Monday was a great night for us, so long as you played along with me. Thanks to the Rangers' over hitting in the first inning(!), the Phillies' over hitting in the third and Trea Turner, again, coming through (also in the third inning), we cashed all three tickets without having to sweat them out.
That runs the tally here in Best Bets for the playoffs to 19-10.
Tuesday seems like a good day to stay hot.
Diamondbacks (+141) at Phillies (-165), 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 1 felt a lot more lopsided than the final score looked, as the Phillies jumped out to a 5-0 lead before the Diamondbacks climbed back to within 5-3 and battled late. Both of these teams have two frontline starting pitchers who they need to serve as workhorses and we get the No. 2s here.
The plays: Phillies over 4.5 runs (+110), Trea Turner over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-135), Bryce Harper over 0.5 walks (+100)
Like Zac Gallen in Game 1, Kelly's road splits are far worse than his numbers at home. He had a 4.07 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road this season, driven by high walk and home run rates. That's trouble against this Phillies offense. Expect them to jump on Kelly early. They've scored 24 combined runs in the first four innings in their seven playoff games so far.
The way the Phillies are swinging the bats at home, I love their over again. They averaged 5.16 runs per game at home in the regular season and 5.8 per game in the playoffs.
On Turner, we're 7-0 on this prop with him so far in the playoffs which means I'm playing it every single game until he tells me otherwise. He was one of baseball's hottest hitters in the final two months of the regular season and he's now hitting .500/.533/.893 with five doubles, two home runs, three RBI and six runs in seven playoff games. He's also in that cushy second spot in the lineup. If you want something on the specific matchup, Turner is 9 for 21 (.429) with three doubles and six RBI in his career against Kelly.
As for Harper, I'm not sure how much longer teams are going to pitch to him in the postseason. In his last 23 playoff games, he's hitting .378/.469/.829 with seven doubles, 10 homers and 20 RBI. Plus, Alec Bohm is hitting behind him and doesn't look particularly scary right now. It's easy to envision a scenario where Turner is on second base and the D-backs elect to just put Harper on and deal with Bohm. Even if it's not an intentional walk, Harper draws lots of walks (eight in the last six games) while Kelly offers plenty on the road. All we need is one.