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We're now past the trade deadline and just a touch under two months remain in the 2024 Major League Baseball season. This is about the time of year where, among other things, I start really zeroing in on how the races for the major player awards are shaping up. 

Let's take a look where the races stand. 

For a key: bWAR is Baseball Reference's version of WAR, while fWAR is FanGraphs' version of WAR

American League MVP

The favorites: 

This felt like Judge had this award sewn up for a while and the odds certainly reflect that, but Witt is far closer than the odds suggest. He's coming off a month for the ages and his Royals are in a wild-card spot just like Judge's Yankees are. If you look at their numbers and factor in Witt's prowess as an exceptional defender at shortstop, it's clear this race depends on what you value most. 

Judge: .316/.447/.689, 214 OPS+, 122 hits, 25 doubles, 1 triple, 39 homers, 99 RBI, five steals, 84 runs, 7.5 bWAR, 7.3 fWAR, 86 walks, 119 strikeouts

Witt: .350/.398/.604, 174 OPS+, 153 hits, 31 doubles, 10 triples, 19 homers, 78 RBI, 24 steals, 93 runs, 7.2 bWAR, 7.8 fWAR, 34 walks, 74 strikeouts 

Henderson was right in this battle for a while, but he's fallen off a bit while Witt surged and Judge's power numbers are menacing. It's a two-horse race for first right now and it could stay that way until Game 162.

National League MVP

The favorites: 

It certainly seems like Ohtani's award to lose and, again, the odds reflect that. That said, there's a decent-sized pool of contenders who will push Ohtani down the stretch, especially since he's only a designated hitter this time. No full-time DH has ever won an MVP and he has to overcome not playing defense.

It is interesting to note that, despite no defense, Ohtani leads the NL in WAR. It even builds in negative value for defense for DHs. His offense has been so good it's overcome the penalty to put him on top. He leads the league in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage (which also means he leads in OPS and OPS+) in addition to home runs, runs and total bases. 

Harper is in a terrible slump right now, but has the foundation in numbers to make a run. Lindor is a great power-speed-defense combo but would have to overcome his .254 batting average and .331 on-base percentage, especially in a table-setting spot in the batting order.

Marte is one to watch here and I think his odds have him undervalued. He should be up with Lindor, at least. The Diamondbacks have caught fire and coworker Corbin Carroll has been a disappointment. Marte has picked up the slack. He's second in bWAR to Ohtani and is hitting .302/.369/.541 (153 OPS+) with 20 doubles, two triples, 24 homers, 72 RBI, 74 runs and six steals while providing outstanding defense at second. 

American League Cy Young

The favorites: 

Skubal is 12-3 for a sub-.500 team while leading the league in ERA and bWAR. He's second in strikeouts and carries a top-10 workload. That same workload is a concern, though, in handicapping this thing. He pitched 149 1/3 innings in 2021, was shut down and needed flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and returned last season to pitch 80 1/3 innings in 15 starts. He's at 130 innings right now. As he works up above 150 innings, will he wear down? It's possible. That would leave the door open. 

Burnes, on the other hand, won the NL Cy Young in 2021, worked 202 innings in 2022 and 193 2/3 last year. He's second to Skubal in ERA and could approach 200 innings for a first-place team. 

This race could well come down to September with these two. Lugo leads the league in innings pitched and is third in ERA, too, so he's one to watch with longer odds and Kirby is also a legitimate candidate. 

National League Cy Young

The favorites: 

Can a narrative whisk voters away? Sometimes. Sale had a seven-year stretch where he finished sixth, fifth, third, fourth, fifth, second and fourth in Cy Young voting. Then he had a bad season, had to have Tommy John surgery, suffered a setback and dealt with inconsistencies. The Red Sox traded him to the Braves last offseason and he's now 13-3 with a 2.71 ERA. 

Sale leads the league in wins, ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP and fWAR, so by no means would winning the award by a charitable move by the BBWAA, but if it's close, maybe a nice story could help swing things for a voter or two. 

Of course, if a story does get some people caught up in the moment, Sale's might not even be the best one. Skenes was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft and then started the All-Star Game this season. He's a superstar already. 

It is an interesting case, too. The Pirates phenom started in Triple-A and was slow-played with workload, so he has only 80 2/3 innings pitched while Sale sits at 123. Logan Webb leads the league at 144 1/3. Three players are tied for 10th with 124 1/3. But Skenes has been so good that he's fourth in bWAR behind only Greene, Reynaldo López and Sale, in that order. 

Skenes is 6-1 with a 1.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 103 strikeouts against 16 walks. Those are Cy Young stats, but will the partial season be held against him? Should it? 

Wheeler is fourth in innings and third in ERA, among other quality categories for the veteran. Greene has a decent lead in bWAR (4.5 to López's 3.7). He's fifth in ERA and in the top 10 in innings and strikeouts. Cease is on fire now and riding the wave of his no-hitter. He also has 174 strikeouts when no one else has more than 155. 

This is a really fun race that is far from settled. None of the players discussed have ever won a Cy Young. 

American League Rookie of the Year

The favorites: 

This is easily the most wide-open field on the board. 

Mason Miller of the A's was a major, national story early in the season and he's still going strong. His odds are +6000! He's 15 of 17 in saves for a terrible team with a 2.21 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 70 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings. I'm shocked his odds are this extreme when so few AL rookies have been great, but he does come up short due to the lack of workload. Given the low innings totals carried by relievers, he would probably need to be somewhere like a 0.50 ERA instead of 2.21. 

Cowser leads the group in fWAR here at 2.9 (Miller's is 1.8). He is hitting .247/.329/.461 with 16 homers and 47 RBI. Luis Gil (2.3 fWAR, 2.9 bWAR) is 11-5 with a 3.20 ERA in 112 2/3 innings. 

Wells is one to watch. He's taken over as Yankees catcher and has now been hitting between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton -- talk about a cushy lineup spot, huh? In his last 27 games, Wells has hit .282/.396/.564. 

Langford has enough talent to go on a two-month heater and take this thing. Keith just hit .322/.404/.644 with seven homers and 17 RBI in July.

National League Rookie of the Year

The favorites: 

The only real question here is how Skenes pitches the rest of the way. Assuming he doesn't totally melt down, he's going to win the award. The 21-year-old Merrill, who moved to center field in spring training, has been great and deserves a look. He's simply run into a buzzsaw here ... so far.