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As somebody with a strong interest in history and war, I can tell you there are two undisputable axioms when it comes to warfare. The first is that you can't win a land war in Asia, and the second is you can't win a war against the fans.

This is something the Mets are in the process of learning, or at least I hope they are. It's also possible that they've become so used to losing that they won't sense anything has changed with the current backlash to their thumbs-down shenanigans.

Listen, I get it. If I'm Francisco Lindor, Javy Báez, or anybody else in a Mets uniform, how can you not be frustrated hearing boos in your park? I have never been the fan that would pay money to see my team play and then boo them, no matter how terrible they're performing. It's not who I am. Still, I don't blame any fan for expressing their displeasure, and I surely can't blame Mets fans for growing frustrated watching their team fade from division contention at the same time their big brothers across the East River are playing their best ball of the season.

But you can't go after fans. Nobody is going to take your side in this debate. Not your front office. Not your owner. Not the media. Nobody. The only thing you're going to do is make things worse. If history has proven anything, it's that the only way to ever win over fans is... to win games.

So I suggest doing more of that and less of the thumbs-down celebrations.

OK, let's make some money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

Red Sox at Rays, 7:10 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Rays (-135)
: Considering the pitching matchup between Luis Patiño and Nick Pivetta, I understand why the prices are where they're at, but even so, the Rays should be bigger favorites. Patiño has not been great for Tampa this season, posting an ERA of 4.53 in 51.2 innings. He doesn't strike a lot of guys out, his walk rate is higher than you want it to be, and it'd be nice if he did a better job of limiting fly balls and line drives.

But you can say similar things about Boston starter Nick Pivetta. The two have put up similar numbers in nearly all regards this season, but the difference is Patiño is backed by a bullpen with the lowest ERA in baseball. Pivetta isn't.

This is a matchup of two of baseball's best offenses -- Tampa ranks 1st in run rate, Boston third -- going against two mediocre pitchers, but only one is backed by a strong bullpen. That alone gives Tampa a significant advantage in this matchup. An advantage that's worth more than this price suggests.

Key Trend: Tampa has won seven of the last eight meetings, including five straight at home.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's Larry Hartstein has gone 35-19 over his last 54 MLB money line plays for a return of 10.18 units. Like me, he has a play on tonight's money line as well, but are we in agreement?


💰 The Picks

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Getty Images

⚾ MLB

Orioles at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-160) -- 
You know I'm always looking for opportunities to fade the Orioles, and when I see one of the best pitchers in baseball going against them, I'm not going to pass it up. Robbie Ray is a Cy Young candidate having the best season of his career at the perfect time (he's a free agent this winter). Ray enters tonight's contest with an ERA of 2.72 in 152.1 innings and a strikeout rate of 31.6%. Ray's strikeout rate ranks fourth in MLB among qualified starters, behind Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole.

It's a rate that could increase tonight against a Baltimore lineup that's more swing-happy than most and owns a walk rate that ranks 28th in the league. My confidence is not diminished by the fact Toronto is 6-3 against Baltimore this season and has outscored them 64-39 in nine games. Their six wins have come by an average of 5.7 runs per game.

Key Trend: The Blue Jays have outscored Baltimore by 25 runs in nine meetings this season. 

Braves at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 9 (-120) -- 
My numbers suggest this total is a little too high, given the matchup. The total is probably due to Drew Smyly starting for the Braves, as he's been rather homer-prone in 2021. Smyly has allowed 23 home runs in 111 innings for the Braves this season. Only 15 pitchers have allowed more this season, and of those 15, only one -- Adbert Alzolay of the Cubs -- has pitched fewer innings than Smyly.

But -- but! -- I don't think that's a big enough deal to affect my feelings on the total here. The Dodgers offense ranks fourth in baseball with a wRC+ of 107, but that number drops to 98 -- 2% below league average -- against lefties like Smyly. And you know who else has struggled against lefties this season? The Braves, who will be facing Dodgers lefty, Julio Urias. All of that and a cool evening in Chavez Ravine make me think this game will be lower-scoring than anticipated.

Key Trend: The under is 15-4-3 in the Dodgers last 22 games.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Advanced Computer Model's favorite MLB play of the night is on one side of the spread in tonight's game between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros.


💰 The CFB futures market 

The Pick: Oregon to win the Pac-12 (+250): Today, we released our picks for the college football season at CBSSports.com, and all my college football colleagues are boring. If you look at their picks for the four teams to reach the College Football Playoff, they only picked Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia or Oklahoma. I was the only person who veered from the norm, putting Oregon in the fourth slot.

Now, I don't expect the Ducks to win a national title this season, but I have them in the playoff for a reason. They're the best team in the Pac-12. To get them at these odds to win the conference is too good to pass up, so you should join me in taking advantage of what is a tremendous value.