This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday afternoon here.
All times Eastern | Game odds via SportsLine consensus
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Rangers at Mets, 7:10 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Rangers (-131)
- Key trend: The Mets have lost three of their last four home games.
The Rangers are a team that I never have had a problem backing throughout the 2023 season. Even though they're had lost eight consecutive games earlier this month, I'm still very comfortable taking them in this spot.
There's been no doubt that the Rangers have been among the most dangerous lineups in all of baseball. After all, this is a team that has scored the second-most runs in the majors with only the Braves plating more. The Rangers' offensive numbers have been a bit down, but I'm counting on them to bounce back. Texas has racked up wins in two of its last three contests, and it has scored 16 runs during that span.
I'm trusting that the Rangers' bats will be able to have an abundance of success when facing Mets starter Jose Quintana. Since returning to the mound last month following a rib injury, the Mets have come out on the losing end in six of Quintana's seven starts. Quintana is also coming off of a start in which he yielded five earned runs on nine hits in just 5 1/3 innings. Look for the Rangers to be able to do enough against Quintana and a lackluster Mets team to come away with a victory in this spot.
|
|
|
|
|
|
💰 More MLB picks
Rays at Marlins, 6:40 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)
- Key trend: The over is 7-2 in the Rays' last nine games.
The battle for Florida supremacy will get underway Tuesday when the Marlins host the Rays. While there's a solid pitching matchup here, I'm still a huge fan of the over.
The Marlins are sending right-hander Sandy Alcantara to the mound on Tuesday. It's safe to say that Alcantara hasn't exactly been the same pitcher that he was when he won the NL Cy Young Award in 2022. He carries a surprising 4.16 ERA and has surrendered at least four earned runs in three of his last six starts. In addition to Alcantara struggling this season, the Rays offense has been tremendous averaging 7.4 runs over its past 10 games. The Rays have also racked up at least six runs in seven of their games during that stretch.
Meanwhile, starting pitcher Aaron Civale has been solid since being traded to the Rays at the trade deadline. While Civale does possess a 3.54 ERA in four starts with Tampa, he has given up three earned runs in two of those outings. Civale also doesn't strike out a ton of batters as he's registered just five strikeouts or fewer in three of those games.
The Marlins aren't the most electric offense in the majors, but scratching across a few runs isn't outside of the realm of possibility. I'm expecting the Rays to do the majority of the scoring off a struggling Alcantara, and it also doesn't hurt that the Marlins bullpen has a 4.09 ERA this season.
Astros at Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Brayan Bello Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
- Key trend: Bello has registered four or fewer strikeouts in five of his last seven starts.
Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has been up-and-down throughout the 2023 season. With that in mind, I'm banking on Bello going under his strikeouts prop in this spot.
Bello certainly doesn't have overpowering stuff on the mound, which bodes well for the Astros. The Red Sox right-hander has tallied four or less strikeouts in five of his last seven starts, including registering four or fewer strikeouts in three of his last four outings. In addition, Bello is averaging just 4.73 strikeouts across his 22 starts on the year. Considering the Astros strike out the fifth-fewest in the majors, I'm banking on Bello not registering many punch-outs in this one.
