Mets lefty Johan Santana has taken a symbolic step toward reclaiming his status as the Mets' unchallenged ace: he'll be the team's opening-day starter against the Braves on Thursday.
Santana missed the entire 2011 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn shoulder capsule, and, while his spring ERA is a solid 3.44, he's had some lapses in his control (seven walks in 18.1 innings). As a general rule, pitchers are never the same after a major shoulder operation, and Santana, at age 33 and having shown signs of decline even before the injury, likely won't be an exception.
Still, for a five-year span from 2004-08 Santana was perhaps the best pitcher in all of baseball, so the two-time Cy Young winner can decline substantially from previous levels and still be an asset, if not the dominator of yesteryear. Sure, he doesn't miss bats like he once did and has a stitched-on wing, but he also has a history of genuine greatness as a baseline.
The Mets owe Santana $49.5 million over the next two seasons, and then they'll likely cough up another $5.5 million to buy out his $25-million option for 2014 (provided that option doesn't automatically vest based on incentives). That's to say, Santana almost certainly won't provide value on the dollar, but, provided his arm holds up, he does figure to be the Mets' best starter. In fact, all but one of the leading projection systems tabs Santana for an ERA comfortably better than 4.00 in 2012.
Besides, if anyone can defy post-surgical expectations, it's Santana, owner of one of the best changeups you ever saw.
