With seven weeks to play in the regular season, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge is once again playing at an MVP level. He leads all players with 8.2 WAR and is hitting a stout .328/.462/.699 with 42 home runs. He's hit seven more home runs than any other player, leads in on-base percentage by 33 points, and leads in slugging percentage by 83 points. Judge is a marvel.
And because of that, teams are increasingly unwilling to pitch to Judge not just with the game on the line, but in any situation. Last weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays intentionally walked Judge with two outs and the bases empty in the second inning. The Blue Jays intentionally walked Judge four times in the three-game series. When they pitched to him, he went 5 for 9 with two homers.
"I honestly didn't feel like seeing him swing. That was kind of it," Blue Jays manager John Schneider said about the decision to intentionally walk Judge with the bases empty in the second inning (via ESPN). "He's in a different category I think than anyone else in the league, where he can just flip the script of a game with one swing."
That was the first time a player had been intentionally walked with the bases empty in the first two innings of a game since the then-California Angels intentionally walked Glenn Borgmann in the second inning on Aug. 10, 1972. Borgmann, a light-hitting catcher with the Minnesota Twins, was put on to bring the pitcher to the plate. That was the year before the AL adopted the DH.
Starting with that second-inning free pass against Toronto, Judge has been intentionally walked six times in his last eight games. He is only the third Yankee to be intentionally walked six times in an eight game span, joining Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle (1956) and Robinson Canó (2011). Five teams have received six or fewer intentional walks this season. Judge has six in eight games.
"It sucks. You want him at the plate," Juan Soto, who hits ahead of Judge in the lineup, said last weekend (via The Athletic). "I'm doing my best to put him up and you see them pass him over. It just really makes me mad. I don't like that. I want them to challenge him and see what he can really do. It is what it is. It's part of the game. They're trying to win too, so you respect that."
Why are teams walking Judge so much lately? Well, that's obvious, but what can the Yankees do about it? Here's what you need to know about Judge as he begins to get the Barry Bonds treatment.
The IBB pace is on the rise
Fun fact: Judge leads the league in intentional walks, but not outright. He's been intentionally walked 13 times this year, same as Houston Astros masher Yordan Alvarez. Three others -- Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper, and Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager -- have been intentionally walked at least 10 times each as well.
Judge's intentional walk total does not include all the times he is obviously pitched around -- he leads baseball with 17 four-pitch walks, many of which were an "unintentional intentional" walk -- and what makes his intentional walk total notable is a) the pace is rapidly increasing, and b) the intentional walks are beginning to happen in uncommon situations. Judge has been intentionally walked six times in his last eight games. The game situations:
| Date | Opponent | Inning | Score | Baserunners | Outs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug. 3 | Blue Jays | 2 | 4-1 Yankees | Bases empty | 2 |
Aug. 4 | Blue Jays | 5 | 2-0 Blue Jays | Runner on 1st | 2 |
Aug. 4 | Blue Jays | 7 | 3-2 Yankees | Bases empty | 0 |
Aug. 4 | Blue Jays | 8 | 3-3 tie | 2nd and 3rd | 2 |
Aug. 5 | Angels | 8 | 5-2 Yankees | Bases empty | 2 |
Aug. 11 | Rangers | 5 | 2-0 Yankees | Runner on 3rd | 2 |
First base open with two outs in the eighth inning of a tie game? That's a no-brainer. You put Judge on. But three times in the last eight games Judge has been intentionally walked with the bases empty, including once to lead off the seventh inning in a one-run game! The Blue Jays were more concerned about Judge hitting a solo homer in that seventh inning on Aug. 4 than they were about setting up the Yankees for a potential big inning.
Three times in the last eight games Judge has been intentionally walked with the bases empty. There were three intentional walks with the bases empty all last season (including one to Judge). There were two in 2022 and two in 2021. Now it's happened to Judge three times in a little more than the last week (and to no other hitter in 2024). It's not just that he's being intentionally walked more often. He's been intentionally walked in situations that don't really call for intentional walks. Teams flat out refuse to pitch to him.
Teams do it because it's working
Judge has been intentionally walked 13 times this season. Do you know how many times he's come around to score after an intentional walk? Only twice. Back on April 14, the Cleveland Guardians intentionally walked Judge leading off the tenth inning to set up the double play with the automatic runner at second base. That's as close to an automatic intentional walk situation as it gets. Anthony Rizzo drove in Judge with a single two batters later.
The other instance came this past Sunday. The Rangers intentionally walked Judge with a runner on third and two outs -- a pretty obvious intentional walk situation, I'd say -- and Giancarlo Stanton followed with a three-run home run.
Judge not scoring after his intentional walks of course has more to do with his teammates than Judge himself. Rookie catcher Austin Wells has been great the last few weeks, slashing .305/.398/.526 with five home runs in his last 30 games, and he's recently settled into the cleanup spot behind Judge. Before Wells, the cleanup spot was a revolving door that included Rizzo, Stanton, and even Alex Verdugo for a bit.
"I mean, if I was them I'd be walking Judge too," Wells said recently (via ESPN). "For me, I'm not taking it personal, but I look forward to the challenge."
