The Braves come into Sunday with baseball's worst record at 5-18, though that is not exactly a surprise. Atlanta is in the middle of a massive rebuilding process and they were expected to be terrible in 2016.
As part of their ongoing rebuild, the club is reportedly looking to acquire additional draft picks through trades. They're willing to take on bad contracts to make it happen too.
Sources: Braves are desperately trying to "buy" tradable draft picks by offering to take on bad contracts if teams include picks as well.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 28, 2016
That's a smart idea and it has been done before. Just last year the Dodgers took Ryan Webb's $2.75 million salary off the Orioles' hands in exchange for the 74th overall pick in the draft. The O's wanted to dump the money and kicked in the pick to make it worthwhile for Los Angeles.
Atlanta's market for draft picks is fairly limited because not every draft pick is tradeable. The only picks that can be traded are 12 Competitive Balance Lottery picks. Those are extra picks MLB gives to small market/low revenue clubs each year. There are six Competitive Balance picks after the first round, and six more after the second round.
The Braves themselves own one of their 12 Competitive Balance picks -- they acquired it from the Marlins in the Alex Wood/Hector Olivera/Mat Latos three-team trade last July -- so really there are only 11 picks they can acquire right now. Here are the owners of those 11 picks, and a look at which bad contracts those teams may try to unload.
Reds (35th pick): The Reds are another rebuilding club and they figure to want to keep their high draft pick, so there's likely not a match here. I can't imagine the Braves would take on the $86 million owed to Homer Bailey through 2019 in exchange for one measly little draft picks, so that's not an option. Jay Bruce and the $13.5 million owed to him this year? That's possible. The problem is Bruce has actual trade value and won't need to be salary dumped. I don't see a fit with Cincinnati.
Athletics (37th pick): One name immediately jumps to mind here: Billy Butler. He is owed $10 million in both 2016 and 2017, and at this point he's been relegated to platoon DH duty. The A's would love to unload his salary. So much so they'd probably part with the 37th pick to make it happen. The Braves took on Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher in salary dumps last year and released both in spring training, eating the remaining money on their contracts. Would they take on Butler's deal and then simply release him in exchange for that 37th pick? I wouldn't rule it out.
The Dodgers, by the way, currently hold the 36th overall pick. That is a compensation pick for failing to sign 2015 supplemental first rounder Kyle Funkhouser and it can not be traded.
Rockies (38th pick): Colorado does not have any truly awful "oh man he need to get rid of this guy" contracts. They're not going to (and shouldn't) salary dump Carlos Gonzalez, and Jorge De La Rosa does have actual trade value as a league average-ish lefty. Giving up the 38th pick to shed Boone Logan's $6 million salary doesn't make sense. There's no real fit with the Rockies.
Diamondbacks (39th pick): A few weeks ago I would have though Yasmany Tomas, who is owed $63 million through 2020, would be a good candidate for a salary dump deal, but he currently owns a 119 OPS+ and five homers. The D-Backs are clearly trying to win right now, they wouldn't have added Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller otherwise, so I'm inclined to think they'll keep Tomas. Arizona doesn't have any other salary dump candidates, not unless they want to give up the 39th pick to shed the $6.5 million they're paying Aaron Hill to play in Milwaukee this year. That wouldn't be very smart.
Pirates (41st pick): The Pirates don't have a single bad contract on their books. Not one. Maybe the $9.55 million they owe Jonathon Niese? That's a real stretch. Niese isn't overpaid at all. Besides, the Pirates are the kind of team that actively looks to acquire draft picks, not trade them away. There's no match here. Next.
Padres (71st pick): Now we're in Competitive Balance Lottery Round B, and these picks are much less valuable because they're later in the draft. San Diego would happily part with that 71st pick to dump James Shields ($65 million through 2018) and/or Matt Kemp ($73 million through 2019), but taking on that much cash for a pick that low doesn't make any sense for the Braves. There's not enough reward there. Also, don't count on the Braves bringing Melvin Upton ($33.1 million through 2017) back either. It's tough to envision these two clubs matching up for a trade.
Indians (72nd pick): Like the Pirates, the Indians don't have any bad contracts. I guess maybe they could send the Braves the $15 million they're still paying Bourn and Swisher this season? The Indians do have a very tight budget and that $15 million would go a long away. That said, that obligation is going to be gone after the season. Is it worth giving up a pick, even the 72nd selection, to dump that $15 million when it's too late to spend it on free agents for 2016?
Twins (73rd pick): Possible fit alert! Ricky Nolasco has $25 million total coming to him from 2016-17 and surely the Twins would love to dump that. It not only clears payroll, it opens a full-time rotation spot for a younger pitcher like Alex Meyer or Tyler Duffey. The expected return on the 73rd overall pick is less than +2 WAR over six years of team control and I think that's worth giving up to unload Nolasco's deal. The Braves could also possibly flip Nolasco for a prospect or two at some point in the future if he strings together a few good starts. This one might work.
The 74th pick also belongs to the Twins. That's a compensation pick for failing to sign 2015 Competitive Balance Lottery pick Kyle Cody. As with the Dodgers and the Funkhouser pick, this pick can not be traded.
Brewers (75th pick): I'm sure the Brewers would happily give up that 75th overall pick to dump the $100 million (!) they owe Ryan Braun over the next five years. Good luck getting a team to agree to that though. A much more realistic possibility is Matt Garza, who, like Nolasco, is owed $25 million total from 2016-17. Everything I said about Nolasco applies to Garza: it's worth giving up the 75th to dump the money for the Brewers, and the Braves could possibly flip Garza for a prospect at a later time.
Orioles (76th pick): As I mentioned earlier, the Orioles traded the 74th pick last year as a way to get Webb's salary off the books, so we know they're open to such a deal. Also, the fact they traded that pick to get rid of only $2.75 million shows they don't value a pick in the mid-70s all that highly. How about Hyun Soo Kim, who is hitting well in limited action (270 OPS+) but is owed $7 million and is clearly not a Buck Showalter favorite, to Atlanta with that 76th pick?
Rays (77th pick): Tampa Bay only had one bad contract on the books and they've already eaten it by releasing James Loney. They're paying him $9.67 million this season. I guess they could send that obligation to the Braves, but it seems unlikely. The Rays would sooner live with the dead money than trade away a much-needed draft pick.
The deal that makes the most sense to me is with the A's for Butler, and that only works if the Braves are willing to either release Butler and eat the money, or stick him on the bench as a right-handed pinch-hitter. That's pretty much all he would be able to do with Freddie Freeman entrenched at first base.
The Nolasco and Garza deals sound good in a vacuum. I think the Twins and Brewers would rather hold onto them for the time being though, and hope they rebuild some value so they could trade them for a prospect or two down the line. Atlanta's best chance at adding a pick this year may be as part of a larger trade, similar to the Wood/Olivera/Latos three-team deal last summer. It's difficult to find a match for a straight salary dump.
