinder to lefties than you think
The perception of Miami's loanDepot park as an arctic offensive environment isn't wholly true. Yes, it's tough on right-handed hitters, particularly those who want to slug. But, according to Statcast, lefties have it much easier in Miami. In fact, loanDepot park actually grades as one of the 10 best MLB stadiums to hit in if, like Chisholm, you happen to bat from the left side -- better overall, even, than Yankee Stadium.
Even so, there are some elements where Yankee Stadium is superior, including with respect to hitting home runs. Here's a breakdown of those respective numbers:
| Park | Park factor | BA on contact | HR |
|---|---|---|---|
Yankee Stadium | 98 | 94 | 122 |
loanDepot park | 103 | 104 | 100 |
The only ballparks that offer more favorable conditions for lefty power than Yankee Stadium are located in Cincinnati and Philadelphia. (Maybe it's no surprise that Chisholm scorched the Phillies this week?)
2. Power should still play better at Yankee Stadium
Helpfully, Statcast doesn't just offer park factors; it also offers estimates on how many more home runs a player would have hit if they played their games in a particular stadium. According to that data, Chisholm would have entered Wednesday with five more home runs if he had been graced with Yankee Stadium's dimensions.
That's not just theory, either. Chisholm had four extra-base hits to right field in Miami that had the distance and launch angle to clear the fence at Yankee Stadium. Take this double for example; or this one; or this triple.
Mind you, that's ignoring any fly outs that may have crept over the wall if he had been wearing pinstripes.
Chisholm, only two home runs away from matching his career high, is all but certain to clear the 20-homer threshold for the first time. Heading forward, who knows; with good health, he might find his way closer to 25 next year.
3. Some underlying improvements
We noted in our trade grades that we weren't sold on Chisholm completely maintaining the gains he had made this year with his walk and strikeout rates. (He entered Wednesday with career-best marks in each category.) We still think there are reasons to be encouraged by some under-the-hood elements.
For example, Chisholm has upped his ability to make contact versus secondary pitches, with his whiff rate dipping from 44.8% last year to 35.5% this year. That particular statistic may help to explain the reduced K rate, even if his in-zone contact rate is the second-lowest it's been over the last four years.
Just as importantly, there's some reason to believe Chisholm has improved his approach. While there's no one way to assess such a thing, Robert Orr's SEAGER metric is perhaps the best public-facing measure. The short description of SEAGER is that it credits batters for swinging at pitches they can damage. Here are Chisholm's SEAGER scores from each of the past four years (the higher the number the better):
- 2024: 18.6
- 2023: 14
- 2022: 12.3
- 2021: 17.6
For context, Aaron Judge's SEAGER score is 26.3, Martín Maldonado's is 1.9 and Brandon Marsh comes in at 10.2. That gives you a sense of high and low marks, and where Chisholm falls in between.
Part of the reason for Chisholm's SEAGER gains? He's become more aggressive on hittable pitches. He's allowed just 33.2% of pitches marked with that classification to pass him by this year, as opposed to 37.6% last season.
Pair a more optimized approach with an environment that encourages Chisholm to swing for the fences, and it's possible that he's in for a big finish to the season.