Judge has been unbelievable as the No. 3 hitter and the 4-5-6 hitters behind him have been wholly inadequate. Here are the numbers on New York's 4-5-6 hitters:
| Yankees | MLB average for 4-5-6 hitters | |
|---|---|---|
Batting average | .235 (23rd in MLB) | .244 |
On-base percentage | .299 (24th in MLB) | .312 |
Slugging percentage | .406 (13th in MLB) | .405 |
Home runs | 59 (5th in MLB) | 46 |
As Wells said, why wouldn't you intentionally walk Judge when that's what the guys hitting directly behind him have done this season? We're in August now. This is not some two- or three-week blip in April. This is more than four months of below-average production from the middle of the lineup.
Wells' emergence, Stanton returning from his hamstring injury, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. coming over at the deadline are reasons to believe the 4-5-6 spots will be more productive going forward, but Judge's intentional walk pace is still increasing. Teams remain unconvinced the middle of the order will make them pay for walking Judge, or they at least feel better with their chances against those guys. Judge is getting walked so much because it works. It's preventing runs.
What can the Yankees do about it?
To state the obvious, the best ways to cut down on Judge's intentional walks is to get runners on base in front of him, and to drive him in after he's intentionally walked. The former will force teams to pitch to him (in theory) and the latter will make teams think twice about putting him on. Frankly I'm not sure any number of intentional walks scoring would get him pitches to hit. But this could help.
Beyond that, the Yankees should consider flipping Judge and Soto in the lineup. Soto hits second, Judge hits third, and there has been a revolving door in the leadoff spot. Put Soto, who is slashing an incredible .304/.429/.589 this year, behind Judge and suddenly putting Judge on intentionally is less appealing because you have to face Soto with a runner(s) on. To put it another way, Soto is best able to make the other team pay for those intentional walks. He's most likely to drive Judge in among Yankees hitters.
"Thought about it over the last couple weeks a little bit," Yankees manager Aaron Boone said about possibly flipping Judge and Soto. "I would never say never. Not ready to do it right now, but it's something that I'd at least consider. And it kind of depends like -- now getting Giancarlo back in the mix, goes it make sense from a lineup construction as a whole, behind able to right/left/right/left a bit more, whereas more right now when we're against a righty, we're three out of four are lefties at the top. You can split some things up, but it's something that I've at least thought about."
It's possible flipping Judge and Soto in the lineup will just shift the intentional walks from Judge to Soto. Instead of walking Judge intentionally, opposing teams will walk Soto intentionally, and challenge the guys in the lineup behind him to get it done. And I think that would be fine? Soto is amazing, but Judge is the better hitter. That's not an insult. If teams are only going to pitch to one of the two, you'd rather Judge swing the bat, right? There's always a chance flipping Judge and Soto stops the intentional walks entirely too.
The Yankees have batted Judge leadoff at times over the years. Most notably, he led off 23 of New York's final 24 games in 2022, and the one game he didn't lead off was a meaningless Game 162, when he didn't play because the Yankees had already clinched everything they could clinch. The Yankees hit Judge leadoff not to get him more at-bats as he chased 62 home runs, but because the offense really struggled in the second half, and they wanted to get him as many at-bats as possible. That was their ticket to more offense. More Judge, more offense.
With Judge having leadoff experience -- he's a career .352/.466/.711 hitter in 161 plate appearances batting leadoff -- and the intentional walks coming in bunches, the Yankees could try this lineup:
1. Aaron Judge
2. Juan Soto
3-9. Everyone else
That gets Judge the most at-bats, and if the other team intentionally walks him, Soto hits with at least one runner on base. It's not like the Yankees have a great leadoff hitter. Their leadoff hitters are slashing .231/.280/.363 this season and Anthony Volpe leads them in starts in that position. The Yankees don't have Mookie Betts or Francisco Lindor or someone like that leading off. Batting Judge and Soto atop the lineup and getting them the most at-bats is not some ridiculous strategy. It's common sense, really.
I'm not sure putting Soto behind Judge will cut down on the intentional walks. Judge is on another level right now, the gap between him and the second best hitter in baseball is the largest that gap has been in some time, and teams might just be willing to take their chances with Soto instead. But don't the Yankees have to find out? Maybe flipping them in the lineup does reduce the number of intentional walks. If they continue at this pace, the Yankees will have no choice but to try Judge before Soto instead of vice versa.
During his MVP season in 2022, Judge was intentionally walked 19 times all season, including 11 times in the team's last 37 games. The postseason races are heating up and games are becoming more important, and opposing teams simply aren't going to pitch to Judge in important situations. Heck, they won't to him in any situation. The sport allows you to take the bat out of his hands. It's on Judge's teammates to pick up the slack, and on Judge to do damage when he does get a chance to swing the bat. Neutralize Judge and you can neutralize the Yankees. It's a winning strategy, and it will continue.
"He's not perfect, but he's bad. You know like Michael Jackson bad? He's bad," Angels manager Ron Washington said about Judge last week (via ESPN). "You just can't go mano a mano with him unless you necessarily have to. If you got to go mano a mano, you go mano a mano. But if you don't have to, I'm sorry, you gotta take the bat out of his hand, and somebody else got to beat us. And I don't really care what anybody says after that."
